Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Phenom
Backups/savers: 7-Shared Future
Forecast: Phenom always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong but when she can sneak away on the front end without being pressed early the Phil D’Amato-trained filly usually runs well, as she did in her gate-to-wire maiden win sprinting at Del Mar three races back. Freshened since mid-February and stretching out again to a mile, the daughter of Midnight Storm surely will have the front end to herself. She was run down late in both of her two prior route attempts and maybe the same results awaits, but in a race lacking in effective closers she might be able to hang on against this group. Shared Future is unproven on turf but has the ability to produce a decent late kick if given a patient ride and may be the most dangerous of the late runners. A four time winner with solid speed figures for the level, the daughter of Twirling Candy would seem to be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for. In a race in which nothing would surprise, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Bonita Leona; 1-A Broken Breeze
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bonita Leona toyed with restricted (nw-3) $20,000 foes over this track and distance last month and with that condition no longer available she is realistically spotted in this open company $10,000 seller. The daughter of Smiling Tiger should be prominent throughout – perhaps even on the lead – and based on speed figures the Steve Knapp-trained filly should be capable of winning right back. A Broken Breeze was sharp in victory two races back at this level but then was flat as a pancake when a dull fourth at odds-on in her most recent outing when raised a notch to $12,500. Freshened for two months, she returns to the bottom, lands the good rail, and is likely to bounce back with her best effort. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Apple Warrior; 6-Rhythem On Stage
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Though he has trained like nothing special, Apple Warrior may have found a field he can handle at first asking in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred runners that came up unusually weak. The John Sadler-trained colt is bred for speed and sports a work tab that should have him plenty fit, so in the absence of a viable alternative and with top rider Juan Hernandez taking the call, he seems as good as any. Rhythem On Stage has a race three back that probably would beat this field, but two subsequent outings were disappointing. On the chance that he shows up with his best stuff today, the Carla Gaines-trained gelding is worth including somewhere on your ticket. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): In Vronsky Style; 7-Exceed Speed Limit
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: After being worn down late to miss by a head in a similar turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred runners, In Vronsky Style really shouldn’t miss this opportunity over the same course and distance and will have every chance to stick it out today in a race without any effective closers in the lineup. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding always has been vulnerable in the late stages of his races, but these are his friends and we’re expecting him to seize the opportunity. Freshened since February but with a solid series of recent drills at Los Alamitos, the lightly raced six-year-old gelding will offer a bit of value if he leaves at or near his morning line of 5/2. Exceed Speed Limit is worth including on your ticket just in case our top pick again falters close home. He’s a five-time winner with strong speed figures for the level and clearly is the most dangerous of the off-the-pace types.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Anarchist; 4-Brickyard Ride
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Anarchist is a progressive four-year-old and the Doug O’Neill-trained colt appears ready to produce another forward move in this year’s edition of the Kona Gold S.-G3. Most effective as a stalker or presser, the son of Distorted Humor projects to settle behind the committed front runner Brickyard Ride and then have every chance to tag that one in the final furlong. The latter may have lost a step or two at age six, but he is a nine time winner over the Santa Anita main track and always must be respected. He’ll take them as far as he can.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Kitty Kitana; 2-One Silk Stocking
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Kitty Kitana was pulled up abruptly in the Buena Vista S.-G2 entering the far turn as if she had gone wrong, but the English-bred filly walked off on her own power and clearly is okay. She returns over a tricky downhill turf course that she has run well on in the past, and with a healthy series of works in recent weeks to have her primed and ready the Phil D’Amato-trained import should fire her best shot. We like her strongly on top but will also include One Silk Stocking. She was asked to face colts last time out – we have no idea why – and should regain her best form under these conditions. A prior winner over the Hillside Course, she projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking trip and then have a good shot from the dirt crossing to the wire.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Casia
Backups/savers: 1-Sugar Sugar; 8-Balenciaga Betty.
Forecast: Casia walked out of the gate in her debut at Turf Paradise last month when facing maiden special weight company and then did okay to close a gap and wind up a better-than-looked fifth. If she leaves with her field today, the Vladimir Cerin-trained four-year-old should be highly competitive in this modest bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Bug boy Alsagoor has become something of a go-to rider for this stable, so when it all adds up the daughter of Acclamation looks extremely live and well-meant. Sugar Sugarmay be the best of the local contingent but she’s a 14-race maiden and definitely not one to trust. You can toss her in as a backup along with the class dropping Balenciaga Betty, who is comfortably drawn outside and is competitive on speed figures at this level.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Topolina; 4-Paleo’s Princess
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Topolina looked like the winner in mid-stretch but was collared late and finished a close third in a similar starter optional claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares last month. She’ll have to negotiate an extra furlong today but likely will enjoy softer early splits which could help her see out the trip. Excellent speed rider Edwin Maldonado will do his best to keep her together in the final stages. Paleo’s Princess, sixth in the same race our top pick exits, needs to be taken back early and produced late, and given that type of ride could make some serious noise at 10-1. She has a prior win over the local lawn and will be making her third start off a layoff, so she’ll have no excuses.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Defunded
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Defunded is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the Californian S-G2 and seems certain to go even lower than that. Worn down late in the Santa Anita Handcap-G1 last month after cutting out all the fractions in a huge effort, the son of Dialed In shortens up a furlong, lands the good rail, and will be the controlling speed without having to be sent. He’s actually dropping three pounds to 122 as well. We’ll make him a short priced, no value, rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise should be passed.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Smooth Salute
Backups/savers: 5-Neon Lights; 2-O’Banion
Forecast: The locals do nothing for us, so let’s sink or swim with three newcomers in this downhill turf course maiden special weight grass affair. Debuting Smooth Salute has done some good work in the morning for Michael McCarthy, including a visually pleasing :59 2/5 gate (fourth fastest of 99) six days ago while looking to have at least a fair amount of ability. Based on that drill alone he’s worth at least a small gamble at 8-1 on the morning line in what looks to be a softer than average affair. Neon Lights got left at the gate in his debut earlier this year in Ireland but stayed on nicely to finish with some energy to be fourth while earning a Timeform rating that makes him a fit with these. The main concern is that in a recent gate work (4f, :47.3hg) he broke poorly again. Hopefully, he can leave with his field today, and if he does he should make his presence felt. O’Banion apparently has worked pretty well at Los Alamitos for trainer Phil D’Amato and his only outing last summer in Ireland wasn’t bad (fourth of nine). Based on his connections, you have to include him.
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