Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Blue Grass Stakes Saturday Hit & Split Late Pick 4 Analysis

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Saturday’s Keeneland late pick 4 has a $2,500 Hit & Split promotion when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The all-stakes sequence begins in Race 8 and concludes with the $1.25 million Blue Grass. Also note the $10 money-back special on the Race 11 Blue Grass. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third.
Let’s get to work.

Race 8: Appalachian Stakes

#01 Imaginationthelady was 1 of an incredible 6 stakes winners last Fall Meet alone at Keeneland sired by Not This Time. Expect her to come back running over a course she’s liked. Her Brendan Walsh stablemate Lion Lake has the best BRIS late pace figures in the field and nailed #9 Sister Troienne on the line last time over a Gulfstream turf course that plays speedier than Keeneland’s. Give me the Walsh duo with Lion Lake the likely better price for intra-race bets.

Race 9: Madison Stakes

Against the favorites here who project into a strong pace and heavily backing #4 Ragtime (5-1 ML) and Clicquot (6-1 ML). The series of triple-digit BRIS late pace figures for Ragtime should shine in the final yards. Speaking of pace figures, no less than 6 of these Madison entrants ran 100-plus BRIS early pace figs in their most-recent start, ensuring we will get a ton of pace to tackle.

Race 10: Shakertown Stakes

My least confident of the late pick 4 races, I’ll get some coverage in this full-field turf sprint. #4 Yellow Card is well-drawn and has been on the road before with a strong second at Kentucky Downs last year. The Californian can play here at 10-1 ML. Also at a price is 15-1 ML offering #9 No Nay Hudson. You just don’t see that kind of price on Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario in Keeneland turf sprints, where they’re absolutely dominant, so expect the price to shorten. No Nay Hudson’s last 2 BRIS late pace figures are strong in this race comparatively. #2 My Boy Prince is equally good late on figs, a super-classy sort who will try not to get buried inside but is a major threat at 6-1 ML. Finally, #8 Litigation, the 4-1 lukewarm ML choice may be best of all on late pace figures, has won 3 of his last 4 for Brian Lynch, who won here opening day and is a stalwart in turf sprints. I wasn’t bullish on #12 Usually Wrong even with his string of victories of late, but the Fair Grounds sprinters were highly effective here opening day and I’m not going to spread this deep without using him.

Race 11: Blue Grass Stakes

The favorites have total run of this race as #4 Reagan’s Honor will be up top with every chance to underscore his impressive allowance win at Fair Grounds. Morning line chalk #6 Further Ado would be absolutely no surprise for a Brad Cox barn that’s been on fire with 3YOs in recent weeks and this colt ran a career-best his only trip to Lexington. I just can’t see anyone else winning the Blue Grass. I was tempted to single Reagan’s Honor, but given the prices we have in the sequence, we can still get a strong return with Further Ado winning. Playing multiple tickets, use Reagan’s Honor on more of those.

The Ticket:

8,10 with 4,3 with 9,4,8,2,12 with 4,6 = $20 for each $0.50.

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