Jeremy Plonk: $46K Carryover Pick 5 Analysis for Tampa Bay Downs | Friday, January 31, 2025

Tampa Bay Downs boasts a $46,569 carryover in its late pick 5 pool for Friday. The 50-cent wager takes flight in Races 5-9 and gets underway at approximately 2:18 pm ET. Beautiful conditions are forecasted with sunny skies and temps just below the 80-degree mark.

Let’s get to work.

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | maiden claiming


The Skinny: 10 are included in the main body of this turf mile with 4 also-eligibles. The 2-1 morning line favorite #3 Classicals Finale already has had 9 cracks at breaking her maiden, including 2 at this claiming price and distance already at the meeting. Her last 3 bids on turf are all capable of winning this, however, given the rest of the field has a brutal 12: 0-0-0 record on grass and not a single defeat less than 7 lengths. Also-eligibles #12 Goonie and #14 Slew Crown were at least competitive vs. similar last time, but would have to overcome outside post draws. The only X-factor is first-time starter #9 Crafty Collector for strong local trainer Gerald Bennett, who has good marks with maiden claimers and first-time turfers.

Horses Included: #3 Classicals Finale, #9 Crafty Collector

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 6 | claiming

The Skinny: Field of 8 going 7 furlongs on dirt in open $10K claiming conditions. 12-time winner #5 Court and Spark has been beaten favorite in his last 2, but the Presque Isle synthetic specialist did wire $6,250 claimers over this Tampa 7F trek in December. Finishing late has been the issue, and #4 Action Seeker softened him up Jan. 5. If that one doesn’t break, Court and Spark could be loose on the front. #6 Action of Storms got a needed confidence boost last time on a class drop while removing blinkers. He changes barns from one high-percentage outfit to another but keeps the blinkers off. These two favorites should be the early-late combo needed.

Horses Included: #5 Court and Spark, #6 Action of Storms

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 7 | maiden special weight

The Skinny: Turf mile with 10 going, and these are fillies/mares 4-years-old and older, so you’re dealing with broodmare prospects trying to get that graduate moniker before going to their next career, increasing their value in the shed. #3 Fundamentally is clearly in that camp after nibbling at top prizes at Aqueduct and Gulfstream for Chad Brown. Same goes for the delayed debuts of #7 Strike Up for Vickie Oliver and #8 Take Dat for Shug McGaughey. Oliver rarely wins with a rookie, and #6 Enchant has had a bunch of chances with narrow losses and seems to always find one better. Price shot #2 Life’s Saga (10-1 ML) returns for a strong layoff barn.

Horses Included: #3 Fundamentally, #8 Take Dat, #2 Life’s Saga

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 8 | allowance

The Skinny: Nine older horses go 1-1/16 miles on dirt as 2024 Mucho Macho Man Stakes winner #2 Otello tries to get back on track in his second start since June for Christophe Clement. He’s without any real speed, so the way to beat him is with front-end brilliance. The Kathleen O’Connell-trained pair of #3 Sir Saffer and #5 Fortysixcounts were a length apart at the wire vs. similar Jan. 11 and project to be in the hunt throughout. I’ll bank on one of them getting the jump.

Horses Included: #3 Sir Saffer, #5 Fortysixcounts

Tampa Bay Downs | Race 9 | allowance

The Skinny: Turf sprinters clash in a main body of 10 runners. Jockeys Pablo Morales (#5 Dorothy Crowfoot) and Antonio Gallardo (#10 Katies a Lady) have been the track’s best turf sprint pilots over the past 5 years and I like both of their charges here. Dorothy Crowfoot goes for turf sprint specialist trainer Larry Rivelli, while Katie s a Lady has superb local turf form routing with speed and cuts back in distance while making a very interesting jockey change for a 15-1 morning line price.

Horses Included: #5 Dorothy Crowfoot, #10 Katies a Lady

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