Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Del Mar Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Dawn At Last; 2-Dove in Charge
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Fried Asparagus is comfortably drawn outside and projects to enjoy an ideal journey somewhere in mid-pack behind quick early splits. She’s always been a one-paced grinder but based on the likely pace flow she should be within range and ready to pounce when the field straightens for home. With a prior win over the local main track, the daughter of Tizbud should have no excuses while facing the softest field in her career. Dawn At Last bit off more than she could chew when flashing speed before fading in a much tougher starter’s allowance sprint at Pleasanton last month but is realistically spotted today. She has only one way to go; on the lead for as far as she can take them. Dove in Charge arrives from Gulfstream Park seeking valuable ship-and-win money and shows a winning race three back that charts well with these. She’s likely to draft into a second flight, stalking position and be well placed to produce a late bid if the front runners do each other in.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Hula Candy; 6-Smooth Salute; 5-Carribean King
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Seal Team
Forecast: Hula Candy isn’t the handiest of rides, but he probably has more natural talent than he's allowed himself to show during the first three races of his career. The son of Twirling Candy wound up a close fifth behind Watsonville is a common race for many of these, and with the switch to Antonio Fresu the John Shirreffs-trained 5-year-old may be able to produce a winning late kick, especially at this longer mile and one-eighth distance. Smooth Salute hit the front but was worn down late when a close third in the same race our top pick exits, and with just a slight bit of improvement today the son of Midnight Lute may earn his diploma. The pace scenario looks modest at best, so we’re expecting the Michael McCarthy-trained sophomore to enjoy a stalking, trouble-free trip. Carribean King was only beaten a length and one half for all the money in that same race and is another with plenty of room to improve. The Peter Eurton-trained colt switches to top rider Juan Hernandez and should be forwardly placed throughout.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Established; 3-Smuggler’s Run
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Established looks pretty solid in this $25,000 claiming sprint over six and one-half furlongs based on his recent good form and his affection for the Del Mar main track. The Tim Yakteen-trained horse fired a winning shot but was not quite good enough to handle class dropper Colt Fiction in a $32,000 seller last month but at this level the son of Constitution should be able to take care of business. Smuggler’s Run, first off the claim for Peter Miller, is re-equipped with blinkers, picks up Juan Hernandez, and has back form that charts well with these. He’s likely to be heard from late.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Ennereilly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ennereilly ran lights out when narrowly missing in her debut in Ireland in mid-June, rallying from far back to make it close and then galloping out far in front of the 14-runner field. She arrives fit and ready for trainer Phil D’Amato and has had four local breezes to get her acclimated. With top turf rider Umberto Rispoli taking the mount, this promising juvenile filly should handle this maiden assignment while offering excellent value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-R Girl’s Werth It; 6-Mango Moon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Sugar Sugar.
Forecast: R Girl’s Werth It is fastest on figs in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and this class drop to her lowest level ever should make the winning difference for the Mike Puype stable. The daughter of Uncaptured ran well to be second in her only prior outing over conventional dirt, so while she’s been primarily a turf performer in her 10 race career the switch to the main track shouldn’t be an issue. Mango Moon won her debut in good style at Santa Anita in June when facing soft maiden $50,000 state-bred foes and then was protected in a starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos three weeks later. That level was too tough, so this class drop is warranted, and with repeat of her maiden score the Dean Pederson-trained daughter of Straight Fire should be highly competitive.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Lovesick Blues; 1-Hit the Road
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 11-Sarwar.
Forecast: Lovesick Blues ran quite well when second in the Bertrando Stakes at Los Alamitos in late June and today returns to grass, drops into the allowance ranks, and adds blinkers, so we’re expecting the veteran son of Grazen to return to winning form. The Steve Miyadi-trained gelding has good tactical speed and should have every chance from a second flight, stalking position. Additionally, he’s won over the local lawn in the past and retains his “win rider” Ramon Vasquez, so there is much to like at 6-1 on the morning line. Ex-classer Hit the Road, winless since his victory in the 2021 Kilroe Mile-G1, has been started and stopped on several times during the past two years with issues, but this will be his second start of the meeting and the Dan Blacker-trained son of More Than Ready is likely to produce a forward move. He’s guaranteed a good trip from his rail draw, so with good racing luck from the quarter pole home he should have a serious say in the matter.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Flynn’s Chance; 3-Hope Road; 10-Arctic Breeze
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Tamara; 5-Timely Arrival.
Forecast: Flynn’s Chance has done some excellent morning work while preparing for her debut and this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro looks extremely live in this maiden extended sprint for juvenile fillies. A $675,000 Keeneland yearling purchase, she is a full sister to La Canada S.-G3 winner Moonlight D’Oro and looks the part of a quality prospect for trainer Richard Mandella. Hope Road closed a big gap in her debut to be a dead-heat second in her debut opening weekend and should greatly enjoy this six and one-half furlong trip. The daughter of Quality Road has plenty of size and scope and strikes us as the type of filly that will improve dramatically with distance and maturity. Arctic Breeze, a $375,000 OBS April sale daughter of Arrogate, has put together a string of promising drills both at San Luis Rey Downs and Del Mar for trainer Peter Miller and deserves consideration at 8-1.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Anisette
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Anisette has been dominant in a pair of highly impressive wins since arriving from England, first against older allowance competition in her U.S. debut at Santa Anita in May and then most recently in the San Clemente S.-G2, the prep for this year’s Del Mar Oaks-G1. Both of those races were at a mile; today’s trip is nine furlongs, but the way the Leonard Powell-trained filly has accelerated in her first two local outings strongly indicates that the added distance should only help. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line but we’d have to think she’ll go considerably lower than that.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:15 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Man On the Moon; 7-Universal Payday; 9-Granada Flavor
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Big Buzz.
Forecast: This $12,500 main track miler looks wide open and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Man On the Moon goes to a low profile outfit following an $8,000 claim in which the son of Distorted Humor easily handled his rivals with an ideal stalking trip. If he can turn in two alike for his new connections, he should be highly competitive right back. Universal Payday makes his first start since being claimed by a cold outfit for $16,000 and returns on the one level class drop despite finishing a strong second with a good speed in his most recent outing. He’s just 2-for-18 in the past couple of years, so he’s probably not one to trust, but based on pure form he’s a fit with these and could easily regain his winning form. Granada Flavor drops to a realistic level and can improve his recent outings. The outside draw is no help but the Steve Knapp-trained gelding is a fit on figures and could produce a dangerous late kick if taken back and allowed to make one run from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Tio Magico; 5-Baj; 6-El Potente
Backups/savers: 7-Act Three.
Forecast: Tio Magico ran a winning race when second with a strong figure in a similar first level allowance optional claimer here last month and gets an extra bit of distance to work with while retaining top grass rider Umberto Rispoli. The son of Uncle Mo hasn’t won in two years but the drought could end today with a clean break that will make for a forwardly placed journey. Baj, a close fourth in the same race our top pick exits, will be making his third start off a long layoff, so a forward move can be expected. Like our top pick, he’s most effective when not given too much to do. El Potente won a starter’s allowance race in gate to wire fashion at Santa Anita in April and makes his first start since while facing tougher foes. The son of Temple City is fast on figures and is a major player off the bench while seeking his fourth straight score.
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