Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Hot Tea
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Hot Tea was well-backed (9/2) in a live race in October of 2021 in her only outing to date and didn’t quite run to her potential when sixth of eight behind three fillies who proceeded to become stakes performers. Now four, the daughter of Nyquist returns for trainer Richard Mandella with a series of breezing workouts that stamp her as a potential standout in this turf dash for maiden fillies and mares. She’ll have to tote 126 lbs. while given away considerable weight to her younger rivals, but it may not matter based on what she’s done in the morning while preparing for her comeback. The barn has superior stats with layoff runners, so with Frankie taking the call let’s make her a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Papale; 5-Settecento
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claimer for older horses at a mile on the main track. Papale, claimed in his last pair, was below his best form when pressing the pace before wilting under pressure last time out but his clever win two races back charts well with these, so let’s give him a chance to regain his winning form, especially with the switch to Frankie. He’s probably most effective as the controlling speed, so we’re expecting to see that strategy employed. Settecento exits the same race as our top pick, and after dueling with that one to quarter pole paid the price when fading to fifth in the late stages. The Congrats gelding certainly can improve, as he projects to inherit a comfortable pace stalking position outside and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll give Papale a very slight edge on top but will use both equally in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Boss
Sully
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Boss Sully exits an infinitely tougher open maiden turf sprint and under the circumstances didn’t do badly at all after breaking slowly, becoming rank, and then racing wide before staying on well to be fourth while earning a speed figure that should be more than good enough to beat this California-bred field. The son of Street Boss is comfortably drawn outside and can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the race flow. The barn has outstanding stats with the second time starter angle, making this promising colt a standout in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Youteyourhonor
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Youteyourhonor stretches out again after an even effort against a stronger sprint field for the level than this one, and since she’s won two-turning in the past we don’t believe the added distance will be a hindrance. The pace scenario in this five runner main track miler looks soft, so it wouldn’t be out of the question to see this daughter of Danzing Candy inherit the role as the controlling speed. “Win rider” Juan Hernandez stays aboard, so let’s take a stand on this Vladimir Cerin trained mare with five wins from 14 career starts as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Harper’s Gallop; 4-Feathers
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Harper’s Gallop has really gotten good of late, most recently taking her field gate to wire in a similar starter’s allowance turf event for $25,000 fillies and mares while doing so like a mare who can score right back. Though she was able to establish a very slow pace in that race before proving impossible to catch, the Leonard Powell-trained 7-year-old mare can win from a stalking position just as well, so Frankie can assess the situation during the early stages and then choose his strategy. Feathers was dull when off the board as the favorite in her most recent outing in November at Del Mar and was subsequently given a breather by new trainer Jeff Mullins, who brings her back protected in a sign of confidence in a race she’s capable of winning with anything close to her best effort. The Irish-bred mare retains Juan Hernandez and seems certain to receive the patient ride that brings out her best. Her recent series of workouts aren’t flashy but should have her fit enough. We’ll prefer Harper’s Gallop on top but use both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Beverly Vista; 2-Dillinger
Backups/savers: 3-Mystification
Forecast: Beverly Vista has done some very good work in the morning leading up to his racing debut, and although bred to run long the son of Arrogate appears to have sufficient quality to be a very live item sprinting in his racing debut. The Phil D’Amato barn hits at a low percentage with first time starters, but this colt could prove to be the exception to the rule. In a competitive maiden special weight sprint for sophomores, he’s worth a play in the win pool but we’ll protect with others in the various rolling exotics. Dillinger finished a willing third in a hot maiden dash at Del Mar last summer in his debut before being stopped on and returns with a work tab that certainly should have him cranked up and ready. The Bob Baffert-trained colt recently breezed six furlongs in 1:11 1/5 from the gate while slightly best over a stable mate to indicate he’s returning as well as he left or perhaps better. The son of Into Mischief is the likely choice and one to beat. Also worth tossing in on a ticket or two as a saver is Mystification, a $250,000 two-year-old in training purchase at the April OBS sale last year. The son of Good Magic may not be a quick type but can turn it on late, and with some help up front might make his presence felt in the closing stages.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Tea N Conversation; 3-The Wild Geezer; 6-Princess Bettina
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This year’s edition of the China Doll Stakes is a competitive affair with several possibilities. Listed at 5-1 on the morning line, the improving Tea N Conversation offers some wagering value under the expectation that her development will continue in this one mile grass event for sophomore fillies. The daughter of Candy Ride wants to settle and produce one late kick and if given that type of ride from new jockey John Velasquez she could pull off a mild surprise. In her most recent start, the Michael McCarthy-trained filly rallied against moderate fractions and was going as well as anything in the race in the final stages when winding up fourth, beaten less than two lengths, before galloping out strongly in front past the wire. The Wild Geezer and Princess Bettina, two-three finishers in the China Doll, should fire big shots again and won’t need to improve much to win it. We’ll include them on our ticket but the main punch goes to Tea N Conversation.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Trusty Rusty
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Trusty Rusty stretches out for the first time, is a strong fit on speed figures, drops to the bottom level (maiden $30,000) and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in this modest affair for sophomores. All of the stars are aligned for a major effort, one that should be good enough for the son of Tapiture to earn his diploma. Top rider Juan Hernandez stays aboard, so as the second at 5/2 on the morning line the Doug O’Neill-trained ridgeling rates the call in the win pool and is a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Awesomer Taylor
Backups/savers: 2-She’s Got a Way; 9-Paleo’s Princess
Forecast: Awesome Taylor looks like an interesting gamble at 8-1 on the morning line in this starter optional abbreviated turf sprint for fillies and mares. She earned a career top speed figure when a better-than-looked fourth over a mile in her first outing since November and should step forward with that tightener under her belt while being re-equipped with blinkers. Her new trainer won three races last week, so perhaps this daughter of Classic Empire can add to the hot streak. She’ll be doing her best work late. She’s Got a Way and Paleo’s Princess finished two-three at this level in an extended sprint last time out; both should be run as well today despite having a furlong less to work with. All three deserve inclusion on your rolling exotic ticket with Awesome Gambler getting the bulk of the play.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:01 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Ruby Nell
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ruby Nell ran a whole lot better than the line will show when finishing strongly but too late in a troubled but smart runner-up performance on grass in her debut earlier this meeting. There’s no reason she won’t be able to transfer that type of effort to the main track, especially from her cozy outside draw that will allow her to settle early and accelerate late when given her cue. This a very talented filly, one with stakes potential, and we’re expecting to see her best stuff in this extended dash for maiden sophomore fillies. She’s listed as the solid favorite at 8/5 on the morning line and that seems about right.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:031 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Leyas Candy
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The finale is a first level allowance slalom affair for California-bred older horses. Leyas Candy was no match for The Chosen Vron in the Tiznow Stakes (no disgrace there) but earned a career top speed figure in doing so and today shortens up, tries turf for the first time, and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking, ground-saving trip. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding absolutely can win this race if he can transfer his main track form to this tricky downhill course and based on pedigree there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to do. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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