Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.
Our first 3 longshot plays opening day all ran second, so we’re dialed in. There simply aren’t the volume of longshots that stood out to me on the Saturday card, which is to be expected somewhat given the number of elite stakes races and field sizes. Here is the quartet will try to get home.
Race 1:
#6 Noble Anthem (12-1 ML) – Slight cut-backs in trip do well at this class level and distance and this colt has been firing morning bullets over the track at Keeneland. Since going long at Indy, he returned quickly to the workout tab just 9 days after that last start (typically 14 days), indicating sharpness.
Race 5:
#5 Groveland (20-1 ML) – Pressed a wicked pace at Colonial last time and did better-than-it-looks to hold third. Colonial runners offered a flat-bet profit on all starters at last year’s Fall Meet. Street Sense offspring relish the Keeneland main track, so could enjoy the footing in his first local start.
Race 6:
#4 Nobals (15-1 ML) – Veteran 7-year-old is a past Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner (pictured) and seemed to get a little of that spark back late in his return try at Saratoga. Spa-prepped horses have won this stakes 3 of the last 4 years and this one’s pace versatility could play important against speedy Joe Sheisty and Doncho as to when to make a pouncing move.
Race 10:
#8 Kupuna (15-1 ML) - Second start since a freshening and loved the Bernard Baruch win with a different running style than usually employed. Showed he's tied on and this prep path has been very successful in this race in past years. Favorites have won this stakes just once in the last 11 years (average winner 9-1 during that span), so why not fish even if the favorites look to be of quality?
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