JEFF SIEGEL'S PREAKNESS STAKES DAY ANALYSIS

Written by:
Jeff Siegel
Published on:
October 21, 2020
Forecast: Authentic won the Kentucky Derby-G1 virtually gate-to-wire and similar front-running tactics are sure to be employed again in a race that could have slightly more pace pressure than the race in Louisville.

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Golden Voice; 4-Domain Expertise

Forecast: Domain Expertise displayed enough promise in her debut in a maiden race at Saratoga last month to rate top billing in this listed stakes over a middle distance on turf for juvenile fillies. Beaten a half-length while more than three clear of the rest and earning a nice speed figure in that race, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy foregoes what would have been easy pickings in a maiden affair to seek black type in what we view as a show of confidence by trainer C. Brown. In a field without much known speed she could find herself on or near the lead throughout. Golden Voice graduated in good style at Kentucky Downs last month while continuing her improving pattern, and with another forward move could make a serious run for a repeat score. While the bulk of our action will go to our top pick, ‘Voice might be worth consideration as a back-up or saver on your rolling exotic ticket.


RACE 2: Post: 11:35 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Juliet Foxtrot; 3-She’sonthewarpath

Forecast: Juliet Foxtrot, exiting seven consecutive graded stakes races (three of them Grade 1’s), receives much appreciated class relief today in this year’s edition of the Gallorette S.-G3. Consistently fast on numbers and with the kind of tactical speed that ensures an ideal pace-prompting, ground-saving trip from her favorable inside draw, the B. Cox-trained English bred mare is legitimately priced at 7/5 on the morning line as the sure-fire favorite one to beat. Small ticket players should give her strong consideration as a potential rolling exotic single. She’sonthewarpath, a genuine and versatile middle distance specialist with good tactical speed and a winning spirit, has been performing consistently well in listed stakes races this year. Fresh from earning a career top speed figure when runner-up over soft ground at Ellis Park, the daughter of Declaration of War switches to G. Saez and is worth consideration on a few backup tickets in rolling exotic play.


RACE 3: Post: 12:10 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Liza Star; 6-Bronx Beauty

Forecast: Liza Star is a win machine (11 for 33 overall) and after finishing third in good company in her last pair may be ready to get back to the winner’s circle. The veteran mare is solid in the speed figure department, thoroughly genuine and consistent, and picks up F. Geroux, who should have the daughter of Cool Coal Man in an ideal pace-prompting position. Also worth some consideration in rolling exotic play is Bronx Beauty, an authoritative sprint stakes winner at Monmouth Park last month and herself successful in 10 of 22 career races. She’ll need to step it up in the speed figure department but with some help up front could make some noise from off the pace in the final furlong.


RACE 4: Post: 12:46 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Caravel; 5-Evil Lyn

Forecast: Here’s a deep and difficult event for 3-year-old fillies, the listed Skipat Stakes. Caravel is unbeaten in three starts when facing considerably softer rivals at Penn National and Presque Isle Downs but she’s a fit on speed figures, potentially the controlling speed (though she certainly doesn’t need the lead to win) and has a pedigree that suggests she’ll have no difficulty handling this two-turn mile trip. Drawn comfortably inside while picking up P. Lopez, the E. Merryman-trained daughter of Mizzen Mast is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at or near that price. Evil Lyn has strong recent numbers, stretches out again to her preferred trip, and shows a bullet recent workout on the Churchill Downs training center (4f, :47b, fastest of 44). Though most comfortable on the lead, the daughter of Wicked Strong can settle in the second flight and produce a winning kick, so H. Karamanos can assess the pace flow and play it by ear.


RACE 5: Post: 1:22 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Mundaye Call

Forecast: Mundaye Call was below her best form when fading to fourth in the Eight Belles S.-G2 at Churchill Downs last month but she’s off the rail today, tackling easier, and projects to be a short price to regain her winning form in today’s renewal of the Miss Preakness S.-G3. She’s very likely the controlling speed, and a repeat her career-top performance at Ellis Park two races back when winning the Autobahn Oaks is more than good enough to beat this field. At 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she may be too short to play in the win pool but we can use her as a logical rolling exotic single.


RACE 6: Post: 2:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Somelikeitbrown; 3-Hembree; 7-Factor This

Forecast: Somelikeitbrown failed to secure his coveted front-running trip when troubled and unplaced in the Turf Classic-G1 on Derby Day last month at Churchill Downs, so we’ll draw a line through the race and key off his sharp score in the Bernard Baruch H.-G2 at Saratoga in late July. The son of Big Brown shows a pair of strong recent triple-digit Beyer speed figures, lands a comfortable inside post, switches to P. Lopez, and should be on or near the lead throughout. At 5-1 on the morning, he’s worth strong consideration in the win pool and in your rolling exotics. Factor One is even money on the morning and certainly the one to beat, though in a competitive affair he may be an underlay at that number. Probably a front-running type but drawn outside the other speed, the B. Cox-trained horse certainly knows how to seal the deal (he’s won 11 of 33, so if he can negotiate a decent trip he’ll certainly be hard to contain. Hembree, first or second in 16 of 37 starts, may be the most dangerous of the deep closers, and if the pace comes up contested and/or faster than par this veteran son of Proud Citizen could be a major player from the quarter pole home.


RACE 7: Post: 2:42 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Admiral Lynch; 5-Landeskog

Forecast: Landeskog won his comeback at Ellis Park in August in excellent style while mostly on cruise control throughout and with a forward move today the Munnings gelding could be hard to beat in the year’s renewal of the De Francis Memorial Dash S.-G2. The lightly-raced 4-year-old shows a steady, healthy recent series of drills for B. Cox and his best effort, which to this point was his highly-rated runner-up effort last year in the Gallant Bob S.-G2 at Parx, would most likely be good enough to win. Admiral Lynch earned a career top speed figure in a highly impressive allowance win at Saratoga in late July and has trained sharply in the interim. This is a tougher spot and the Super Saver colt doesn’t have a history of producing back-to-back wins but with a sharp break from the rail he’ll have every chance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Landeskog.


RACE 8: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Proud Mission; 3-Wootton Asset

Forecast: Trainer G. Motion is represented by two legitimate contenders in this year's edition of the Laurel Futurity. European import Wooton Asset makes his first start off the plane following a fifth place finish in a listed stakes at Deauville. A two-time winner in the provinces in the spring, the French-bred colt arrives plenty fit and should be quite competitive against this group. Pivotal Mission is a maiden with ability, having just finished second in the Juvenile S. at Kentucky Downs last month. He’ll add blinkers today, projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from his rail post and is a fit on figures. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


RACE 9: Post: 4:02 ET Grade: B
Use: 9-Monday Morning QB; 10-Don Juan Kitten

Forecast: In his first start since February, Monday Morning QB finished an excellent second to unbeaten Happy Server in the nine furlong Federico Tesio S. while nine lengths clear of the rest in a sharp effort that produced a career top speed figure. He’s bred to improve a ton on grass (Imagining), shortens to a mile, and has a bullet recent workout at Parx (4f, :47.3h, fastest of 20) to indicate he’s ready to step forward again in a big way. The R. Reid, Jr.-trained colt offers a good gamble at 8-1 on the morning line. Don Juan Kitten is a proven stakes performer and appears ready for top effort. He was nailed close home over a soft course that he may not have cared for in the Saranac S.-G3 at Saratoga in late August but his winning form before that charts very well with this group.


RACE 10: Post: 4:41 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Bonny South

Forecast: Bonny South is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite in this year’s Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 and may even go shorter as the obvious top pick and logical rolling exotic single following her outstanding runner-up effort behind Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama S,-G1 at Saratoga. She earned a career top speed figure in that race, one that towers over today’s competition, and with seven weeks off to recover from a hard, taxing effort and a good recent series of workouts the daughter of Munnings seems set to regain her winning form in this prestigious nine-furlong main track event for sophomore fillies.


RACE 11: Post: 5:36 ET Grade: X
Use: 3-Art Collector; 9-Authentic

Forecast: Authentic won the Kentucky Derby-G1 virtually gate-to-wire and similar front-running tactics are sure to be employed again in a race that could have slightly more pace pressure than the race in Louisville. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Into Mischief has the option of stalking and pouncing if he can’t quite get over but we suspect that with a decent break he’ll be anywhere he wants to be entering the clubhouse. From there, it’s just a matter of the B. Baffert-trained colt reproducing his best form, and with five wins and a second in six career starts he’s proven to be genuine, consistent, dependable, and fast on figures. Art Collector has crossed the wire first in each of his last five starts but was forced to miss the Derby due to a bruised hoof. Since then, the son of Bernardini has trained in spectacular fashion – better than ever it could be argued – and should draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Quite frankly, we’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two, and while we’re prefer Authentic on top both should be include in the rolling exotics.


RACE 12: Post: 6:23 ET Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The final race on the program is carded for Arabian horses. We will pass the race.

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