Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Mission Beach; 7-Dagger Ranch
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mission Beach, a $400,000 yearling purchase by Curlin, makes his debut for Bob Baffert following a series of fast recent gate drills designed to have him cranked and ready first crack out of the box. He’s been impressive in each of his gate drills and looks very much like a win early type. His stablemate, Dagger Ranch, another first timer by Curlin, also has displayed plenty of ability and from his cozy outside draw should have every chance to make a favorable early impression. His dam, Indian Blessing, was a rocket ship back in the day. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise not get terribly involved in.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Rakassah
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rakassah doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, though this huge class drop from $80,000 down to $32,000 off a strong third place performance in a downhill dash at Santa Anita is a cause for concern. The Phil D’Amato-trained mare has finished first or second in eight of 16 career starts and has several back speed figures that are better than par for the level, so if she can deliver one of her better efforts – or simply repeat her last outing from almost four months ago – she figures to pose for pictures. It’s all a matter of health and current condition.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Colette’s Joy; 5-Betty’s Song
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Colette’s Joy outran her work tab in her debut at 12-1 when finishing an excellent second in a similar maiden dash for older fillies and mares in early June at Santa Anita. She didn’t get the best of runs but kept to her task in the lane to make it close in a game performance. She returns two months later with a healthy series of recent breezes, so a forward move is quite likely, especially from her comfortable outside draw. The Mark Glatt barn hits at a strong 21% with second timers, so this daughter of Connect seems pretty solid at 2-1 on the morning line. The Bob Baffert-trained first timer Betty’s Song has looked decent in the a.m. and should be competitive in a moderate affair. A couple of recent gate drills over the local main track were accomplished without undue pressure, so at 5/2 on the morning line you have to include her.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Justique
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Doinitthehardway.
Forecast: Justique is perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track and will add Lasix for the first time, so we’re expecting the still-promising daughter of Justify to deliver her best punch in this second level allowance optional claiming miler for fillies and mares. She has looked very sharp in recent drills, so we’re expecting a huge run in her first outing in five months. The form says she’s most effective around one turn and perhaps that’s true. Today we’ll find out for sure.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Chrome to Riches
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Maxville.
Forecast: This maiden state-bred turf miler brings together some familiar faces, none of whom have distinguished themselves in any way, shape, or form. Somebody will win, that’s the only conviction we have. Chrome to Riches has raced just twice, so perhaps he has the most room to improve. The Carla Gaines-trained colt finished a fair fourth against this group in his most recent outing in March, but a series of sharp recent workouts indicates he could easily be a better type this time around. At 5-1 on the morning line from his good inside draw, the son of California Chrome seems as good as any and better than most.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Mimsy; 10-Pretty Rena
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-La Paloma Blanca.
Forecast: Mimsy certainly isn’t any world beater, but she has some amount of ability, at least enough to be competitive in a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares such as this. The Mark Glatt barn has good stats with first time starters, most of which run better than they work, so given the modest competition she will be facing the daughter of Strong Mandate is worth a look at 8-1 on the morning line. Pretty Rena is comfortably drawn outside, has plenty of early speed, and could be tough to catch if she can clear her rivals during the early stages of the abbreviated sprint trip. We haven’t seen her since early June, when she finished second with a career top speed figure, but her recent work pattern looks fairly strong and healthy.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-My Man Bags; 3-Sawasdee
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-I’m Dr. O; 10-Rachel’s Coach.
Forecast: On pure form, My Man Bags is simply better than these. He’s won three of his last four starts, most recently with a career top speed figure, and with almost two months to recover from what had to be hard, taxing effort the son of Daredevil returns to face the same first level allowance state-bred types that he just outrun over the Santa Anita main track. This time, though, he has to do it on grass, a surface that he tried a couple of years ago on two occasions without success. Clearly, he’s a better type now, so we’re hoping the surface switch won’t matter. Sawasdee is actually quicker than ‘Bags (who can stalk and pounce if asked to) and will take them as far as he can in this five furlong dash. He’s another that is questionable on the lawn but may be much better now than when he tried it last year. If he can shake loose early he could prove troublesome at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:41 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Keen to Go; 5-Circle the Moon; 1-Carpe Bellum
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Got Thunder.
Forecast: This is a treacherous (nw-2) $16,000 claimer with the main contenders dropping drastically in class while clearly being culled from their stable. There is simply nothing to trust, so if you’re inclined to play, tread lightly. Keen to Go has numbers that are more good enough to win, and with the huge drop from starter ($50,000) allowance the Jeff Mullins-trained son of Keen Ice is a contender by default. He’ll be doing his best work late. Circle the Moon just broke his maiden at Los Alamitos in gate to wire fashion, and while he beat little at least he is in some semblance of decent form. With just three prior outings, the son of Malibu Moon also has room to improve that most of the others don’t. He gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aguilar, and in a field without much speed he’ll probably try gate to wire tactics again. Carpe Bellum is competitive on numbers after breaking his maiden at the bottom over seven furlongs at Los Alamitos last month. His low percentage connections notwithstanding, the 4-year-old gelding probably is worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): King’s River Knight; 8-Bally’s Charm; 5-Carmelita’s Man
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Kings River Knight is perfect at Del Mar (two-for-two) and is a nose away from winning three straight since joining the John Sadler barn, so the son of Acclamation is a logical top pick and morning line favorite (9/5) in this year’s renewal of the California Dreamin’ Stakes for older state-bred turf specialists. The only concern is that he’s most effective on the lead and may have to deal with committed front runner Jimmy Blue Jeans, who is drawn right alongside. If the two get into a pace duel, Bally’s Charm will have an excellent chance to inherit a stalking position and then have every chance from there (he’s won that way in the past, though he prefers the front end). This is a tactical race that may be decided by trips and early fractions, and it actually could set up nicely for course specialist Carmelita’s Man, who has won three times over the local lawn and is most effective when held up early and produced late. Given the possible pace scenario, he is quite dangerous at 4-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:41 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Adare Manor
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Adare Manor is most effective as the controlling speed, but she won’t have that role today, not with sprinter-stretching-out Elm Drive drawing the rail and almost certainly employing gate-to-wire strategy. ‘Manor can stalk and pounce if necessary and in her present form the daughter of Uncle Mo shouldn’t be compromised by the projected trip. She continues to sizzle in the morning while looking better than ever, but if there is a concern, and a minor one at that, it’s that she finished off the board in her only prior start over the Del Mar main track at odds of 3/5 during her juvenile campaign. She’s a logical rolling exotic single but will offer no wagering value at the odds-on price that she is sure to leave at.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-In Your Face
Backups/savers: 2-Precocious Times; 9-Picture of a Lady
Forecast: In Your Face earned a huge number when graduating over this course and distance almost a year ago but then disappeared. She returns protected in a sign of confidence in this starter’s allowance turf miler and has trained like she’s fit and ready to pick up where she left off. The Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Violence is assured a good stalking trip from her favorable inside draw, retains “win rider” Drayden Van Dyke, and offers excellent wagering value at or near her morning line of 6-1. Let’s make her a win play and main punch in rolling exotic play.
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