Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Kissed by Fire
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none. 6-Make It Snow.
Forecast: Kissed by Fire may be a hard one to trust after failing to deliver the goods as the favorite in each of her last two starts, most recently at even money in a similar maiden sprint over this course and distance last month. In that race, the Peter Eurton-trained filly was under pressure through quick splits before being tagged close home in a race that was judged to be about par for the level. Today’s event contains less projected early speed, so the daughter of Friesan Fire shouldn’t have to go nearly as fast during the opening quarter and half, which will allow a much better chance of wiring the field. That said, she’s listed at 4/5 on the morning line and there’s really not a whole lot we can do with her at that price.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Magazine 7-Sweet Hello; 6-Modera
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Hot Rod Mama.
Forecast: Here’s a soft restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares that probably should be treated with caution. Magazine plummets in class and may have found her friends. She was an easy winner at Pleasanton in maiden special weight company two races back and a repeat of that race today makes her the one to beat. The morning line favorite at 2-1 is Sweet Hello, claimed for $32,000 in late May out of a last place finish (beaten 28 lengths) and today showing up for half that amount after nearly three months on the sidelines. A repeat of her 17 length maiden claiming win might be good enough, but who knows what her current condition is? Modera looks a bit intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line. She is stretching out for the first time and has a steady, one-paced style in her sprints that could work around two turns. She comes from a low profile, low percentage outfit but is competitive based strictly on numbers.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-She’s Resilient; 6-Primrose Ridge
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-Court Snort.
Forecast: She’s Resilient moves up a notch following a $40,000 claim by Steve Knapp last month and moves to turf for the first time in this abbreviated sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies. She’s the fastest in the field based on speed figures, and because she’s a perfect two-for-two over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields there is a reasonable expectation that she won’t have any issue with the change in surface. Primrose Ridge is an intriguing invader from Gulfstream Park seeking valuable ship-and-win bonus purse money. Her form last year overseas wasn’t bad, and she earned a competitive speed figure when unplaced chasing much tougher stakes foes in her U.S. debut last March. She’s also a first time Lasix user for new trainer Simon Callaghan, and is likely to make an impression from the head of the lane to the wire.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Misty Muppet
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Beau Soleil.
Forecast: A little will go a long way in this bottom-rung maiden $32,000 claimer for juvenile fillies. Misty Muppet drops dramatically in class after finishing fifth of six in an infinitely stronger straight maiden race at Los Alamitos last month in a race won by Benedetta, who returned to run second in Grade-2 stakes last weekend. Even in defeat, the daughter of Tonalist earned a speed figure that almost certainly would beat this field, so with the switch to leading rider Juan Hernandez the Michael McCarthy-trained filly looks set to graduate. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and will get the bulk of the play in the rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Paleo’s Princess; 1-Pegs A. K. Girl
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Paleo’s Princess stretches out for the first time and there’s no reason why she won’t handle the trip. She projects to be or near the lead throughout based on her sprint form and based on numbers she’s good enough to beat this starter’s allowance group of fillies and mares. There’s some wagering value at her morning line of 5-1 if you can get it. Pegs A. K. Girl exits a tougher race and lands the good rail, so front running tactics could be very effective if employed. On the other hand, she’s won from off the pace as well, so Hector Berrios could take back, get some cover, and then produce her late.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Bad Sneakers; 2-Will Be
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Bey Bey Ray.
Forecast: Bad Sneakers displayed promise as a 3-year-old in a pair of starts last year before being stopped on. He returns for trainer Mark Glatt (solid stats with layoff runners) with workouts that strongly indicate that he’s a better type this time around. The son of Gun Runner was given a solid foundation at San Luis Rey Downs before arriving at the main stable and shows two local drills, including a very sharp five furlong gate drill (:59 2/5hg) last month that was the eighth fastest of 101 without ever being let run. With top rider Juan Hernandez taking the call, this newly turned gelding looks like the one to beat. Will Be earned a strong speed figure when a solid runner-up in his debut at Los Alamitos in late June. He’s breezed quite well in the interim, so we’re expecting the Phil D’Amato-trained son of Will Take Charge to prove to be the most dangerous rival of our top pick.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Helladic; 7-Rexford
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Daniel’s Magic.
Forecast: Helladic may be too quick for these. The Kantharos gelding most likely will clear the field from his outside draw in this five furlong dash, and if he can get away with a moderate opening quarter he could forget to stop. Rexford is the most dangerous of the closers. First or second in three of his four previous outings over the local lawn, the Phil D'Amato-trained gelding just finished a head in front of our top pick last time out when flying home to be second, and with some help up front may tag the leaders close home.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Burton Way; 7-Bendettijoe; 10-Central Dispatch
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Burton Way appears to have found a good spot to graduate in this maiden $62,500 extended sprint for older horses. He’s a first-off-the-claim play for Robertino Diodoro (winless in four starts at the meeting but 21% with this angle), adds blinkers, and sports the route-to-sprint angle that is especially effective over this main track. He has numbers that can win and should get a patient ride from Ramon Vasquez. Bendettijoe moves up from the maiden $20,000 level in a sign of confidence by trainer Vladimir Cerin after finishing an excellent second (beaten a head) in just his second career start last month. The barn’s “go-to” rider Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount and should have this Tapit gelding doing his best work from the quarter pole home. Central Dispatch drops into a seller for the first time and seems certain to improve at this level. The son of Arrogate has plenty of zip and against this group could stick around for a long time.
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