Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Running Rio; 4-Runnin On Promises; 3-Lee’s Baby Girl
Backups/savers: 7-She’s My Flame.
Forecast: The opener is a five furlong raffle on turf for juvenile fillies. Anything goes. Running Rio didn’t bring much more than a ham sandwich at auction ($12,000) but the daughter of Street Boss displayed good speed without ever being asked in a gate drill May 15 for a barn that always is dangerous (25%, strong ROI) with the first time starter angle. From the rail she should be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead, so in an open fray she may be as good as any. Runnin On Promises> was a distant but willing third in a very fast race in her debut earlier this month and with that bit of experience behind her the J. Bonde-trained daughter of Promises Fulfilled certainly has a right to step forward. Lee’s Baby Girl was a bit of green when showing a tendency to drift out in a gate drill with stablemate What About Q last week but earned a solid clocking (:47.4hg) to finish two lengths in front. She should be able to act with these.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Lansdowne (GB)
Backups/savers: 1-Windribbon.
Forecast: Lansdowne (GB) has changed hands in his last three starts, most recently for $25,000 for trainer S. Knapp, who scored with him a few races back and reunites the mid-level plater with “win rider” D. Herrara. Drawn comfortably outside in this six runner $32,000 sprint, the English-bred gelding has won three of five (with one second) over the local main track with numbers that fit at this level and a pace scenario that projects him to be on or near the lead.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:007 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: R Heisman
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: R Heisman was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar when a distant second in his debut but showed enough talent in a troubled journey from the rail to be privately purchased by trainer P. Miller soon after the race. The son of Far From Over was stuck in traffic down the backstretch, got clear outside and finished eagerly in a fast race while winding up seven lengths clear of the rest in a performance that is more than good enough to graduate today at an extremely short price.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Refocus; 4-Known Idea.
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: It’s hard to say if Refocus is most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter but the way he quickened in a recent state-bred dash in a better than average affair gives hope that he can produce another winning lack kick in his first try around two turns. There should be plenty of pace signed on to compliment his new found style, so if taken back and patiently ridden again the son of Pavel can be dangerous right back. Known Idea , solid on numbers but like our top pick unproven around two turns, has plenty of speed but will have to deal with at least a couple of other front running types in a pace scenario that should test him early. The J. Sadler barn has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle and this son of Goldencents is reunited with “win rider” H. Berrios, so if he can switch off early he should be prominent throughout as the likely favorite and one to beat.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Super Enticing
Backups/savers: 2-Ur in Trouble.
Forecast: Super Enticing returns following a seven month vacation and appears to have trained well enough at San Luis Rey Downs to be fit and ready to graduate in this soft maiden $40,000 claiming dash for fillies and mares. The P. Miller-trained sophomore is a first time Lasix user with numbers from last year that are more than good enough to beat this field, and with top rider J. Hernandez (24% with this barn) taking the call the daughter of Enticed should be a short price in a shallow affair.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-Malibu Coast; 3-Tom and Jazzy.
Backups/savers: 4-National Generaux (IRE).
Forecast: Malibu Coast logically shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends after a series of disappointing runs (off the board in four straight races) when facing considerably tougher rivals. The Malibu Moon gelding has speed figures that are good enough to act at this $30,000 level and though well beaten in his most recent start the M. McCarthy-trained gelding actually equaled his career top number in a hot allowance race that was simply out of his range. The switch to J. Hernandez is significant. Tom and Jazzy was awful when finishing last of six as the favorite in a similar restricted (nw-3) affair earlier this month but absolutely can bounce back in his first start since behind haltered by trainer S. Knapp (19% with this angle) and switching to jockey A. Aguilar, who got plenty of run out of him last year. The son of Tom’s Tribute is a two-time winner over the local lawn with numbers that make him a major player.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Warren’s Showgirl
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast:: Warren’s Showgirl was nosed out in a similar bottom rung maiden $30,000 claimer over this track and distance earlier this month while more than 13 lengths clear of the rest and earning a speed figure that simply towers over her six rivals. With two easy breezes in the interim to tick her over, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride will be an odds-on choice to finally graduate in her ninth career start.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:50 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: Jessebear; 9-Back On Track; 5-Quantum Innergy
Backups/savers: 8-Issa Court; 2-Blonde Bombshell.
Forecast: Jessebear has numbers that fit and a maiden victory over this course and distance earlier this year, so we’ll put the daughter of Misremembered on top in this somewhat shallow first level allowance turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares. She projects to draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and then be able to grind away from the quarter pole home. Back On Track is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but in her first try around two turns the daughter of Prospect Park projects to drop over, get some cover, and then have her chance to kick home when given her cue. Quantum Innergy has some ground to make up in the speed figure department but with only three starts on her resume the daughter of Clubhouse Ride has plenty of room for improvement. She had plenty of help up front when graduating over the local lawn at this one mile trip last time out but with a solid pace to chase once again she should be heard from again close home.
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