NOTE: Mandatory Pick 6 Payout Today in Final 6 Races. Carryover $384,489.
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Burton Way; 8-Habeas; 5-Conquering King
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Upright.
Forecast: Burton Way shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch pattern in his second start off a layoff and should be set to graduate in this moderate maiden $40,000 main track miler. He exits a better than par race for the level and projects to be or near the lead throughout. Habeas went too fast early for his own good in a maiden $50,000 turf event over a mile at Santa Anita and understandably weakened late. He should stick much better today against this softer group if rating tactics are employed. Conquering King shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. His numbers say he’s a legitimate threat at this level.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Tees Touch; 5-Tribal
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Endlessly
Forecast: Tees Touch displayed decent ability in his debut on a “A” circuit track in England (Doncaster) when finishing a good second last month and shows up at Del Mar fresh off the plane seeking ship-and-win money in this mile grass affair for maiden juveniles. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding lands a cozy inside draw and is a standout on paper compared with the known element. Tribal is a first timer that could pose a legitimate threat. The son of Kingman has done some very good work in the morning preparing for his debut and is likely to fire a big shot first crack out of the box. The edge goes to the gelding with experience – Tees Touch – but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cyberking; 7-Baladi; 2-Mister Bold
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Cyberviking looks well-spotted in this $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses. The class drop appears warranted and at this level the consistent and genuine Florida-bred gelding – he’s finished first or second in 12 of 16 career starts – appears to have found a field that will allow him to regain his winning form. He has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. Baladi, another dangerous class dropper, lands the coveted outside post over a main track we know he can handle, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Hector Palma-trained son of Pioneerof the Nile finds this field well within his range. You have to use him at 8-1 on the morning line. Mister Bold can be tossed in as well. He’s won two of three outings over the Del Mar strip and arrives fresh from a strong win in a starter’s race at Los Alamitos. He’ll be doing his best work late.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Slam Diego; 8-Pacific Zip
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Slam Diego makes her first start on the one level class drop for new trainer Peter Miller, who took this filly for $32,000 out of a solid third place finish in a turf miler. She returns to the main track and shortens to seven furlongs, and it wouldn’t be surprising if she reacts favorably under these conditions. The daughter of Cairo Prince has won over this main track in the past, and with a patient ride she should be heard from in the final stages. Pacific Zip lands the good outside post and is guaranteed an ideal second flight, stalking trip for new trainer Kristin Mulhall. Her recent fourth place finish in a tougher spot at Pleasanton wasn’t bad at all, and on pure numbers she matches up reasonably well with our top pick.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-La Vikina; 1-Crimson Rose
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Quiet Secretary.
Forecast: La Vikina can be very effective as the controlling speed but also has shown she can stalk, pounce, and win if the race flow dictates. If Crimson Rose is sent to the front from the rail, ‘Vikina has the option of dropping in using the leader as a prompter. In any case, the Andy Mathis-trained mare should be primed for winning performance in this $25,000 grass miler for fillies and mares. On the other hand, if ‘Rose is left alone, she can take the field a long way and at 12-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable price chance in the rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Cowboys Daughter
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Cowboys Daughter is a Bay Area shipper returning from a six month vacation and is waiver protected in this $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. She shows the blinkers off angle that always catches our eye and a superior will to win, having taken eight of 16 career starts, several of which earned speed figures far superior to what will be required in this soft assignment. She’s been routing most of her career but actually may prefer this sprint distance, so at 5-1 on the morning line (though we suspect will go lower), she offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-California Bay; 3-Talklessworkmore
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Oubabe, 11-Mamba Cool.
Forecast: California Bay graduated in his second career start last month at Santa Anita and looked pretty decent doing so. The son of California Chrome settled off a moderate pace and then took hold when given his cue to win going away while earning a solid speed figure. Better will be needed for a repeat against this tougher, more experience field, but with another forward move the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding could be up to the task at a decent price. Talklessworkmore has so far in his career preferred to run second or third (eight times) rather than win (just twice) but if he can shake loose early as the controlling speed the Summer Front gelding could get brave and take this field a very long way. He’s solid in the speed figure department and could take advantage of a favorable pace flow.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Thermal
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Gate to Paradise; 9-Chatalas
Forecast: Thermal has trained like an exceptional prospect and looks set to graduate at first asking in this stronger than par maiden sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Nyquist has done everything in the morning with speed and power and without ever being asked for her best. The work pattern is steady and healthy and should have her fit and ready for a winning performance, so at 5/2 on the morning line let’s make the John Sadler-trained filly a strong win play and major push in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Count Again
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: There’s not a horse in this year’s Eddie Read S.-G2 that couldn’t win with their very best race, so rather than spread deeply in rolling exotic play let’s just pick one and hope to be right. Count Again hasn’t been out since the spring of 2022 but he has fired fresh in the past and is working like he’s fit and ready for trainer Phil D’Amato, who will saddle four of the nine intended starters. The veteran gelding won the Shoemaker Mile-G1 in his last appearance before being sent to the sidelines, and if he comes back as well as he left the son of Awesome Again can pick up where he left off. If it’s not him, it could be any of the other eight starters so let’s take a stand and make this high class million dollar earner a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Piroli
Backups/savers: 6-Divine Armor.
Forecast: Based on his career top performance when runner-up in the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 in late May, Piroli should easily outclass this second level allowance field. He always can be relied on for a solid effort and in fact has finished first or second in seven of 13 career starts, so against this group the son of Battle of Midway seems the solid choice and probably should go lower than his morning line of 5/2. If there is a concern, it’s his rail post and the possibility that he may become mired down on the deepest part of the track, but if he can get off the fence and have dead aim from the far turn to the wire the Michael McCarthy-trained gelding should be along in time.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Mega Moon; 8-Classically
Backups/savers: 2-Russells Hustle
Forecast: Mega Moon returns to the maiden claiming ranks, removes blinkers, and can win this soft affair with a repeat of his race before last. The lightly raced Frosted gelding projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Classically shows up in a seller for the first time and should improve enough to at least hit the board. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding is a one-paced type but switches to Umberto Rispoli and projects to be prominent throughout.
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