“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Talklessworkmore; 5-Fore Flag; 8-Don’thinkjustdoit.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-California Boy.
Forecast: Talklessworkmore gets top billing in this state-bred first level allowance turf miler, but his chances depend upon his securing a front-running trip without undue pressure. If that happens, he should be tough to catch but if he’s pressured early, he’ll be vulnerable. Fore Flag may be the most dangerous of the closers but he’s just 1-for-17 with nine seconds and thirds and isn’t one to trust. Don’tthinkjustdoit was graded stakes placed as a 2-year-old but hasn’t been seen for more than a year. We have a feeling he might need the race, but he did win his debut, so you know he’s capable of firing fresh. You should probably toss him in somewhere. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Coffee in Bed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Liberal Lady.
Forecast: Coffee in Bed was overmatched in the Torrey Pines Stakes (she finished a distant fourth) but she’s where she belongs today so we expect she’ll regain her winning form. The Richard Mandella-trained daughter of Curlin ran quite well in her two previous starts over the Santa Anita main track and simply should outclass this first level allowance main track miler for fillies and mares. She’s 8/5 on morning line and probably will go lower.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Rugelach
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rugelach demolished a high priced maiden claiming field at Del Mar in her first start since arriving from the East and was promptly claimed by Ron Ellis, who wheels her back protected in this starter allowance turf miler. She won her race gate-to-wire, but we suspect she’ll settle into a stalking position and be just as effective from there if the situation calls for it. Listed at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’ll be a short price in the win pool and as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-California Tiger; 5-Logon to Win.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: California Tiger shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and may have found his winning level. The Smiling Tiger gelding also sports the ever popular blinkers off angle and has numbers that fit very well in this league, so it would seem the Jeff Mullins-trained California-bred is strictly the one to beat, though not offering a whole lot of value at 2-1 on the morning line. Logon to Win, a seven race maiden, finished a fair-to-moderate second at this level at this trip at Los Alamitos last month. A similar effort today should at least land him in the frame.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Laudatory
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Thermal.
Forecast: The known element doesn’t impress so let’s take a stand with a fresh face. We have no video on Laudatory (she’s been prepared exclusively at Los Alamitos), but the circumstantial evidence suggests she may have enough ability to win at first asking in this juvenile turf sprint for fillies. The Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Cairo Prince recorded a bullet drill of :59 1/5 last Monday and before that produced a few other drills that were much faster than average, so with leading rider Juan Hernandez taking the call we’ll assume that she’s live and well-meant. Additionally, based on pedigree, she should like the grass, as her half-brother Camp Hope was a turf stakes winner at Keeneland as a 2-year-old.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Tahoe Secrets
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tahoe Secrets looks pretty solid in this $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint due to having speed figures that are good enough to win and a six race resume that makes him far less exposed than most of the others. This is his softest (and cheapest) spot to date but it’s where he belongs, plain and simple. At or near his morning line of 3-1, the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding represents a reasonable gamble, but we suspect he’ll go lower.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-X J Rascal; 7-Del Mar Jerry.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Baj.
Forecast: X J Rascal blew a four length lead in mid-stretch when worn down close home in a middle distance affair at Del Mar at this level last month but today he shortens in trip while trying the Hillside Course. The Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding was primarily a sprinter in decent handicap races overseas, so these conditions should fit him perfectly. We’re expecting he’ll receive the patient ride he requires form Mike Smith, who got to know him last time out. Del Mar Jerry makes his first start as a gelding and retains Juan Hernandez after earning a career top speed figure in an abbreviated turf sprint at Del Mar in mid-August in a race in which he finished fifth while finding five furlongs too sharp. At 6-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Desmond Doss; 7-Mor Tequila.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Lovesick Blues.
Forecast: Desmond Doss returns to his favorite track (never off the board in six starts, with three wins), so we’re expecting the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding to snap back to top form in this second level allowance sprint. This extended sprint distance is perfect for his mid-pack, closing style, and based on speed figures he’s more than good enough to produce a winning late kick against this group. Mor Tequila may very well be the best of the speed but he’s drawn comfortably outside, so the option is there to stalk, and then pounce should the race flow dictate that kind of trip.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Hamwood Flier; 1-Eddie’s New Dream.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Lucky Girl; 8-Unbridled Mary.
Forecast: Hamwood Flier is a perfect two-for-two over this course and distance and in fact won this race – the Swingtime Stakes – last year. Furthermore, she’s won off a similar layoff in the past, so we’re expecting her to fire a winning shot fresh in her first start since last December for trainer Phil D’Amato, who has superior stats with the layoff angle. Eddie’s New Dream is in peak form and always gives her best. She’s a four time winner over the Santa Anita lawn and is fresh from a clever score in the Solana Beach Stakes at Del Mar. She projects to be first over if our top pick comes up short in the closing stages.
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