Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Ask Isaac; 3-Fortune Seller
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ask Isaac has done some very good work leading up to his racing debut and we suspect this $400,000 son of Uncle Mo is a cut above the others in this two turn grass affair for maiden juveniles. There appears nothing flashy among the final times of his breezes, but we’ve seen him on tape - View Workout Video - and he appears to be a strong colt with plenty of scope and talent. He’s worth a gamble at 4-1 on the morning line. Also worth tossing in the Parx shipper Fortune Seller, who probably wouldn’t be here unless his connections thought something of him. Certainly bred for grass, the son of Kitten’s Joy goes for a stable that has no reputation with debut runners, but he attracts Jose Ortiz and has some drills on his resume that look pretty decent.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Deputy Connect; 4-Paddington
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Deputy Connect seems solid in this nine furlong starter allowance ($50,000) event, and in what projects to be a slowly run race during the early stages he can draft into an ideal pace stalking/pressing position and have every chance from there. The Brad Cox-trained colt has steadily rising speed figures, is relatively fresh, and has the grinding style that should work well at this nine furlong trip. Paddington, a colt by Curlin, was tossed away for $50,000 in just his second career start but ran like he was worth the money and then some by registering a more than 19 length victory over a sloppy surface at Ellis Park last month. Claimed by Linda Rice, he’s protected today and projects as the possible controlling speed. If it wasn’t the wet track that moved him up, the WinStar Farm castoff could be capable of dominating from gate to wire.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Healdsburg
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Healdsburg looked quite good breezing a furlong in :10 flat at the 2021 OBS April Sale and then brought $365,000 at auction. Finally, at age four, she makes it to the races. The daughter of Candy Ride doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this abbreviated turf sprint for fillies and mares and should be highly competitive first crack out of the box Chad Brown (a strong 23% with first time starters). A recent main track team gate drill was visually impressive under a tight hold throughout - View Workout Video - and should have her tight enough to handle this assignment. With Flavian Prat taking the call and at 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Chileno
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Chileno has recent form that hardly inspires but he does own a considerable edge in the speed figure department in a weak field for the level and could wake up big time with this class drop to the restricted (nw-2) $25,000 level. Certainly a hard one to trust (1-for-17 in his career), the son of Gun Runner rates top billing pretty much default in a race in which contenders are difficult to find. There’s hardly any value to be found at or near his morning line of 2-1, so this might be a good race to avoid.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Undervalued Asset
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Cupid’s Heart.
Forecast: Undervalued Asset finished six lengths clear of the rest when second in a career top performance at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Oaks day and with a repeat of that effort today she should be able to handle this first level allowance field of sprinting fillies and mares. The Chad Brown-trained daughter of Speightstown has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong distance and speed figures that are good enough to win, so following a recent sharp local breeze to tick her over - View Workout Video - we’re expecting a winning performance while hoping to get close to her morning line of 2-1.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Roses for Debra; 2-Bubble Rock
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Wakanaka
Forecast: Poppy Flower nosed out Bubble Rock when the met in the Intercontinental Stakes-G3 at Belmont Park last month but this time there is a six pound shift in the weights in favor or ‘Rock in this year’s renewal of the Caress S.-G3 over five and one-half furlongs on grass. ‘Rock is clearly the quicker of the two, so this shortened trip (by a furlong) favors her considerably, as well. She one she actually has to worry the most about is the rapidly improving Roses for Debra, who is perfect in two starts since joining the Christophe Clement barn. She’s unproven at this level but is fast on figures and is equally effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position, so Irad Ortiz, Jr. can assess the race flow and choose whatever strategy he desires. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics, with ‘Debra getting a very slight edge on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Annointed; 3-General Partner
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Valentine Candy; 7-Dive Bomber
Forecast: This certainly looks like a hot maiden juvenile event with 12 first time starters, each with either good workouts, fancy pedigrees, or both. Annointed is one who checks both boxes. The son of Justify is a full brother to debut winner Aunt Shirley and whose second dam is a full sister to Giant’s Causeway. Perhaps more importantly, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has looked quite impressive in the morning and most recently proved clearly best over stablemate Protected - View Workout Video - who also is in the body of this race. The Chad Brown-trained General Partner seems to have plenty of raw talent as well. A colt by Speightstown from the dam of stakes winning Naughty Joker, he hasn’t really been asked to show his best in the morning - View Workout Video - but comes from a stable that does extremely well (23%) with newcomers.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-I’m Very Busy/1a-Grand Glomar Step; 2-Antares
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Fearless Soldier
Forecast: I’m Very Busy and Grand Giomar Step form a powerful entry for trainer Chad Brown in this first level allowance turf router restricted to 3-year-olds. The former won his debut over this course and distance last year and was so impressive in doing so that he left at odds-on in the Pilgrim Stakes-G2, though he could only manage to finish second on soft ground he may not have cared for. Unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 (but beaten less than four lengths) to close out the season, the son of Cloud Computing launches his comeback with a local work tab that should have him plenty fit. ‘Step is a French invader with a couple of all-weather victories overseas on his resume that look decent enough. He’s a first-time Lasix and first time gelding play with Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting the mount, so he and his entry mate almost certainly will leave at a short price, assuming both actually start. Antares earned a giant figure graduating over the all-weather strip when facing inferior opposition at Presque Isle Downs and today stretches out to a surface he should like equally as well. There is no question that front-running tactics will be employed, and despite the class hike it would not be surprising to see this Billy Morey-trained son of American Pharoah take this field a very long way.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:42 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gambling Girl; 2-Wet Paint
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Gambling Girl ran lights out when flying home but narrowly missing in the Kentucky Oaks-G1 behind division leader Pretty Mischievous and makes her first start since in this year’s edition of the C.C.A. Oaks-G1. She’s been kept in steady training in the interim at Churchill Down and arrives in New York primed and ready. The Todd Pletcher-trained filly can adapt to any type of pace flow and projects to settle in the second flight and the kick home when called upon. Wet Paint was victimized by a lack of pace and wound up a non-threatening (and somewhat disappointing) second behind loose-on-the-lead Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl S. at Ellis Park last time out. She is reunited with “win rider” Flavian Prat, so we’ll give her one more chance to reproduce her outstanding winter form.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Accretive; 6-Daufuskie Island
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: When last seen 11 months ago, Accretive finished a disappointing fifth in the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 behind Jack Christopher after having just missed in a photo to Gunite in the Amsterdam S.-G2 and before that graduating at first asking in a highly rated maiden sprint at Belmont Park. Let’s hope he returns with that kind of form in this first level allowance sprint for trainer Chad Brown. The son of Practical Joke has never looked better in the morning - View Workout Video - but he’s tackling several salty older foes, so he’d better bring his “A” game. Daufuskie Island has won his last three starts by a combined 25 lengths and most recently earned a triple digit Beyer speed figure when easily disposing of state-bred second level allowance field. We’ll see what he’s made of today.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Catchyasoon/1a-Flint Ridge; 6-Seven Nation Army; 6-Prince James.
Backups/savers: 8-Digital Future
Forecast: We suggest you tread lightly in this $32,000 claiming sprint that contains runners moving in all different directions on the class ladder. Catchyasoon faded badly at 6/5 and was a voided claim for $40,000 last month at Belmont Park. Today, the Linda Rice-trained gelding surfaces for $25,000, so it’s anybody’s guess as to what kind of shape this veteran gelding currently is in. A repeat of his runaway win for $32,000 two races back buries this field, that we do know. Same can be said for entry mate Flint Ridge, claimed for $50,000 in May and returning today for half that amount. His form from last winter was superior to this group, but we’re not sure which version we’ll be seeing today. Seven Nation Army is dropping off a $25,000 claim by Robertino Diodoro in his first start since arriving from Ellis Park. First or second in 17 of 41 career starts, the son of First Samurai is another that is good enough but with a condition question. Prince James blew away a $20,000 field at Belmont Park in late June with a solid figure and although moving up a notch and tackling much tougher probably is a bit better than his morning line of 15-1.
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