Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Del Mar Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Brazen Bull
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Brazen Bull returns off a two month layoff for a new trainer in a bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older horses while landing the preferred outside post position. Strictly on numbers he’s a standout, so at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the son of Munnings should be a rolling exotic single, but at a shorter price than we’d probably care to take.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Mr. Disrespectful; 8-Devil Moon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mr. Disrespectful crushed a state-bred maiden special weight field on dirt earlier this month while earning a career top speed figure that earns him top billing on the one level raise in this five furlong starter allowance turf sprint. The son of Smiling Tiger will be making his first start on the sod, so there’s no guarantee he’ll replicate his last race under these conditions, but from the good inside draw he’ll have every chance to do so. He’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line, an acceptable price on the tote. Devil Moon has speed figures that can win but he simply isn’t one to trust. Beaten as the favorite in a similar affair over this course and distance last time out, the son of Malibu Moon goes from the rail to the outside for a barn that has been ice cold all meeting. Reluctantly, we’ll toss him.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Pequena Tormenta; 2-Slam Diego
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Paquena Tormenta plummets in class seeking her winning level and may have found it in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. She has speed figures that far exceed par for this level and two bullet workouts since raced, so she’s either being advertised for sale by Jeff Mullins or dropping in class to steal a purse. We’ll believe the latter. Slam Diego was an easy winner for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 in late July and was promptly claimed by trainer Dean Pederson in what appeared to be a shrewd purchase. But this drop to the $20,000 level in her first start for new connections may indicate the new connections aren’t thrilled with the merchandise. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics in a race that should be approached with caution.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Mirahmadi; 7-Sense
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Mirahmadi has burned money in both of his career starts but with two sprints under his belt before this stretch out in trip the son of Into Mischief gets one more chance to verify his press clippings. The Bob Baffert-trained colt has recorded three successive bullet drills over the Del Mar main track and remains highly regarded by his connections; however, if he’s going to be a good colt this is the type of race he has to win. Sense represents stranger danger. The Richard Mandella-trained 2-year-old has done some good work in the morning while acting like a colt who can easily handle a distance of ground in his debut. The son of Street Sense from La Canada S.-G2 stakes winning Spellbound looks like a genuinely nice prospect and is a “must include” at 4-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Freedom Lass; 5-Gracelund Gray
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Kitty Kitano.
Forecast: Freedom Lass appears well spotted for a major effort, though she’s always been a bit more interested in finishing second and third (11 times) than winning (four times) in her 26-race career. She has a good stalking style with consistent speed figures and a prior win over this course, so let’s hope that she reproduces her best form in this mile grass affair for second level allowance fillies and mares. Gracelund Gray, an upset winner here on turf last year, has been away since October but has fired fresh in the past and shows a recent work tab that is quite impressive. If ready – and we think she is – the daughter of Goldencents has a strong look at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Colt Fiction; 5-My Man Bags; 6-Positivity
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Tiger Dad.
Forecast: Colt Fiction is fresh from a confidence building win after being dropped into the $32,000 ranks and may prove to be a timely purchase by new trainer Simon Callaghan, who rarely participates in the claiming game. A five time winner in eight career starts over the Del Mar main track, the son of Ministers Wild Cat is raised a notch while retaining Edwin Maldonado and should be capable of scoring again with a repeat of his last performance. He has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level, so at his morning line of 7/2 he looks quite playable. My Man Bags finished last in a recent turf sprint while hating the surface and refusing to extend himself. Back on dirt and dropping to a level at which he can compete, the veteran Daredevil gelding must be given a reasonable chance to bounce back. Positively is solid on numbers with two prior wins over this main strip. He’s a one-paced sort but his best race puts him in the fray.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:04 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Harry’s Onthefly; 1-Uncle Reg
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Quintecents.
Forecast: Harry’s Onthefly arrives from Florida seeking valuable ship-and-win money and charts well in this maiden special weight five furlong turf sprint based on his solid form in three starts at Gulfstream Park. He’s a tad light in the speed figure department and he’ll have to overcome the far outside draw but the son of Khozan should settle in a comfortable second flight, stalking position and have his chance from the quarter pole home. Uncle Reg has been somewhat disappointing in his last pair but both races were stronger than par and today will be his first try on grass. He could easily step forward in a big way from his good rail draw.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:39 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Arham
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Principe Carlo.
Forecast: Arham has been freshened since May and the three month vacation may have done him some good. The Vladimir Cerin-trained horse is a perfect one-for-one over the local lawn, and the lightly raced son of Union Rags has won off layoffs in the past. Effective at any distance but arguably most effective around one turn, he shows a strong recent work tab that should have him cranked up and ready. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Linda’s Gift; 3-Musical Rhapsody
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Shocking Grey.
Forecast: Linda’s Gift returned off a long layoff to finish sixth in a quick five furlong dash earlier this month and with that tightener under her belt the daughter of Arrogate looks dangerous with this stretch out in trip. The barn has solid stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle so at 6-1 on the morning line the Richard Mandella-trained filly offers a good price chance in this entry level allowance middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. Musical Rhapsody ran below expectations when finishing unplaced in a mini marathon turf event last month but based on her European form the Phil D’Amato-trained filly is worth another chance. We’re expecting the Irish-bred 4-year-old to be effective at this trip in a race that promises to have quicker early fractions will can complement her late running style.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:31 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Anarchist
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Anarchist has put together back-to-back excellent races facing tough graded stakes company and deserves to finally win one in this year’s edition of the Pat O’Brien Stakes-G2 over seven furlongs for older horses. Runner-up to Elite Power in the True North Stakes-G2 two runs back and then narrowly missing by a head in the Bing Crosby S.-G1 here last month, the son of Distorted Humor has but 10 races on his resume and continues to improve with experience. The Doug O’Neill-trained colt is fast on numbers and has the ideal stalking style for this extended sprint distance. With two nice breezes to tick him over since his most recent outing, he should be ready to another significant forward move, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a strong play in the straight pool and a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Crypto Man; 3-St Ignacio; 1-Rahm
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Crypto Man ran well in a runner up performance at 20-1 in a similar high priced maiden claimer over the local lawn last month in just his second career start, and if he can produce any type of forward move today the Simon Callaghan-trained gelding can earn his diploma. The barn generally does quite well with this angle, so in an open fray he seems as good as any. St Ignacio is a fit on figures and projects to settle into a second flight position and have dead aim from there. Rahm shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, lands the good rail, and is likely to be close up throughout, perhaps even on the lead in a race that should have soft early fractions. The Peter Miller-trained gelding is intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line.
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