Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” - National Best Plays
(listed in chronological order)
Laurel Park – 5th race: 6-Lady Ensign (7/2). Post time: 2:29PM ET
Though a one-turn mile might be stretching her limit, this maiden sophomore filly clearly projects as the controlling speed, and if she can switch off early while on the front end she just might be able to wire the field. The blinkers that are being added should keep her straight and true – something that she’s had a hard time with in her first two starts – and though she has failed as the favorite in her both of her outings we’re willing to give the daughter of Midshipman one more chance based on the projected race flow. In a field lacking in effective closers, let’s gamble that she can get the trip while offering reasonable wagering value at 7/2 on the morning line.
Ellis Park – 5th race: 6-Promise Me a Ride (6-1). Post time: 1:45PM CT
A $400,000 Keeneland 2-year-old in training purchase last year, this Brad Cox-trained sophomore won his debut like a real nice prospect, scoring handsomely in an off-the-turf route affair at Fair Grounds in mid-March. However, his next start was a disaster. After blowing his best chance at the start and pulling hard during the early stages, the son of Mastery faded out of the picture to finish far back in a stakes-quality allowance race on Derby Day at Churchill Downs, a poor outing that we’re willing to dismiss. Today, with the ever-popular blinkers off angle, he should return to form in his first try on grass (bred for it), so if he breaks cleanly and settles early he’s very likely to run back to his excellent debut score. One of the barn’s “go-to” riders takes the call, so everything has lined up nicely. Let’s make him a solid play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics and hope to get close to his morning line of 6-1.
Pleasanton – 8th race: 9-Breakfast Ride (12-1). Post time: 5:25PM PT
This is strictly a long shot play. Freshened since January, the son of Distorted Humor returns for trainer John Sadler (strong stats with layoff runners) in this year’s edition of the Pleasanton Mile following a series of impressive workouts at Santa Anita that should have him plenty tight and ready. A good fit at this level on speed figures and with the versatility to win on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position, the 4-year-old colt projects to settle just off the leaders outside (always the best part of this main track) during the early stages then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home under Southern California-based jockey Edwin Maldonado. He is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and should be every bit of that at post time. We’ll take a shot in a tough, competitive event.
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