Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Hit & Split Late Pick 4 Analysis | Wednesday, April 23, 2025

Closing week at Keeneland runs today through Friday and we’ve got the final 1/ST BET and Xpressbet Hit & Split promotion on the late pick 4 this afternoon. Earn your share of 2 Million 1/ST Rewards points in addition to your parimutuel winnings if successful.

Here’s my overview of the sequence.

Race 5
#3 Sharp Swinger is the 8-5 morning line favorite and poised to win his third straight. He’s nearly flawless on dirt and it’s the synthetic and turf races on his form that created any unsatisfying runs. Luis Saez puts him right into the mix from the outset with other logical speeds #2 Run of the House and #6 Take Five Charlie. #1 Corman could benefit and be the one to fear late – at a minimum a good back half of the exacta. Play more tickets with Sharp Swinger on top.

Race 6
#4 Tarneema knocked on the door at Gulfstream for Brendan Walsh, who could shock the stand with a leading trainer title with a good closing week. He’s 1 win behind Wesley Ward and Brad Cox and has the numbers this week to make it possible. #6 Sugaree finished behind Tarneema last out in Florida, but gets a big rider move to Flavien Prat, who should fit her late-running style better than front-end turf ace Javier Castellano had in the past. #5 Parish Lane goes for an Eddie Kenneally barn having perhaps his best Keeneland meet ever and is proven over the 1-1/2 miles journey. #9 Faith Understood is the only course winner in the lineup and respect the Jonathan Thomas outfit on turf.

Race 7
#5 Little Jamie and #6 Landed were pretty evenly matched in a similar race over this track and distance during the 2024 Spring Meet and while Landed’s form has been better since, Little Jamie offers the value. I think she’ll be higher than the morning line. #1 Chilled runs her best locally and hustles back after an opening-week DQ from the victory for a barn not known for such quick action – interesting.

Race 8
My key play late in the day is the 8-1 morning line chance #6 Athaliah and I’ll lean on her to close the pick 4 solo. Flavien Prat hops aboard for George Weaver on a filly who stayed in an off-the-turf event here opening week and just ran even-steven over 9 furlongs without having to be exerted at any point. That should serve as a great afternoon workout of sorts for this turf mile in which I expect 8-5 morning line favorite #2 Just So Pretty to once again come up flat in the lane.

The Ticket:
3,1 with 4,6,5,9 with 5,6,1 with 6 = $12 for 50 cents

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