Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-In Your Face; 4-Katerini
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-De Joria; 11-Magazine.
Forecast: In Your Face takes a realistic class drop, has numbers that fit, and gets a major jockey switch to top rider Juan Hernandez. She may not be totally trustworthy, but this is a race she can win with her best effort. Katerini moves up a notch for new trainer Steve Knapp (cold meeting, so far), and though she’s won on the front end going long may be most effective if held up early and allowed to rally late. We’ll assume she gets that type of ride from Umberto Rispoli.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Nothing Like You
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Nothing Like You stretches out for the first time and projects to be prominent throughout, maybe even the controlling speed, in this main track miler for juvenile fillies. A decent fourth in a strong sprint last time out, she retains top rider Juan Hernandez for trainer Bob Baffert, who hits at a powerful 29% with the sprint-to-route angle. In a shallow six runner affair, she’s a logical rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 9/5.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Legislator
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Legislator has steadily improved since joining the Peter Miller barn, switches to top turf rider Umberto Rispoli, owns a significant edge in the speed figure department, and should be along in time at a short price. He’s back with maidens after performing extremely well in considerably tougher allowance company, so everything is aligned properly.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Super Chief
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Colt Fiction.
Forecast: Super Chief couldn’t handle sharp next out winner Tapatio Leo when a distant runner-up in a hot race at Del Mar at this level last month but a similar performance today should be more than good enough to handle this state-bred first level allowance sprint. The son of Awesome Again removes blinkers, gains top rider Juan Hernandez, and projects to be a no value rolling exotic single at 4/5 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Respect the Crown; 1-Not a Sinner; 6-Icecreamuscream.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Impec.
Forecast: Respect the Crown made up a ton of ground in a promising debut over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar but simply ran out of room at a distance that probably was a bit too sharp for her. The daughter of Palace Malice gets an extra furlong to work with for a barn that has strong stats with the second time starter angle, so were expecting the Jeff Mullins-trained juvenile to make her presence felt close home. Not a Sinner displayed reasonable ability when third of 11 in her debut in Ireland in July. Based on that race, the Simon Callaghan-trained filly should be quite competitive on this circuit, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll consider her a legitimate contender. Iscreamuscream is a first timer with fast works from Los Alamitos and looks very much like a live item for trainer Phil D'Amato. She smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds (fastest during her preview session) before bringing $145,000 though the ring at the OBS March sale, so this daughter of Twirling Candy from a stakes winning mare is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Chaos Reigns; 9-Habeas.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast Chaos Reigns adds blinkers for the first time and exits a fast, highly rated race won by next out starters allowance runaway winner Ghost to Midnight. There is nothing even remotely as good as that gelding in this race, so the son of Malibu Moon may finally be able to secure his diploma in this bottom rung $20,000 maiden claiming sprint. A recent bullet five furlong gate drill (:59 flat) earlier this month signals a forward move is imminent. Habeas has hit the board in his last three starts – all at this level – and should be able to win one of these eventually. We’ll toss him in, but failing to win at 1/5 two races back makes him hard to trust.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ultimate Hy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Rose Maddox; 1-Organic.
Forecast: Ultimate Hy is effective at any distance but has yet to win a Hillside Turf sprint in four tries. She’ll get another chance today in this year’s edition of the California Distaff Handicap and the veteran mare, currently in excellent form, looks well-spotted to regain her top form in this tricky dash restricted to California-bred runners. She’s reunited with “win rider” Umberto Rispoli, and in race that projects to have moderate early fractions the Carla Gaines-trained six-year-old seems likely to inherit an ideal second flight, stalking position and have every chance from there.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sheza Girly Girl; 3-A New Peace.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Awesome Taylor.
Forecast: Sheza Girly Girl was claimed for $20,000 out of a disappointing run at Del Mar in early August and makes her first start in nine weeks for new trainer Ron Ellis on the class drop to $12,500, certainly not a healthy sign. She’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, so if she has at least one good one left the daughter of Richard’s Kid should be able to handle this modest assignment, but that’s a big if. A New Peace, in the frame in five of her last six starts with two wins, is in good form, though she isn’t likely to handle our top pick if that one brings her best stuff. But if not, the Mike Puype-trained mare has a legitimate look as the race’s 5/2 second choice. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Big Hat Willie; 7-Big Coupe.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Caisson; 4-Giovinazzo.
Forecast: Big Hat Willie earned a career top figure when beating a starter’s allowance field at Del Mar on dirt, moves up a level (to nw-3) while switching to grass, and rates a legitimate chance to repeat in his first try on turf. The Peter Miller-trained gelding picks up Juan Hernandez, is nicely drawn inside, and should be prominent throughout. Big Coupe hasn’t been out since November of 2021 but returns protected in a sign of confidence and has numbers during his 3-year-old season that make him a major player with this group, if ready. The barn does well with layoff runners and the work tab should have him fit enough, she he’s a “must use” and a strong contender.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Arrowhead
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Breakfast Ride; 7-Smart Mo.
Forecast: Arrowthegreat was a visually pleasing winner in a maiden main track miler at Del Mar last month while earning a career top speed figure and with another slight forward move today he can score right back on the raise. The Dan Blacker-trained sophomore is lightly raced and improving with each start and shows a strong, healthy work pattern since raced, so we expect the best is yet to come. Let’s make him a win play at 5-1 on the morning line and the main push in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:30 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Grap Nuts Warrior; 8-Tiz Plus; 3-Overdue.
Backups/savers: 6-Birth of Cool.
Forecast: Grape Nuts Warrior may be as good as any in this grass grab bag for $25,000 older claimers. Now in the Bob Hess, Jr., stable and switching to the barn’s “go to” rider Kent Desormeaux, the veteran son of Vancouver suffered a tough beat when missing in a photo in a similar affair at Del Mar in late August after striking the front close home. A repeat of that effort today makes him the one to beat. Tiz Plus has form that puts him right there, though he’s winless in seven previous starts over the Santa Anita grass course. He won a restricted $32,000 affair at Del Mar with a strong number but shows up in his first start for Doug O’Neill on the one level price drop, so there are mixed signals with regards to his current condition. Overdue got fractions to run at and took advantage of the race flow when winning at this level in July at Del Mar, but then disappeared. He’s another with question marks but is good enough to win with his best effort.
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