Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Saratoga Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Moore’s Law
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Mount Craig.
Forecast: With rising speed figures in each of his three career outings, Moore’s Law looks ready to graduate in this nine furlong main track maiden affair for older horses. The son of Good Magic picked up the pieces to be a distant runner-up in a similar affair last month in a hot race for the level and nothing much more will be needed today. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and likely will go lower as a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Missing Fortune; 4-Tosconova Beauty
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Missing Fortune is a razor sharp Finger Lakes shipper moving into the first level allowance ranks after winning a lesser affair by seven easy lengths with a career top speed figure last month. In the frame in seven of eight career starts, the daughter of Mission Impazible projects to enjoy a soft pace stalking/pressing trip from her favorable outside draw, and if she duplicates her most recent performance she can handle this task at 4-1 on the morning line. Tosconova Beauty is the one to fear most. A winner of six of 13 career starts, several of which were earned at Finger Lakes, she was disappointing in her last pair but is better than her 8-1 morning line gives her credit for.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Rocky Sky
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rocky Sky launches a comeback for a barn that has superb stats with layoff runners (29%) and this Grade-3 winner has trained sharply in recent weeks to be fit and ready. This third level allowance race should be well within her capabilities, so at 5/2 on the morning line the Chad Brown-trained filly offers excellent wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Grannys Connection
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Grannys Connection got nailed on the line when missing as the favorite in a similar state bred stakes sprint at Belmont Park in late June but should make amends today in this year’s renewal of the Union Avenue Handicap for older fillies and mares. The Thomas Morley-trained filly clearly should have the lead to herself and given that trip it’s hard to imagine anything catching her. Listed as the 6/5 morning line choice, the daughter of Connect won’t offer any wagering value but can be used as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Gal in a Rush; 2-Bowl of Cherries; 6-Breeze Easy.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Gal in a Rush seems fairly solid in this abbreviated grass dash for second level allowance fillies and mares, having beaten a lesser field in clever fashion at Belmont Park last month while earning a career top speed figure. This trip might be a bit sharp for her, but with good racing luck and little help up front the Christophe Clement-trained filly may be able to tag the leaders close home. Bowl of Cherries, first or second in her last four starts, should fire another big shot again today. She projects to settle right behind leaders and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire. Breeze Easy seems to lack a winning punch (2-for-17) but usually gets a piece of it and is right there with the rest of these on pure numbers.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Rotknee
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Colonel Bowman.
Forecast: Rotknee has really gotten good of late and a repeat of either of his last two starts should be more than good enough to extend his winning streak to three. Most recently, the son of Runhappy crushed a second level allowance field at Belmont Park by almost five lengths while registering a career top triple digit Beyer speed figure, one that makes him likely to extend his winning streak to three despite the class hike to the three-other-than level. Fast enough from his outside draw to make the lead but handy enough to employ stalk and pounce tactics if the race flow dictates, the Michael Maker-trained colt is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and will be playable in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics if you can get close to that price.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Vettriano; 8-Catalina Crush
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Vettriano breezed a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds in the Timonium 2-year-old-in-training sale in May and looked okay, though he failed to change leads while being ridden through the lane. The local work tab looks fairly decent for trainer Chad Brown, so he must be considered a contender, but there is another in here that deserve close consideration as well. Catalina Crush displayed ability breezing a furlong in 10 seconds at the OBS March sale and as a son of Catalina Cruiser has the pedigree to win early. He’s from a high percentage outfit and had an easy solo gate drill last week after arriving from Kentucky. You have to use him somewhere.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:08 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-General Jim; 1-More Than Looks; 2-Carl Spackler
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Let’s go with a bit of a price in this highly contentious renewal of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes-G2 for 3-year-olds. General Jim returns to grass (he won over this course last year) and overall has excellent form on turf. Though he nowhere to be found in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 at Belmont Park last time out, the son of Into Mischief previously won the Pat Day Mile-G2 at Churchill Downs with a triple digit Beyer speed figure, so on his best day Shug’s colt can be very good. Regular pilot Luis Saez knows him well, and in a race that projects to have moderate early splits he could find himself in an ideal stalking position. More Than Looks has rapidly improving form, and this son of More Than Ready could easily be this good with another forward move. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail, and with some help up front he could produce a dangerous late kick. Carl Spackler was disappointing when unplaced in the American Turf S.-G2 at Churchill Downs. Perhaps he didn’t care for the course, because based on highly rated maiden score at Gulfstream Park he should have been far more competitive. He deserves a chance to bounce back, so we’ll include him on our ticket.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Americanrevolution
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Americanrevolution is even money on the morning line, and if he returns as well as he left the high class New York-bred horse will carry his high weight of 126 lbs. to victory in this year’s edition of the Evan Shipman Handicap. A Grade-1 winner of the Cigar Mile in 2021 and most recently an excellent second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup-G1 here last September, the son of Constitution has won fresh in the past and shows a work tab that should have him fit enough for this main track, state-bred mile affair. Regular pilot Luis Saez rides for Todd Pletcher, and from his rail post he should be able to settle into the second flight, ground-saving trip and then take control when ready.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Michele M.; 10-Saratoga Gaze; 1-Magniloquent; 6-Quick Power Nap.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claiming fillies and mares is borderline inscrutable. Use as many as you can afford to in your rolling exotic play. Michele M. drops into a seller for the first turn, turns back in trip, adds blinkers for the first time, and earned a speed figure two runs back that makes her highly competitive under these conditions. The Clement-Rosario trainer/jockey combo always must be respected, so let’s go with this sophomore daughter of West Coast on top. Saratoga Gaze, third in her last pair, will enjoy clear sailing outside, and with patient handling she can settle in the second flight and then produce a dangerous late kick. Magniloquent represents inside speed and if she can shake loose early she could take her rivals a long way. Quick Power Nap, freshened since early July, has finished in the frame in all three prior outings over the Saratoga turf course figures to be running on strongly through the lane.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Sweetest Prince; 3-Ghostly Girl
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Sweetest Princess drops into a claimer for the first time and may have found her friends. Stakes-placed in New York bred company earlier in the year, the George Weaver-trained sophomore has been chasing tougher all year long without registering a win, but she has numbers that fit very nicely at this level, so we’re expecting the daughter of Cairo Prince to snap to life. “Win rider” Javier Castellano returns, so let’s put her on top at 7/2 on the morning line. Ghostly Girl is another dropping to her lowest level ever and should go better against this group. The Kentucky invader has speed figures that are competitive but is unproven on grass.
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