Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Bad Uncle Barry; 2-Broheim
Backups/savers: 2-Broheim.
Forecast: Bad Uncle Barry has been away since October but has trained like he’s fit and ready for M. Glatt, who has an exceptional record with layoff runners. The son of Good Magic is four years old now but still has time to become quite a useful race horse and showed last year that one turn grass racing might be his favorite thing to do. At this extended sprint distance he should be capable of tagging the speed close home. Broheim makes a trainer change from L. Mendez to M. McCarthy and seems certain to improve after breaking slowly and never threatening in a fast, highly rated main track sprint. The son of Not This Time has trained very well since his debut and with a clean start this time he should be on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-Where’s the Loot; 4-Special Club.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The winner of this first level allowance main track sprint almost certainly will be one of the two favorites. They’re tough to separate, but we’ll give the edge on top to Where’s the Loot, who overcame a poor start to prove tons the best in a maiden $50,000 dash last month. While this is a tougher assignment, the T. Yakteen should easily inherit the role as the controlling speed (assuming he breaks well this time) and have every chance to wire the field. Special Club returns to dirt (perhaps his preferred surface) and will be charging in the final furlong. He’s the likely favorite but ‘Loot is faster on figures and earned his number despite trouble.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 1-Respect the Crown; 4-Discrepancy; 3-Ace Ace Baby
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claiming $20,000 main track sprint for fillies and mares has nothing in it to embrace, so we’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough., Respect the Crown has been chasing tougher and should greatly appreciate this drop to the lower level. She’s never displayed much tactical speed, so she’ll need to find clear sailing from her rail post. Discrepancy is another dropping to the bottom and like our top pick tends to be sluggish during the early going, However, a repeat of her race before last – a solid second on grass with a career top speed figure – puts her in the thick of things. There is no guarantee she can do the same on dirt, though. Ace Ace Baby is yet another class dropper trying to find her proper level. She’s got some early speed and will take them as far as she can.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: City Exile (GB); 5-Ottoman Prince (IRE)
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: City Exile (GB) seems fairly solid in this allowance optional claimer over a mile on grass and should be set to regain his winning form after finishing a solid second in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. The Irish-bred gelding retains J. Hernandez and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip in a race that is likely to offer a moderate early pace. The “other D’Amato – Ottoman Price (IRE) - has been a bit of a disappointment so far in two local outings and has yet to master the art of changing leads but he continues to impress in the morning and probably is worth giving one more chance to.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-El Diablo Rojo; 6-Brutto.
Backups/savers: 7-Oil Can Knight.
Forecast: This bottom rung maiden $20,000 sprint looks like it belongs at Los Alamitos. El Diabolo has good recent form over the Santa Anita main track and is clearly the one to beat, though his overall record (38 starts, three wins) makes him difficult to trust, even against this lackluster band. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and would be okay at that price, but we have a hunch he’ll go lower. Britto always has liked the local dirt track, having finished first or second in five of seven starts. Plus, he did win his race before last in Orange County, so relatively speaking he’s in good form. Our best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-D’ Oro Dash
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: D’ Oro Dash finished a smart second behind subsequent stakes winner Wine Me Up in his only outing last summer at Del Mar. The Bolt d’Oro colt returns with a series of sharp team drills that should have him fit and ready. The switch to grass isn’t likely to be any issue for this first time Lasix using sophomore, who hails from a barn that has outstanding stats with layoff runners. If he breaks well from the rail, the M. Glatt-trained colt almost certainly will be on the lead and then he can take it from there.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Nothing Like You; 3-Show Card.
Backups/savers: 1-Jane Austen.
Forecast: The two B. Baffert-trained fillies can orchestrate this year’s edition of the Summertime Oaks-G2, a prestigious event for sophomores that only drew four entrants. Nothing Like You pulverized her foes in the recent Santa Anita Oaks-G2 and this is a slightly easier assignment, so top billing certainly will go to her. With stablemate (and noted front runner) Show Card drawn just to her inside in post three, J. Hernandez on the favorite seems likely to employ stalking tactics and allow her barn mate cut out the early fractions before engaging her at the appropriate time. ‘Card will be trying two turns for the first time – she should like it – and won’t give up without a fight. These are the two we’ll be using, but if you’d feel safer tossing in Jane Austen as a backup, feel free to do so.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 8-Dream Princess; 4-Indy’s Star; 3-Madiha.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s a messy starter optional claiming turf miler for fillies and mares that looks on paper to be chaotic, so you probably should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Dream Princess looks as good as any at 4-1 on the morning and arguably deserves a very slight edge on top after finishing second in a similar spot over this course and distance last time out. She retains J. Hernandez and is capable of winning on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. Indy’s Star just outfooted our top pick in the aforementioned race while producing a good enough late kick to score with the help of the race shape. If she can turn in two like, the L. Powell-trained daughter of Honor Code will be quite dangerous once again. Madiha takes a class drop from Fran’s Valentine S. to this $32,000 claimer. She’s not particularly big on winning (three wins and a combined 10 seconds, and thirds) and is a little too one paced to be trusted but we suspect she’ll find a way to clunk up and at least get a part.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:45 PT Grade :C+
Main ticket: 4-Recalcitrant; 3-Big Celebration; 6-Eltonsingstheblues
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: There’s plenty of suspect early speed in here so let’s prefer those that have shown they can finish a bit. RecalcitrantBig Celebration probably will employ patient tactics as well and if she’s ready to fire off the bench – she’s been away since October – the daughter of Mr. Big could be a factor strong threat through the lane in her first start in a claimer. Eltonsingstheblues may be the best of the speed types but will be challenged early, often, and late. We’ll toss her in just in case she can shake loose early.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: 7-Ferrariano; 1-Carver
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Ferrariano was somewhat compromised by a sloppy start but then enjoyed a perfect trip and simply couldn’t seal the deal when tagged on the line in a similar moderate claiming event last month. This shortening to a mile probably is what he wants, so we’ll give him another chance in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 seller. In his first start since December of 2022. Carver made the running before faltering when it mattered last month in a first level allowance turf miler. Maybe he needed the outing, but the fact that his connections are dumping him into a modest claimer indicates they’ve pretty much given up on him. Yet, from a pure pace standpoint and in a race lacking in closers, the J. Sadler-trained ridgeling must be given a look.
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