Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Please Focus; 4-Seismic Spirit; 7-Hacking It Up
Backups/savers: 6-Paulliac
Forecast: There are several possibilities in this starter optional claimer over a mile on turf, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out. Please Focus tries two turns again and surely will employ gate-to-wire tactics, though the presence of sprinter-stretching-out Seismic Spirit could produce a hotly contested early pace and chaos could result. If the fractions turn out to be hot and heavy, late running Hacking It Up, who wore down Please Focus when they met in early February, could produce another winning late bid. So, given the unpredictable nature of the race flow, we’ll go three deep trying cover all of the various scenarios, which means including Please Focus, Seismic Spirit (can he stalk and win?) and Hacking It Up, while also tossing in the deep closing Paulliac on a backup ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Wegonahavagoodtime
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Wegonahavagoodtime broke his maiden two races back in good fashion, was claimed for $20,000, and then finished unplaced when facing restricted (nw-2) $32,000 on grass in his most recent outing last month. Back on his preferred surface (dirt), the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding should be capable of regaining his winning form with his best effort. Looking very much like a logical winner at a short price, he’s a no-value rolling exotic single. Tread lightly.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Johannes
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Johannes has quickly developed into an outstanding sophomore turf performer, and after winning his previous two starts for fun around one turn, the son of Nyquist gets a chance to show he can do the same over a distance of ground. We’re fairly convinced that he will handle the extra ground just fine. In a race that projects to have a solid if not fast pace, the Tim Yakteen-trained colt can drop over, get cover, and then accelerate when given his cue at the head of lane. However, at 4/5 on the morning line he doesn’t offer any value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Foothill; 5-Mr. T’s Thirsty
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Foothill can beat this field with his best effort, but his best always has come on turf and today’s race is on the main track, so he’s hardly a slam dunk. Still, the son of Vronsky should be tough; he’s reunited with “win rider” Frankie Dettori and seems certain to receive the patient ride he prefers. In a race in which there should be enough early pace to compliment his style, the Doug O’Neill-trained veteran looks capable of wearing down the leaders in the final furlong. Mr. T’s Thirsty is another closer hoping for legitimate fractions. He has scored over this main track in the past and has numbers that make him a contender, though he’s winless since December of 2021 and may have seen better days. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that might be best left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Admiral Halsey
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Admiral Halsey shows up in a maiden claimer for the first and should greatly appreciate the class drop. Rusty off a layoff and unplaced in his most recent outing with a less than ideal trip, the son of War Front is realistically spotted while switching to top rider Juan Hernandez, so with any kind of forward move the Peter Miller-trained gelding can settle in the second flight and then make his winning move through the stretch. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bella Renella; 4-Emily Smiles
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bella Renella finished second at 70 cents on the dollar when waiver protected in a $10,000 claimer last month in her first outing in 11 months, but she actually ran quite well in traffic from the rail and probably was best. She should be fitter and sharper today with that tightener behind her, so we’re expecting the veteran daughter of Clubhouse Rise to make amends. A four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, she seems quite solid at 9/5 on the morning line. Emily Smiles is worth including on your ticket as well, at least in the role of a backup. The Bay Area invader has crossed the wire first in her last four starts (she was disqualified in one of those races) while earning decent speed figures, but of course those races were over a synthetic surface. She has won a race dirt, though, so we’re expecting the Jonathan Wong-trained mare to be a factor throughout from a stalking position.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Du Jour
Backups/savers: 4-Exaulted.
Forecast: Du Jour finished second in photo finishes in both of his outings at this meeting against similar graded stakes winning middle distance turf competition, so he’s due for some luck. Perhaps best when beaten last time, the Bob Baffert-trained gelding was forced wide without cover throughout yet kept to his task when rallying against the race-shape to just miss in the Kilroe Mile-G1 last time out against arguably tougher competition and earned a career top speed figure in the process. With a ground-saving trip today, he should be able to settle in the second flight and then produce a winning late kick. Exaulted has found a home on turf (he’s two-for-two since switching surfaces), and while he’s clearly tackling tougher foes than he’s been beating the Peter Eurton-trained veteran has speed figures that make him dangerous. You should including him as a backup or a saver, at least.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Myfavoritedaughter; 5-Ole Silver
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Myfavoritedaughter was no factor in a tougher first-level allowance race on turf in her most recent appearance but this starter’s field should be well within her capabilities based on her previous form that includes a win over conventional dirt. The Vladimir Cerin-trained filly shows a steady, healthy work pattern for her first outing in more than two months, and with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider Umberto Rispoli she should a have every chance to step forward at 5-1 on the morning line. Ole Silver always can be dangerous as the controlling speed, but she has stalked and won as well, and with sprinter-stretching-out Everlys Girl likely to employ front-running tactics the veteran Phil D’Amato-trained mare projects to inherit a comfortable early stalking position. Freshened since October, the daughter of Acclamation has won off the bench in the past and her recent workouts look solid. She also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aguilar, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’s strictly the one to beat.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Lucky For You
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Lucky for You shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and seems primed for a significant forward move in this maiden special weight grass miler for fillies and mares. The daughter of Uncle Mo had no excuse when second at 70 cents on the dollar in her most recent outing, but with a couple of months off, good recent workouts, and in her first start around two turns, the Bob Baffert-trained four-year-old appears well-placed to graduate. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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