Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Tall Paul
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Quiet Wisdom
Forecast: Tall Paul finished an excellent second in a quick maiden special weight juvenile dash at Del Mar on opening weekend and then was shipped to Saratoga to take advantage of his New York-bred status. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Frosted had a nice breeze over the Saratoga main track earlier this week and with any kind of forward move should take care of business at a short price.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:42 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Ocean Mermaid
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ocean Mermaid left as the 4/5 favorite in her debut in the Royal Palm Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Gulfstream Park in May and ran a winning race but had to settle for second (while almost six lengths clear of the rest) after chasing home Crimson Advocate, who certainly franked the form by winning at Royal Ascot in her next outing. ‘Mermaid shows a light series of only three breezes since that race but we’re going to assume that she’s fit and ready for trainer Wesley Ward, whose record with layoff runners (28%, strong ROI) is off the charts. Despite facing colts in this abbreviated turf dash, the English-bred daughter of Kingman is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, but we’d have to think she’ll go lower.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:17 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sa Fordada; 3-Freudian; 1-Jolly Miss Jill
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Mursal.
Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a starter allowance ($50,000) main track miler for fillies and mares in which the main contention is drawn inside. Sa Fordada has won or hit the board in each of her last six starts and is well placed to fire another good shot. She has a good stalking style for this trip and numbers that are good enough to win. Freudian returns from Monmouth Park, where she wound up second in optional claimer while earning a career top speed figure. She’s always preferred to run second or third (nine times) rather than win (three times), but her best race puts her right there. Jolly Miss Jill crushed a softer restricted (nw-2) $25,000 field over this track and distance last month and was claimed by a low profile but competent outfit. From her inside draw she’ll likely employ gate to wire tactics and if not pressured could take this field a long way.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:48 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): One Giant Leap; 5-Kupp
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: One Giant Leap finished a distant second in his debut but has won his last two starts in good style, most recently at Keeneland when drawing away with authority to register a four length score in a restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. However, he was a voided claim and was forced to miss time, returning today following a three and one-half month layoff in a $32,000 sprint, not a healthy pattern, for sure. He’s also a first time gelding, so there’s lots to consider. However, on pure numbers, the Wesley Ward-trained son of Will Take Charge is simply faster than these, so if he fires his best shot he’ll be hard handle. Kupp is worth tossing in just in case ‘Leap regresses. The Mor Spirit gelding is working on his own two race winning streak, though his numbers are short of what they’ll need to be to win. He’s proven to be a versatile sprinter who can be effective on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Reynolds Channel; 5-Deterministic
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Informed Patriot.
Forecast: Reynolds Channel is bred more for distance than he is for a sprint, but this highly promising juvenile colt has done everything in the morning like a quality prospect. The Bill Mott-trained son of West Coast brought $300,000 as a yearling, which speaks to his physical attributes, and a strong and consistent work tab should have him plenty fit and ready. Deterministic is another talented newcomer with credentials to win early. The son of Liam’s Map is light in the first dam but still brought $625,000 at auction at Keeneland and has trained in splendid style, showing excellent speed and athleticism in the local drills that were able to view on video.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Richies Princess; 1a-Foxy Cara; 10-Souffle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Chicago invader Richies Princess appears to have found a proper spot to win at first asking in this state-bred dash for fillies and mares. The Larry Rivelli-trained daughter of Laoban was given a solid foundation of drills at her home base at Hawthorne and then had a sharp half mile blowout (:47 flat, bullet work, fastest of 50) to have her right edge on for this six furlong dash. A half-sister to the multiple stakes winning Jean Elizabeth (16 wins from 21 starts), ‘Princess appears to be made of the right stuff and attracts top rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Foxy Cara, in the frame in four of five career starts, shows competitive speed figures but at this stage can’t really beat a good maiden. She’s a one-paced grinding type but can be dangerous if our top pick runs below expectations. Souffle
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RACE 7: Post: 4:30 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Love Reigns; Love Appeals.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Redefined.
Forecast: Love Reigns was a stakes winner over this course and distance as a 2-year-old and won her only start this year when capturing the Limestone Stakes at Keeneland in April with a career top number. She clearly can fire fresh, so this four month gap in between races is of no concern. She wins this year’s edition of the Galway Stakes for 3-year-old fillies with anything close to her best race, and while she’s listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t go lower. Love Appeals missed as the favorite (beaten a neck) as the favorite in a listed turf sprint stakes at Monmouth Park last month. She’s not a quick type but can turn it on late and may be the one that our top pick has to worry about the most.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:06 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Rhyme Schemes
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rhyme Schemes arrives from Ellis Park after blowing out a maiden field by more than nine lengths in mid-June speed and authority and looking very much like a future star. He’s 4/5 on the morning line for this year’s edition of the Saratoga Special-G2 and it will take something unforeseen to beat this son of Ghostzapper if he shows up with the same type of explosion that he exhibited at the Pea Patch.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Casa Creed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Annapolis.
Forecast: Casa Creed is the defending Fourstardave H.-G1 winner and appears to be every bit as good now as he was last year following his strong recent win in the local prep for this race, the Kelso S.-G3 over this course and distance last month. A true Saratoga specialist with three wins and two thirds in five career starts at the Spa, the veteran son of Jimmy Creed likes to settle early and blast home, and with two nice local breezes to tick him over we’re expecting the Bill Mott-trained horse to continue his winning ways.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Order of Magnitude; 2-Forrest City; 5-Mistical Curlin
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Memphis.
Forecast: Here’s a challenging starter’s allowance main track miler that offers several possibilities. Order of Magnitude is a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro and could be dangerous right back after wiring the field over this track and distance in a restricted $25,000 affair last month. He’s fast on numbers and can win on the front end or from a stalking position. We also like the fact that his new connections are protecting him today, so at 8-1 on the morning line he may be worth a bit of a gamble. Forrest City moves into the Bill Mott barn and has a right to produce a forward move. Second in most recent three outings at Indianapolis Horseshoe, the son of Munnings is lightly raced with good tactical speed and won’t really have to improve much to win on this tougher circuit at 6-1 on the morning line. He projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from there. Mistical Curlin has two very good recent races, but both were on sloppy surfaces that may have moved him up. Or, perhaps, he’s just improved. We have to use him somewhere.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:50 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Waterville; 4-Stella Mars
Backups/savers: 10-Rheaume.
Forecast: Waterville was a tad unlucky when rallying too late to wind up second in a similar state-bred first level allowance turf router here last month. She’ll add blinkers today for the first time while switching to Joel Rosario so with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase the daughter of Kitten’s Joy should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Stella Mars is protected today after winning her last pair, first in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 claimer and most recently in a competitive stater’s allowance affair with a career top speed figure. A repeat of her last effort may very well be good enough despite the class hike.
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