NOTE: Pick 6 carryover of $179,736 begins Race 4
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Saratoga Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Denver’s Alley
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Bernietakescharge.
Forecast: The known element in this state-bred juvenile filly maiden turf route is thoroughly unimpressive, so let’s try a fresh face with credentials to be better than her 10-1 morning line. Denver’s Alley has done some decent work leading up to this race and appears to be a willing type, at the very least. Her final times haven’t been flashy, but she’s done everything in hand while finishing with something left, so in a below par race for the level the daughter of Algorithms should be at least competitive and perhaps good enough to pull off a surprise.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Thestral
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Thestral seems to be the best of a bad lot and rates top billing by default in this maiden claiming main track affair for fillies and mares. The Midwest invader has been facing straight maiden foes of late and actually finished third in such a race last winter at Turfway Park that earned a speed figure good enough to beat this group. We’re expecting her to inherit a soft pace stalking trip outside and then have her chance from there, but at 9/5 on the morning line she really won’t offer much wagering value at a price shorter than that.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Timed Out; 6-Vitaemi
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Timed Out is a Finger Lakes shipper with numbers that can win at this level, so let’s go with veteran mare who has finished first or second in 11 of 18 career starts. She’s a fairly versatile type that can win on the front end if the situation presents itself or from a second flight, stalking position. With Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call, she should be a live item on the tote. Vitaemi is another old timer (12 wins from 61 starts) that can win a race like this based on her present form. The David Jacobson-trained mare stretches out from a sprint and seems likely to be the controlling speed. If not pressured early, she could roll all the way to the wire.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:53 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Three Girls; Maddie’s Grace; 5-World Traveler
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Explosive Exchange.
Forecast: Three Girls looked sharp breaking her maiden in a $40,000 event last month over this course and distance and could score right back with a similar effort in this starter’s allowance event for fillies and mares. It was her first start since last December, so a forward move is possible for her new connections. Based on her last race, she appears to prefer stalking tactics, but she does have enough early zip to make the lead in a field lacking in front running types. Maddie’s Grace has a look off her best race but had no visible excuse when failing as the odds-on favorite in a similar local dash last month. Perhaps she didn’t care for the give in the ground but may do better on a firm surface. World Traveler, in from Monmouth Park, may be the most dangerous of the late runners and has speed figures that put herl in the picture.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): Shinsun; 10-Unleash the Power; 7-Jarreau
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Front Man.
Forecast: This starter’s allowance nine furlong turf event is borderline inscrutable. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Shinsun is lightly raced with room to improve that most of the others don’t have. Second in a similar affair at Belmont Park in his last start in early July, the Barclay Tagg-trained gelding lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late, so with just a little bit of help up front he could produce a successful late bid. Unleash the Power draws the disadvantageous outside draw but has hit the board in his last three starts and really won’t have to improve much to win. However, you should be aware that he doesn’t always give it to you when the pressure is turned on close home. Jarreau hasn’t won since who knows when, but he is exiting a series of tougher races on the Kentucky circuit and lands Iran Ortiz, Jr. With numbers that fit, the Michael Maker-trained gelding could perk up against this group.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Cupid’s Heart; 8-Portage; 4-Cuz Ur Pretty
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Cupid’s Heart was four lengths clear of the rest in a fast, highly rated race at this level last month and if he doesn’t regress off what was a hard, taxing effort the Bruce Levine-trained filly should beat this field. That race was at seven furlongs, this one’s at six, but the daughter of Cupid might actually prefer this distance, having won two of three previous outings at this trip. Portage is drawn just outside of our top pick and may be the one to fear most. She earned a big number in her recent maiden score here last month, and with just four career starts on her resume the daughter of Tonalist has plenty of room for further advancement. Based on her Finger Lakes form, Cuz Ur Pretty may be the quickest of the lot and could take some catching if she can get away with a softish opening quarter. She’s clearly facing tougher foes on this circuit but as a first time Lasix user and with speed figure that fit, the daughter of Sharp Azteca is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:36 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-South Street
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: South Street drops well below his claim level – as many in the Linda Rice claiming corps often do – so there’s always a question of condition, but if this gelding shows up with this best stuff he’ll handle this $25,000 claiming group. An okay third in a much tougher starter allowance ($50,000) over a mile on the local main track six days ago, the son of Quality Road returns on short rest and stretches out to nine furlongs, but at even money on the morning line he won’t be offering any wagering value. Basically, he’s a rolling exotic single by default.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Silver Skillet; 7-Orange Freeze
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Silver Skillet moves into state-bred stakes company after a clever win over the local lawn last month when facing first level allowance fillies and mares. The Christophe Clement-trained daughter of Liam’s Map can be tough as the controlling speed or in a stalk and pounce position, and with speed figures that continue to rise with each start this lightly raced sophomore should be capable of handling the class hike in stride. Joel Rosario stays aboard and knows her well. Orange Freeze is another facing tougher after graduating for maiden $40,000 two races back (and claimed by her present connections) and then winning a New York Stallion Stakes here last month. She’s not quite as fast on figures as our top pick but with another forward move she’ll be a legitimate threat to win her third straight. She’s a deep closer and will be especially dangerous if the pace comes up faster than par.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Red Butterfly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Mo Damorninggrouch.
Forecast: Red Butterfly threw a fit in the gate and then ran below her true form when fourth in a similar maiden ($40,000) claiming sprint over this course and distance last month but a repeat of her race before last – a solid runner-up at Belmont Park – probably will be good enough to earn her diploma. None of these are dependable, and that includes our top pick, so if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
*
.svg){kind=logo}
