Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Donner Lake; 9-Queen’s Code; 6-Offlee Icy
Forecast: California-bred maidens meet over a mile on grass in the closing day lid-lifter that offers three possibilities. Donner Lake makes his first start since November and if he returns as well as he left the M. McCarthy-trained colt should be hard to beat. In the money in three of four career starts with numbers that match up well at this level, the son of Hard Spun has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and work tab at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit and ready. With leading rider J. Hernandez taking the call and at 3-1 on the morning line, we’ll put him on top. Queen’s Code returned off a year layoff to miss by a nose with a career top effort vs. similar over the local lawn last month, and if doesn’t bounce the Desert Code gelding will be the one to fear most. He was almost five lengths clear of the rest in that race and not much more will be needed today. Offlee Icy is a first-timer from the J. Sadler barn with a decent series of drills at Los Alamitos. He’s worth including somewhere on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Bag’s Gold; 1-Hotrod Ride
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a modest maiden $50,000 claiming main track miler that offers little to work with. Bag’s Gold has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern that we like plus numbers that are moving in the right direction, and with only two prior outings he probably has more room to improve than the others. Based on pedigree, the son of Vronsky should be able to handle two turns. Hotrod Ride lands the good rail, should enjoy a ground-saving trip, has gradually improving form, and may be the most dangerous of the late runners. If you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead, but this is a race we’d rather not get too involved in.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Queen Of the Temple; 1-Respect My Candor
Forecast: Queen Ofthe Temple (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) got a piece of valuable black type when finishing third of five in the Santa Barbara S.-G3 last time out and earned a career top speed figure in doing so. Dropping to the first-level allowance ranks and returning to the distance of her maiden win two runs back, the daughter of Temple City appears capable of regaining her winning form. It’ll be interesting to see what effect, if any, the addition of blinkers for the first time has on her. Respect My Candor (TOC=6-1; ML=5-1) stretches out for the first time and surely will try gate-to-wire tactics from her favorable inside draw. She earned a career top speed figure when easily outrunning $25,000 claiming foes sprinting over the local lawn last month, and if she’s ever going to stay two turns, it most likely will be in her first attempt. We’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play with preference on top Queen Ofthe Temple.
Notable Workouts:
Queen Ofthe Temple (June 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B
Turf specialist worked on the main track and was ridden pretty good through the lane and responded in okay fashion, final quarter mile in :25.1. Should appreciate a turn back in trip and a return to the allowance ranks.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Indict the Tiger; 2-Miss Lucilla
Forecast: This is a below par field of California-bred maiden juveniles, and no result would surprise, so tread lightly. Indict the Tiger was well-backed (5/2) in his debut, but after flashing speed to the turn, the son of Smiling Tiger packed it in. Back in 15 days, the L. Mendez-trained colt shows a bullet three furlong blowout (:35 1/5, fastest of 24) six days ago, so let’s assume that whatever issue he had in his first outing has been corrected. Assuming he breaks cleanly from the rail, he should be handed the role as the controlling speed. Miss Lucilla, a filly tackling the boys just as she did in her first start in the same race our top pick exits, overcame a slow start from the rail to stay on with interest and wind up fourth in a fairly promising run. She has every right to improve and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but without a great deal of confidence.
Notable Workouts:
Theuntouchableone (May 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02hg). Grade: C+
In blinkers, worked from gate between Man Child and Zookeeper (all same time) and was asked and ridden throughout, splits of :24 flat, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:02 flat, tiring late, with the trio finishing together when pulled up at the eighth pole. Danzing Candy juvenile looks like a maiden claiming type at this stage.
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Whobeterthantiger (June 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: C+
Not really asked much down the lane but wound up almost a half-length behind workmate (Unnamed, worked under dam’s name Siqueira, same time), final half mile in :23.2 and :48.3 for B. Koriner. Fair to moderate type at this stage.
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Hacking It Up (May 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2hg). Grade: C+
Stride-for-stride outside Eddie’s Las (same time) for D. O’Neill, splits of :24.4, :37 flat and :49.2, not really asked much but appearing to lug out a bit on the turn. May have a bit of run but no world beater at this stage.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Neige Blanche
Forecast: Simply put, Neige Blanche (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) lays over the field in this year’s edition of the Possibly Perfect S. for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs on grass. Fresh from a sharp score in the Santa Barbara S.-G3 over this course and distance last month, the French-bred mare has captured five of her last eight starts and earned a career top speed figure in her most recent outing. With a steady, healthy series of works to tick her over, the L. Powell-trained mare should be primed for another major effort, but at 6/5 on the morning line she isn’t likely to offer any rea value, other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 4-Besame Mucho; 1-Eleniak
Forecast : Bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6, which has a mandatory payoff today, closing day. Serious players most likely will spread this race; small ticket players might want to use just the two listed above. At this distance, Besame Mucho may finally be able to stick it out after having every chance in his last four starts but lacking the necessary late punch to seal the deal. He makes what most would consider a negative trainer change via the claim box, from M. Glatt to C. Treece, but given the projected pace scenario the son of Kantharos is clearly the one to catch and beat. Eleniak makes his first start in a year and returns as a gelding for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. The V. Cerin-trained son of Creative Cause has worked okay for his return after chasing maiden special weight foes in his only outing. He can run with these.
Notable Workouts:
Eleniak (June 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: C+
Wasn’t really asked much while finishing a neck behind Speed Lane (same time, breezing), final quarter mile in :25.3. Been away for exactly a year, returns as a gelding and may have a small look in a modest maiden claimer.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 8-Rijeka; 5-Red King
Forecast: We have a strong hunch that trainer P. D’Amato will win this year’s San Juan Capistrano S.-G3, but with which of his two entrants? Red King (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) won this race two years ago and finished a solid third last year, so this mile and three-quarter marathon is his kind of his race. Stable mate Rijeka (TOC=8/5; ML=7/2) has never run this far but we suspect he’ll handle the trip just fine. ‘King is exiting tougher races and could easily go lower than his morning line of 5/2, but Rijeka is fresh from a smart score over the local lawn and should be primed for a career top performance in his third start off a layoff. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Rijeka slightly on top, if for no other reason that he’ll most likely be a better price.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Fast Buck; 5-Southern Horse; 12-Goliad
Forecast: Fast Buck (TOC=4-1; ML=5/2) is perfect in two outings over the Santa Anita turf course, winning a maiden race impressively in late March in just his second career start and then duplicating that performance by taking a first-level allowance state-bred dash at this six furlong trip the following month. Today he tackles open company but based on his speed figures he should be quite capable of extending his streak to threat, especially in a field that lacks his kind of early zip. Southern Horse (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) has developed into a prototype late-running turf sprinter, and in his present form the ex-stakes performer from Ireland will be bearing down strongly in the final furlong. The main concern is that he loses regular pilot J. Hernandez, who jumps off to ride the R. Mandella-trained comebacker Goliad (TOC=5/2; ML=6-1). The War Front gelding has run well over this course in the past, can fire fresh (he won his debut), and hails from a barn that has superb stats with layoff runners (25% with a strong ROI). Additionally, the works indicate he is fit and ready.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Fast Buck; 5-Southern Horse; 12-Goliad
Forecast: Hero Status always has been well regarded, having gone favored in both of his starts to date. Though he wound up a disappointing third (beaten 10 lengths) in his debut, the son of Flatter lost little in defeat when second to subsequent Affirmed S.-G3 winner Hopper in his most recent start and now should be ready to leave the maiden ranks. The M. Glatt-trained colt continues to impress in the morning and projects to settle outside in a pace prompting position and then kick on with it when asked. Multi Platinum is a first-timer with a good series of drills for S. McCarthy and is worth including on your ticket as well. The rail post does him no good, but if he can work out a clean trip the son of Runhappy should be highly competitive at 5-1 on the morning line for an outfit that hits a 22% with a massive ROI with debut runners. Famous Star, third in the same race Hero Status just finished second in, adds blinkers for the first time and will leave from a cozy outside draw. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
Multi Platinum (June 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h). Grade: B
A tad high-headed but was decent enough for S. McCarthy, mostly on his own, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.4, solid drill while gearing up for his debut. Should be competitive with older maiden special weight types in his debut, appears plenty fit.
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Pray for Me Ray (June 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B-
Chased home Rip City (4f, :49h) while coming the final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.4, never really asked much in a nothing-special type of drill. Not a speed type, may need a route of ground and experience before showing his best.
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Hero Status (June 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
Ridden a bit late and responded well enough, final quarter in a sharp :23.4 while looking improved for M. Glatt. Always has trained like a nice prospect, might finally be figuring things out.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:42 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 2-Del Mar Drama; 4-Speed Lane; 9-After Midnight
Forecast: Here’s a downhill turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that is challenging, to say the least. Include the three listed above and anything else that catches your eye. Del Mar Drama (TOC=5/2; ML=6-1) has proven to be most dangerous as a turf sprinter and can win on the lead or from off the pace, so she should enjoy the Hillside course. She earned a career top number when dominating a starter’s allowance field over the flat course last month and a similar performance today puts her right there at 6-1 on the morning line. Speed Lane (TOC=10-1; ML=4-1) has looked good in the a.m. for V. Cerin while gearing up for her first outing in nearly a year. The Eastern shipper has hit the board in eight of 11 starts and seems likely to be better now for this outfit than she was last year. Look for her to be rolling late. Yet another comebacker to consider is After Midnight (TOC=10-1; ML=6-1), away since September but training sharply for C. Gaines. She has the kind of early zip that might make her tough to catch if she’s not pressured early and has numbers that fit and for a barn that has off-the-charts stats with the layoff angle.
Notable Workouts:
Speed Lane (June 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B
Inside V. Cerin stable mate Eleniak (same time) and was always going the better of the two, finishing with something left and without being asked at all, final quarter in :25.3. Been away for almost a year but appears to be returning in good shape.
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Scenic Masterpiece (June 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1H TT). Grade B-
In blinkers, ridden hard through the lane in solo training track drill for J. Wong, final quarter mile in :24 flat. Maintains her form, should get tested on the raise.
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After Midnight (June 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B
Strictly on her own through the lane, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :35.4, quite nice. Been away since last September but is training well and could be a better type this time around for C. Gaines. Has all of her conditions.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:12 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Hong Kong Harry; 3-Vanzzy
Forecast: Hong Kong Harry has won both of his local outings with authority and today gets tested for class in this year’s renewal of the American S.-G3. Though both of his U.S. victories were accomplished over nine furlongs, this turn back to a mile shouldn’t be an issue and from his good inside draw the Irish-bred gelding projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip. Vanzzy ran huge up north when second in the San Francisco Mile while continuing his improving pattern. He doesn’t have a great turn of foot and is most effective when in the fray throughout, so his best chance is to be close up throughout and then grind it out late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Tripoli (June 12, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B
Picked him up at the five furlong pole and was mostly on his own throughout, splits of :24.2, :35.4 and 1:00.1 to the wire, a few ticks slower than given, and then galloped out to the seven furlong pole in 1:13.4 on our watches. Hard to say how cranked up he is, probably being trained to peak at Del Mar.
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