Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays | Saturday, June 22, 2024

CHURCHILL DOWNS – SECOND RACE – POST: 1:14PM ET
BEST PLAY: 1-NEVEERWALKALONE (BRZ) (10-1)

Forecast: The multiple Group-1 winning South American invader Neverwalkalone (Brz) makes her U.S. debut in this third level allowance event over a mile on grass in what appears to be an ideal spot to verify the strength of her Southern Hemisphere credentials. The Brazilian-bred filly, foaled in August of 2020 and therefore not actually four yet, should have no issue facing older foes under the assumption that her Argentine form can be taken at face value. A versatile and talented granddaughter of Sunday Silence, she has won quality races on both dirt and turf while showcasing a devasting late kick, and as a first time Lasix user from a favorable rail post, the Paulo Lobo-trained import looks good to go in her first outing since last September. A series of sharp workouts (three of her last four drills have been “bullets”) should have her fit and ready, so at or near her morning line of 10-1 she offers extreme value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

THISTLEDOWN – THIRTEENTH RACE – POST: 6:30PM ET
BEST PLAY: 9-BATTEN DOWN (6-1)

Forecast: His connections toyed with the idea of moving Batten Down all the way up to the Belmont Stakes-G1 following a dominating, mile and one quarter maiden win at Churchill Downs in late April but ultimately decided on to take one step at a time, and this year’s edition of the $500,000 Ohio Derby-G3 indeed fits the timeline perfectly. The full brother to Wood Memorial S.-G2 winner and twice Classic-placed Tacitus produced a career top 93 Beyer Speed Figure in his nearly nine length romp, and with another forward move today he should take this class jump in stride. The son of Tapit has shown he can win on the lead or from a pressing position, so depending upon the race flow regular rider J. Alvarado can pick a spot and choose his strategy. What he may lack in experience he certainly should make up for in talent, so at a juicy 8-1 on the morning line the Bill Mott-trained colt presents a superior wagering opportunity.

CANTERBURY PARK – EIGHTH RACE – POST 8:40PM CT
BEST PLAY: 6-BAXLEY (3-1)

Forecast: An impressive series of recent workouts provides strong indication that the quick sprinter Baxley has retained all of his juvenile speed for high percentage connections and therefore is the one to beat in this entry level allowance abbreviated dash. A facile first out maiden winner last summer at Hawthorne by more than five lengths, the son of KIimt then performed better than looked (a troubled fifth) facing a much stronger field in Kentucky in his next outing, so in his first start since October the Larry Rivelli-trained sophomore should simply outclass today’s field. In that Keeneland allowance race, the expensive ($235,000) OBS April sale graduate missed the break, raced in a box just off the very quick pace and then stayed on as best he could behind stakes quality performers Normandy Hero and Valentine Candy in a much better than looked outing. Based on his numbers from last year, he’s simply faster than this group, so if you can get close to his morning line of 3-1, you should probably take it.