Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Heartland; 6-A Day to Remember; 5-Slider
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The opener is a hot maiden juvenile sprint that predictably features a fast working, highly promising Bob Baffert first timer in Heartland, the 6/5 morning line favorite despite drawing the dreaded rail. The son of Justify, a $575,000 yearling purchase, is a half-brother to champion 2-year-old Classic Empire and has done everything in the morning - View Workout - to indicate that he’s cranked up and ready to show his best stuff right now. A Day to Remember also has been quite impressive in the morning for trainer Mark Glatt - View Workout - and looks extremely live at first asking from his cozy outside draw. Finally, the John Sadler-trained Slider is yet another who has displayed plenty of ability in his a.m. trials - View Workout - and should be included somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Unconquerable Keen; 1-Standing O; 5-Johnny Podres.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Cherubic Factor.
Forecast: Here’s a difficult turf sprint that offers several possibilities. Unconquerable Keen shortens to five furlongs and at this abbreviate sprint trip the Irish-bred gelding projects to enjoy an ideal pace pressing journey and have every chance from the quarter pole home. He continues to train well for Phil D’Amato and will be tough with a repeat of his highly rated score two races back. Our top selection’s stable mate Standing O lands the rail, and if can secure a clear path when rallying from the second flight the veteran gelding will be heard from in the closing stages. Johnny Podres is a deep closer and will need some racing luck but he’s always preferred the Del Mar lawn and could be ready to perk up with a major effort at a nice price.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Havoc; 5-Only One America; 9-Mr. Chivas.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-Helen’s Sun.
Forecast: Havoc has trained like a quick two-year-old for Ryan Hanson and looks like a live item first crack out of the box in this maiden state-bred sprint over five furlongs. He’s listed at 6-1 on the morning line and represents a reasonable gamble at that price based on what we’ve seen - View Workout - posted on xbtv.com. Only One America is another that has caught the eye in the morning and is a “must use” on your ticket. She’s an “off-the-wall” bred filly tackling the boys, a good mover with some ability, and an enticing middle price (5-1) on the morning line. Mr. Chivas has displayed plenty of speed but has proven to be suspect close home in his three races to date. He’ll get plenty of play based on his experience but we’re not entirely sure if he’s trustworthy.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Awesome Taylor; 3-Talkative Gal; 10-Pens Street; Jacodra’s Devil
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Renegade Princess.
Forecast: If you ever are inclined to hit the “all” button in rolling exotic play, this race would qualify. It's a borderline inscrutable main track miler for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares and absolutely no result would surprise us. Awesome Taylor plummets in class, returns to dirt, and projects to enjoy a second flight, stalking trip. First or second in five of 11 career starts, the daughter of Classic Empire has numbers that are better than par for this level. Talkative Gal crushed a $12,500 field at Los Alamitos earlier this month and should be competitive on the one level raise for low percentage connections. She’s never had much luck over the Del Mar main track but might be a tad better type now, especially over a distance of ground. Pens Street is poorly drawn but invades from Gulfstream Park and therefore is eligible for the ship-and-win bonus. Look for her to be running on late. Jacodra’s Devil likely will employ gate-to-wire tactics and if she can shake loose early she could take this field a long way.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Loterie; 3-Angioletta
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Loterie was a promising third of 17 in her debut at The Curragh in May and arrives fresh off the plane to continue her career for trainer Phil D’Amato, who is superb with foreign shippers. She’s had three local breezes to get acclimated, including an easy move earlier this month over the training track at Santa Anita - View Workout - that was visually pleasing. Trainer Doug O’Neill has a Euro-shipper in the race as well that is worth a close look. Angioletta, a solid runner-up over the left-handed course at Nantes in France in her second start, arrives fit and ready and actually earned a better Timeform Rating in that race than Loterie did in hers. It seems logical that both have a decided edge over the locally based runners in this mile affair for juvenile fillies.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Like No Other
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Like No Other arrives from Pleasanton in good form for trainer Andy Mathis and appears well placed on the class drop in this $16,000 seller for restricted (nw-2) fillies and mares. Though the aggressive drop to a notch below her claim price may be suspicious, the purse of this race ($30,000) actually makes it a proper move, and on numbers this is actually where she belongs on this circuit. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Adelie; 6-Exclusive Joni; 1-The Flying Pharoah
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Adelie hasn’t been seen for 11 months but in her first start since being transferred to the Phil D’Amato barn and dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time the Irish-bred filly appears to have found a field she can beat. The work tab leading up to this race appears solid and healthy, and as 4-year-old this class drop is thoroughly justified, even though she had good enough form to hit the board over this course last year in straight maiden company. Exclusive Joni, a Churchill Downs shipper that was claimed by trainer Bob Hess, Jr. for $50,000 last month, arrives seeking ship-and-win money and finished a respectable third in her only prior outing on grass two races back when campaigning in Florida. She’s a dangerous closer and a logical threat. The Flying Pharoah lands the favorable rail and projects to be prominent throughout. This will be her second start off a layoff and we’re expecting the that Tim Yakteen-trained filly will be prominent throughout and have a chance to outrun her 12-1 morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Missed the Cut; 6-Defunded
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Missed the Cut moved way too soon when looming a threat before flattening out in his California debut for trainer John Sadler last month. With the switch to Hector Berrios today, the son of Quality Road surely will receive the patient ride he requires and perform up to his best level in this year’s edition of the San Diego Handicap-G2. Whether or not he’s good enough to outrun the favorite remains to be seen, but at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth the gamble. A series of quick works since raced indicates he is ready to produce a significant forward move. Defunded is the logical favorite and one to beat. Proven over this main track, the son of Dialed In might be most effective at a middle distance, so conditions are ideal for the Bob Baffert-trained gelding to fire another huge shot. ‘Cut will be the better price, of course, so that’s where the bulk of our action will go, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Impact Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 9-Ultimate Hy; 12-Shocking Grey
Forecast: Impact Warrior, yet another dangerous European shipper making her U.S. debut for trainer Phil D’Amato, looked very much like a fit and ready type in a local turf breeze earlier this week - View Workout - and shows rising Timeform Ratings that make her strictly the one to beat in this first level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. She’s a first time Lasix user with a comfortable draw and is a prototype miler based on her Irish form. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line; let’s hope we can get it.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:39 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 11-Dr. Schivel; 4-The Chosen Vron
Backups/savers: 7-Anarchist.
Forecast: This is one of the deepest renewals of the Bing Crosby S.-G1 in recent years. Del Mar specialist Dr. Schivel (three wins from four starts, second in the 2021 BC Sprint-G1) returns to California and is back at his preferred six furlong trip after biting off more than he could chew in the Met Mile behind Cody’s Wish last month. Drawn comfortably outside where the best footing has been so far this season, the Mark Glatt-trained horse was visually very impressive in his comeback score two races back, so if he runs back to that race today he’s certainly capable of winning this race, just as he did two years ago. Win machine The Chosen Vron always is formidable. The Cal-bred gelding, successful in 12 of 16 starts while mostly facing state bred competition, is hickory at any distance or surface and has speed figures that match up quite well with our top pick. He’s drawn a little farther inside than we’d prefer but we still have to use him on the main ticket.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:09 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Watsonville
Backups/savers: 6-Hula Candy; 8-Chay’s Tornado.
Forecast: We have a strong suspicion that Watsonville is going to step forward big time over a distance of ground, and with the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern on his resume we eagerly anticipate his first try around two turns. The son of Jack Milton galloped out strongly in his most recent turf sprint, shows a healthy work pattern since, and has a pedigree that promises improvement as the distances increase. The Mark Glatt barn hits at a powerful 25% with the sprint-to-route angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line there’s plenty of price value to be found in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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