Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Saratoga Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Marco T.; 9-Gioia Mia
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Pretty Up.
Forecast: Marco T. stayed on willingly to be third in her debut in May at Belmont Park, was entered back the following month but scratched, and returns for trainer Christophe Clement in this state-bred turf dash for juvenile fillies. Her recent work tab is a tad light, but we’ll assume she’s fit and ready and good enough to win based on her promising initial impression. Gioia Mia is a first timer who, like our top pick, is a daughter of Kantharos and therefore bred to enjoy sprinting on grass. The works look decent enough to include her on our ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Timely Conquest; 1-Amanda’s Folly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Timely Conquest is undefeated in two very impressive sprint outings, stretches out to a distance she should be able to handle, and has a decided edge in speed figures based on her seven length romp in a first level allowance race over the local main track last month. This step up in class to the Fleet Indian Stakes should be well within her capabilities, so her role as the 7/5 morning line favorite appears justified. Amanda’s Folly is developing into a genuine and consistent performer for trainer Linda Rice while showing rising speed figures in each of her last four races. The daughter of Mendelssohn can be effective as the controlling speed or from a stalking position, so Irad Ortiz, Jr. can assess the pace flow and pick his strategy before the field hits the clubhouse turn. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with preference on top to Timely Conquest.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-City Man; 2-Dakota Gold; 6-Spirit of St Louis
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This is a difficult affair matching tough and genuine state-bred older horses that are quite familiar with each another. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. City Man is a Christophe Clement-trained veteran fresh from a game win in the Kingston Stakes at Belmont Park in late May and should fire a similar shot in this year’s renewal of the West Point Stakes. First or second in four of five starts over the local lawn, the son of Mucho Macho Man likes to settle early and blast home and under regular pilot Joel Rosario he’ll have every chance to produce another winning late kick. Dakota Gold is capable of winning on the lead or from off the pace. However, his regular pilot (Irad Ortiz, Jr.) jumps off to ride what looks like the rising star of the division, Spirit of St Louis, a winner of three of four starts against lesser foes but with speed figures that make him a strong fit despite the class hike.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-The Wine Steward
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Wine Steward is perfect in two starts and should remain that way in this year’s renewal of the Funny Cide Stakes for 2-year-olds. A debut winner by six lengths at Belmont Park in May and then convincing (by nearly three lengths) in victory in the Bashford Manor Stakes at Ellis Park last month, the son of Vino Rosso lands the cozy outside post in this six furlong dash and projects to enjoy a soft, second flight, stalking trip before accelerating when given his cue. At 2-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Whatlovelookslike
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Runaway Rumour.
Forecast: Whatlovelookslike looks quite capable of extending her winning streak to four in this year’s edition of the Yaddo Handicap for older fillies and mares. She’ll need to spot a few pounds to her seven rivals and isn’t guaranteed a great trip from her far outside post position, but the daughter of English Channel is a progressive sort with rising speed figures and should be capable of producing another forward move for the high percentage trainer/jockey team of Todd Pletcher and Flavian Prat. She’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite and at that price is worth a good play in the straight pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:56 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Rocket and Roll
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rocket and Roll was somewhat disappointing in three starts last winter at Oaklawn Park but had to be stopped on and turned out, so perhaps he had a legitimate (physical) excuse for failing to perform up to expectations. The Brad Cox-trained son of Bolt d’Oro returns with a series of solid works at Belmont Park and could easily be a better type this time around, especially against state-bred rivals after tackling some very tough open foes last winter. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’re expecting that he’ll offer excellent value as a win play and a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Stellamaris
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Concerti.
Forecast: She’s the only maiden in this six runner edition of the Seeking the Ante Stakes for juvenile fillies, but Stellamaris has the fastest fig in the field and from her outside draw should have every chance with clear sailing to wear down the leaders. The daughter of Catalina Cruiser is returning off short rest (two weeks) and is backing up from seven furlongs to six, but if she comes close to her first outing she should be able to handle this field. She’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, so rather than spread the race we’ll take a stand with the filly whose trainer has terrific stats with the second time starter angle.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:04 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-One Headlight; 1-Whistler’s Honor.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag with several possibilities. You should probably use has many as your budget allows but small ticket players may want to focus on the two listed above. One Headlight is better than his last shows, and with just our career starts on his resume he has plenty of room to improve. Irad Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard the Todd Pletcher-trained colt, who lacks tactical speed but can really turn it on late. Whistler’s Honor is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his rail draw under Flavian Prat, and with rising speed figures in each of his four starts the Jorge Abreu-trained son of Tonalist could easily be this good.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:40 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Weekend Rags; 2-U Should B Dancing
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Weekend Rags lands the good inside draw and rates a very slight edge on top in this first level allowance turf sprint for New York-bred fillies and mares. Freshened since early July, the daughter of Street Boss has numbers that can win and room for further improvement, so at 3-1 on the morning line she’s the preferred pick. U Should B Dancing likes to settle and produce a late kick and with some help up front and clear sailing through the lane she should make here presence felt close home. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play, but if you find the need to spread with a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:14 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Mariachi; 2-Maker’s Candy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Drake’s Passage.
Forecast: Mariachi may be a rising star in the New York-bred sophomore ranks after earning a career top speed figure in a recent first level allowance sprint win. The son of Maclean’s Music should be capable of repeating on the raise in this year’s edition of the Albany Stakes, even though the John Kimmel-trained colt will be stretching out from six furlongs to a mile and one-eighth for the first time and is no slam dunk based on pedigree to handle two turns. However, he is the projected controlling speed and given that type of trip may be able to wire the field,. Maker’s Candy missed at 1/5 in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes last time out while finishing 13 lengths clear of the others but has prior form that makes him strictly the one to beat. He certainly projects to be the most dangerous of the closing types.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:48 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 12-Starts Now; 11-Lady Laoban; 6-Autumn
Backups/savers: 10-Shelly.
Forecast: Starts Now is stuck on the far outside in this one mile inner turf affair for state bred maiden fillies and mares but if she can drop over and get some cover without being parked wide the daughter of Mucho Macho Man should be set to earn her diploma. Second in her last three starts and adding blinkers for the first time, she rates a very slight edge on top over Lady Laoban, a close third in the same race our top pick exits despite being fractious loading into the gate, and Autumn, fourth in that common race while closing a gap but too late in just her third career start and her first since May.
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