Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-See Through It; 5-Natural Power
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The two main players in this six furlong turf sprint over the flat course are drawn outside and exit the same race, the starter allowance grass dash last month won by Maven. See Though It ran well to be beaten a head in a solid performance in that event and a similar effort today puts him right there once again and earns him top billing. Natural Power responded willingly through the lane to wind up third and should fire again; his main issue is a lack of tactical speed that often gives him too much to do. In a race that doesn’t offer any real wagering value, both can be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1 Arham; 4-Piroli
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Arham had a sprint tightener at Turf Paradise last month in his first start since December of 2021, and after finishing a steady third in a fast heat the son of Union Rags should be much sharper and fitter today. A perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track, the Vladimir Cerin-trained six-year-old lands the rail and likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics, though recent winner It’s My House should keep him company and may soften him up. The barn’s “go-to” rider Kent Desormeaux picks the mount, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top. Piroli isn’t quite as fast on speed figures as our top pick, but his numbers continue to rise and may do so again as the son of Battle of Midway seeks his fourth straight score. Likely to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip, the Michael McCarthy-trained gelding will be the beneficiary if a quick and contested pace materializes. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with Arham preferred on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:58 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Beaudacious; 1-Franklin One Star
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming sprint on grass drew just six starters and came up soft. Beaudacious, winless in more than two years, gets top billing by default. With speed figures that can win and in a race without much early pace, the son of Karakontie should find himself in a cozy stalking position and then have every chance to prove his superiority under pressure late. We like the switch to hot-riding Hector Berrios (excellent on grass), so at 5/2 on the morning line he looks like the best of the lot. Franklin One Star is a “must use” in a race that may allow him to be the controlling front runner. Despite showing only one meager third place finish in five starts over the local lawn, the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding could shake loose early and get brave after stumbling at the start and losing his best chance when fourth in the same race our top pick just finished third in (they wound up a neck apart). We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tennessee Moon; 1-California Bling
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Tennessee Moon missed at 4/5 in a similar bottom-rung maiden claimer in late March when failing to come even remotely close the speed figures she had earned in her previous two starts facing tougher foes. Hard to say if she is capable of repeating her best efforts but if she does she’ll make amends, though at 2-1 on the morning line she’s hardly one to trust. California Bling is a six race maiden with two third place finishes, hardly an inspiring resume, but her numbers make her a major player and her pedigree suggests that she can improve in her first try over conventional dirt. This also will be her first start at the bottom rung ($20,000) maiden claiming level, so if she can run at all, this would be a nice spot to show it.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Giovinazzo; 1-Hula Candy
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Giovinazzo has rapidly rising speed figures and looks ready to graduate in his fifth career start in this six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for older straight maidens. This field appears to be no better than average, so he’ll have every chance to graduate unless one or more of the newcomers perform better than anticipated. Hula Candy looks the best of the first timers, as evidenced by his :58 3/5 five furlong team drill last month while besting the older Sir Atticus, who last week finished fourth in a decent debut on dirt in a hot race. From a stable that rarely wins first out of the box, the son of Twirling Candy nonetheless must be taken seriously in a field that lacks depth. Both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Book Smart; 4-Goldenspa
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Book Smart returns to the claiming ranks and switches back to the dirt seeking his winning level and may have found it in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 abbreviated sprint. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding has plenty of early zip, and if he leaves cleanly from the rail the son of Stanford may shake loose and never look back. Goldenspa is another class dropper that should be highly competitive at this level. Most effective from off the pace, the son of Goldencents has numbers that fit but will need some help up front. If things break his way, the Doug O’Neill-trained colt could tag the speed close home.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Irish Royalty; 1-Devil Among Us
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Irish Royalty makes his first career start on grass but if he can transfer his Northern California synthetic track form to this surface (and offspring of Grazen usually do) he can pull off a mild surprise in this allowance optional claiming flat course dash for California-bred 3-year-olds. A three time winner at Golden Gate Fields, he has speed figures that fit and a good stalking style that should ensure a trouble-free journey. He earned a career top mark in a sharp starter’s allowance score two weeks ago and if he doesn’t regress due to the quick turnaround the Reid France-trained colt can fit very well on this circuit. Devil Among Us has enough early speed to use his rail post to good advantage and may even be in front if he leaves sharply. The Phil D’Amato-trained colt exits a much tougher heat when winding up a distant third behind Kangaroo Court; his solid runner-up try two races back charts very well with these.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Dr. Schivel; 4-C Z Rocket
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This open allowance sprint for older horses looks very much like a graded stakes, with both Dr. Schivel and C Z Rocket holding a decided class edge over the others in the five runner affair. However, each has a question mark surrounding his current condition.. The former was last seen finishing unplaced in the 2022 Dubai Golden Shaheen and has a right to be rusty off the long layoff, though he has looked good in his comeback works and should be fit enough. ‘Rocket seems to have lost a bit of his early speed at age nine but still always gives everything he has. A bullet half mile drill (:47 3/5) at San Luis Rey Downs in late April is a good indicator that he has returned from the Middle East in good health. Both should be used in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll other pass.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Offlee Naughty
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Offlee Naughty is vastly improved judging by his last two races (both easy wins) and looks well-spotted to extend his streak to three in this year’s renewal of the San Luis Rey Stakes-G3 for older turf marathoners. The Michael McCarthy-trained five-year-old rallied into the teeth of slow fractions to win the Charles Whittingham Stakes-G2 with authority over the local lawn at 10 furlongs last month against a similar field and today’s extra quarter of a mile shouldn’t hurt in the least. Listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite after winning at 11-1 last time out, the son of Flashback won’t offer anywhere near that kind of wagering value today but seems like a logical rolling exotic single in the Saturday nightcap.
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