Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Saratoga | Wednesday, April 30, 2023

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Saratoga Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference):  Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.  

Forecast: Today’s first race is for hurdlers.  We will pass the race.  


RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Justice Julia/1a-Emery; 4-Before You Go Go
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.  

Forecast: The Stonestreet Farm entry looks quite formidable in this maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies and we’d be surprised if both don’t start, as they are from different barns.  Emery, out of a sprinting multiple stakes winning earner of slightly less than a half million dollars, has done some really good work at Churchill Downs for Brad Cox and should arrive fit and ready. The daughter of More Than Ready closed out her Kentucky tab last week with a bullet gate drill of 1:00.2, fastest of 25 for the distance.  Justice Julia, a half-siter to champion Malathaat, has trained reasonably well – not flashy – for her debut, though we expect her to develop down the road as the distances increase.  The best of the known element is Before You Go Go, a decent third in her debut over this track and distance earlier this monthly in a race that produced an okay speed figure.  She certainly has a right to improve with that bit of experience behind her.  


RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Entrepreneurship; 4-Temping Lady; 6-Leslie’s Loot
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.  

Forecast: Entrepreneurship has trained like a quick filly, both during the spring when doing her early preparation at Gulfstream Park and then most recently in a series of breezes at Saratoga.  A bit high headed but with plenty of ability, the daughter of Dialed In brought $50,000 at auction which makes her eligible to this restricted maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies.  How she’ll handle turf is anybody’s guess.  Tempting Lady closed a gap at 22-1 in her debut after a slow start and has a right to be sharper and more dangerous today.  Leslie’s Loot displayed sharp speed over this course and distance two races back when opening up four lengths in mid-stretch before running out of steam close home and winding up third.  She has yet to display stick to her zip in three outings but may be able to stick around for at least a piece of it.  


RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Cupid’s Heart; 3-Little Prankster; 4-Little Prankster
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Cupid’s Heart hits hard at this level and the Bruce Levine-trained filly appears ready to regain her winning form after finishing in the frame in her last three starts in fast, highly rated races. She retains Flavian Prat and can handle this task with a repeat of her last race.  Little Prankster crushed maidens by almost eight lengths in her fourth career outing in an off-the-turf affair last month while earning by far a career top number.  A bullet five furlong breeze (1:00 2/5) since that race tells us another forward move is likely.  Liquidity Provider graduated by almost seven lengths in her third career start last October at the Big A but then disappeared.  If she returns as well as she left for trainer Chad Brown, she certainly has a right to be competitive.  


RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Yacowlef; 8-I’m Very Busy; 4-Let’s Go Big Blue
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Ramblin’ Wreck.  

Forecast: Yacowlef is an intriguing English invader that arrived in early July and has been training steadily for her U.S. debut for Jack Sisterson.  An accomplished handicapper in good company overseas, the sophomore colt earned improving Timeform Ratings last spring that makes him a genuine fit at this level on this circuit.  The barn does well with imports and with Johnny V. taking the call this sneaky import has the look of a live item at 10-1 on the morning line.  I’m Very Busy, fourth in his recent comeback here last month, has a right to step forward for the Chad Brown/Flavian Prat team as a first time Lasix user and with the addition of blinkers.  His speed figures are solid, and it wouldn’t be surprising if his numbers continue to rise with experience and maturity.  Let’s Go Big Blue lost a winning purse via disqualification in a state bred stakes race a couple of weeks ago.  He’s in open company today but has numbers that make him dangerous.  


RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): No More Talk; 6-Ghost Future; 3-Digital Future
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Souper Catch.

Forecast: No More Talk finished a distant third in a much stronger $20,000 sprint over this track and distance earlier this month, so this drop in class is warranted and could allow the durable veteran of 87 career starts to regain his winning form.  First or second in 31 of his lifetime races, the nine year old gelding retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. and should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Ghost Giant plummets to his lowest level ever after finishing off the board in his last nine races, all against much tougher allowance foes.  The David Donk-trained should greatly appreciate this softer assignment and could come to life with the switch to Flavian Prat at 8-1 on the morning line.  Digital Future is yet another dropping sharply in class after being a voided claim for $25,000 here last month.  If healthy, he certainly can act with these.  

RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 12-Why Waste Words; 10-She’s Mo Bubbly; 3-Tawaret
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-King’s Secret; 4-Libretto; 5-Absolute Control.

Forecast: Why Waste Words certainly outran her 45-1 odds when closing stoutly before missing by a nose in a similar two-turn maiden grass affair for juveniles last month.  The daughter of Bernardini must overcome the extreme outside draw but if she can drop over, get cover, and then be produced late she could be good enough to tag the leaders close home.  She’s Mo Bubbly has had five chances already but is getting closer, most recent finishing second (beaten a neck) over an off-the-turf sloppy track affair in late July.  She ran very well to be second on turf two runs back and a repeat of that race today could easily be good enough.  Tawaret is a one-paced grinder and may lack the necessary turn of foot be counted on, but her form suggests she can at least hit the board.  


RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Olga Isabel; 2-Movie Moxy; 8-Tizzt in the Sky
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.  

Forecast: Olga Isabel arrives from Kentucky where she demolished a first level allowance field by more than seven lengths in her first start since joining the Brad Cox barn at Ellis Park in a race that produced a strong, career-top speed figure.  The lightly raced daughter of Tiznow steps up a notch and moves to a tougher circuit but has room for further improvement and seems better than her morning line of 5-1 would give her credit for.  Movie Moxy has won two of her last three starts, and after a freshening of 10 weeks returns as a major contender is this allowance optional claiming main track miler.  She hasn’t run all that well over the local main track in the past, but those races were pre-Linda Rice.  Tizzy in the Sky moves to the Todd Pletcher barn for her first start since last November.  She’s strong in the speed figure department and is a devout front runner that certainly will employ gate to wire tactics.  


RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Brocknardini
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: Seven of the 10 projected starters in this year’s edition of the P. G. Johnson Stakes for juvenile fillies were winners of their most recent start, so this is a strong and contentious race with several possibilities.  Of those seven, Brocknardini was most visually impressive.  In her debut when facing state-bred foes earlier this month, she never got close to the rail while settling in mid-pack before uncorking an exceptional turn of foot to fly past her rival in the upper stretch and drawing clear with power in the final furlong. The number was quite good, so we’re expecting a repeat performance from the George Weave-trained filly.  Listed at 9/2 on the morning line and with Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding her back, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.  


RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference):  12-Myles; 10-Barry the Builder; 11-Prix de West
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.

Forecast: The finale is a borderline inscrutable maiden claiming turf router for older horses.  Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows.  Myles is marooned in the 12-hole but has improved in each of his three starts and may be good enough to overcome the poor draw with another forward move. The son of Creative Cause exits a productive race and hopefully will be quick enough to get over and secure a decent early position before the field hits the clubhouse turn.  Barry the Builder is an eight race maiden and perhaps not one to count on but he’s a fit on numbers and may improve in his first start since joining the Michael Maker barn.  Prix de West is another that drew a rough post but he’s a first time Lasix user making just his third career start and may have room for improvement that most of the others don’t.  


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