Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The first race, carded for hurdlers, has been cancelled.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Pillbox
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: In her first outing since March, Pillbox shows up well below her claim price, a class dive that always must be viewed with caution, but this barn runs its claiming stock where it belongs, and this lightly raced filly appears to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. A series of sharp works at Gulfstream Park prior to her arrival at the Spa may be viewed as an enticement for a claim, but if healthy she shouldn’t have much trouble with this group. At 6/5 on the morning line, though, there’s very little value to be found.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Miss d’Oro Cherie
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-Tricky Temper; 4-Dorth’s Dol Dancer; 6-Stormy Disco.
Forecast: This race was originally carded for turf but has been transferred to the main track (check for late changes). Main track only entrant Miss d’Or Cherie smoked a quarter of a mile in 20 3/5 at the OBS April sale, the fastest for the distance at the entire sale. She’s done some very good work preparing for this race at Belmont Park and is the choice if she starts. However, she was entered back for Thursday, so we’ll see where she winds up. Tricky Temper, a daughter of Into Mischief, must be considered a major contender in this moderate New York-bred maiden sprint based on a recent bullet half mile gate drill (:47 3/5) that was the fastest of 41 for the distance. She was purchased for $230,000 at the same sale as our top pick (who brought $300,000) after previewing 10 1/5 seconds, an okay move but certainly not scintillating. Also at the same sale, Dorth’s Sol Dancer breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds and certainly looked the equal to ‘Temper. The barn does well with first timers and the work tab at Finger Lakes gives a hint of some ability. Stormy Disco is bred to win early (Disco Partner) and has some drills at Monmouth Park that appear sneaky. At 8-1 on the morning line, you have to toss her in somewhere.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This race was carded for turf but has been transferred to the main track. We will pass the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Crazy Camie; 5-Shimmering Allure; 3-Zadorsky
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Echo Lake.
Forecast: This maiden special weight restricted to $50,000 auction purchases (or those that were bought back for that price or less) has several possibilities in a field loaded with lightly raced runners or first time starters. Crazy Camie, a fair-to-moderate third in her debut against similar foes here last month, adds blinkers today and seems likely to produce a forward move. Her number wasn’t bad, so we’ll give her a very slight edge on top over the Ellis Park shipper Shimmering Allure, who was nosed out in a straight maiden sprint last time out while more than three lengths clear of the others in a big improvement over her debut performance. Her numbers are nothing special but at least they’re moving in the right direction. Zadorsky has been a beaten choice in both of her starts at the Pea Patch, and while her figures are competitive she may not be one to trust. Still, we’ll include her on our ticket.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Mia Marcela; 16-Solve the Puzzle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Jody’s Pride.
Forecast: This race was originally carded for turf but has been transferred to the main track. Mia Marcela blazed a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS April sale and then brought $375,000 through the ring. The daughter of Twirling Candy also has been very impressive in her local drills and appears to be a filly blessed with intense speed. We’re expecting to see her outrun this field. Solve the Puzzle, entered for main track only, looked like a runner in a team gate drill last month and is a “must use.” Jody’s Pride is another that has displayed a bit of quality in her local workouts and is certain to receive support on the tote. However, the daughter of American Pharoah isn’t certain to start, as most of her sire’s offspring (especially the fillies) seem to perform better on grass.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Asymmetric; 10-Clubhouse; 9-Tommy Gun
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Asymmetric is being culled from the stable in just his fifth career start, plummeting from a first level allowance race (was fourth as the favorite) all the way down to the (nw-2) $25,000 claiming level in his first outing since March. With the yearling sales approaching, you’ll see a lot of this from the big stables. He’s clearly faster than these based on speed figures, but the red flags are hard to ignore. Clubhouse is being tossed away as well. Stakes-placed three races back but unplaced in the Gotham S.-G3 and then far back in a first level allowance turf sprint, the son of Speightstown lands the cozy outside post and should regain some of his confidence against this group. Tommy Gun may be the quickest in the field and could get brave if he can shake loose early.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Raging Sea; 5-Pharoah’s Heart
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Raging Sea makes her first start in this allowance optional claimer since finishing a promising third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Keeneland last November for trainer Chad Brown, who has superb stats with layoff runners. She was also crossed the wire third (beaten a neck) in the Alcibiades S.-G2 during her three-race 2-year-old campaign. However, we’re not sure what to make of the fact that she hasn’t recorded an official local drill since July 23. Pharoah’s Heart is entered for the $50,000 tag because she’s already won this condition. She was below form in a turf router at Belmont Park in June but recorded speed figures in three of her previous four dirt track efforts that stamps her as a major player at this level. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Raging Sea.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sunset Louise; 5-Betsy Blue
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Timeless Journey.
Forecast: Sunset Louise seeks her fourth straight score and seems likely to gain her preferred role as the controlling speed in this year’s edition of the Johnstone Mile Handicap for New York-bred fillies and mares. She is a non-stakes winner facing several who have won or placed in black type events, but her numbers make her a fit and she’s improving with each outing and a perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga main track. She actually doesn’t need the lead to win but the pace projection tells us she can have it if she wants it. Betsy Blue is fast on figures and should settle into an ideal second flight position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. She’s a tough old pro that has finished first or second in 18 of 23 career starts and though primarily a sprinter has won at this one mile trip in the past.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The finale was carded for grass, but hs been moved to the main track. We will pass the race.
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