Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Saratoga Race 1: Post: 11:40 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Munnings Express
Backups: 5-Geopoiitics; 4-Sassy Shenanigans
Forecast: Munnings Express improved her Beyer speed figure by 23 points in her second career start, a facile state-bred maiden win at Aqueduct last month., She returns in three weeks seeking to build on that performance in this first level allowance sprint and based on numbers is simply faster than these. Listed at 5/2 on the morning line, the L. Rice-trained filly probably will leave at a bit lower than that.
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Saratoga Race 2: Post: 12:16 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Numbered/1a-Endorse
Backups: 6-Surprise; 5-All Night Revival.
Forecast: Trainer Todd Pletcher has a couple of live items in this extended sprint for older fillies and mares and the same owner entry will race coupled in the wagering. Numbered never found her proper footing when well-backed in her debut over a wet surface she seemed to struggle over but stayed on with interest to be third (beaten four lengths) in a promising run last month. A long-striding filly begging for more ground, she is highly likely to improve off that effort for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with second timers. Additionally, she gets an extra furlong to work with today while Johnny V. stays aboard and blinkers are added. Stable mate Endorse, a first timer by Curlin, hasn’t done anything fancy in the morning but her work tab should have her plenty fit, so we suspect she’ll do her best work from off the pace.
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Saratoga Race 3: Post: 12:52 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Works for Me; 8-Final Verdict.
Backups: 5-Urban Legend; 2-Antares; 7-Refuel
Forecast: Works for Me and Final Verdict are tough to separate – they finished noses apart when second and third respectively in a similar turf sprint at Aqueduct last month – and both should fire good shots in this abbreviated dash for second level allowance older horses. The former likes to settle early and accelerate late and with good racing luck and some help up front should be heard from close home. ‘Verdict, a prior winner over the local lawn, has more tactical speed than his chief rival and projects to be prominent throughout.
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Saratoga Race 4: Post: 1:29 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Vehemente
Backups: 2-Embraceable Gal; 5-Army Gal.
Forecast: Vehemente has speed figures that continue to rise with each outing and while she’s tackling tougher on the mandatory raise while seeking her third straight score the daughter of Vekoma looks well-spotted to extend her seek. She employs an ideal second flight, stalking style for this extended sprint distance and usually does her best work in the final furlong. She might improve even more if she learns how to change leads.
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Saratoga Race 5: Post: 2:04 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Strategic Focus; 2-Malarchuk
Backups: 5-Waitlist; 7-Dreamlike.
Forecast: Strategic Focus earned a giant 90 Beyer speed figure in his one turn mile debut victory at Aqueduct in April despite taking the overland route and being ridden like they were merely giving him a race. Returning with a proper amount of rest to tackle first level allowance foes while stretching out to nine furlongs, the son of Gun Runner looks like a real prospect, but trainer C. Brown will wisely take the conditions as they come up. His uncoupled C. Brown-trained stable mate Malarchuk has burned money in each of his last three starts, most recently going down by a neck at 3/5 at this level over a sloppy track last month at the Big A (had every chance but couldn’t get by). Blinkers are added and why not; they might as well try something new.
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Saratoga Race 6: Post: 2:40 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Ways and Means (pictured).
Backups: 1-Irish Maxima.
Forecast: Ways and Means returns to her favorite track (three wins in four starts including a Grade-1) and won’t have Kopion to worry about today in this year’s renewal of the Bed O’ Roses S.-G2 for older fillies and mares. She has earned triple digit Beyer speed figures in three of her last five starts and on resume simply outclasses this field at a short price.
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Saratoga Race 7: Post: 3:16 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Mystifying; 4-Royally Rate.
Backups: 7-Louise Proctor; 2-Hope Mission
Forecast: Mystifying earned a big figure when a somewhat unlucky second in her recent comeback at Keeneland and if she produces a similar effort today the daughter of Curlin should regain her winning form. She’s drawn nicely inside and project to draft into an ideal pace stalking/prompting position and have every chance from there. Royally Rate graduated gamely in her debut at Gulfstream Park in mid-April but is facing much tougher today. She may be a decent type but has considerable ground to make up on her main rival in the speed figure department.
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Saratoga Race 8: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Asbury Park-GB
Backups: 10-Reteko; 6-Tom Collins.
Forecast: Asbury Park-GB had an educational run last August over the local lawn and wound up a close fifth as the favorite after finding his best stride too late without being knocked about. The English-bred colt returns for C. Brown with a series of steady works that should have him plenty fit, attracts F. Prat, and remains well regarded. If he’s truly a decent sort – we think he is - he should be able to handle this older maiden field.
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Saratoga Race 9: Post: 4:28 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Raging Sea; 7-Randomized.
Backups:
Forecast: Raging Sea returned to winning form in her seasonal debut in the La Troienne S.-G1 at Churchill Downs but the speed figure was quite average and isn’t likely to be good enough to win again in today’s Ogden Phipps S.-G1. The good news is that this high class daughter of Curlin is a three time winner over the Saratoga main track and clearly her best race makes her tough to beat. Randomized, beaten less than a length by our top pick in Kentucky, also has won three races over the local main track including last year’s renewal of the Phipps. She’s most effective as the controlling speed and front running tactics seems likely despite her outside draw.
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Saratoga Race 10: Post: 5:08 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Flatten the Curve (Fr); 3-Limited Liability; 5-Anglophile,
Backups: 6-The Ginger Wizard; 8-Grtan Sonata.
Forecast: The German invader Flatten the Curve (Fr) has won his last three but probably was not beating much in doing so. What we do know is that he’ll stay all day and that’s the name of the game in these two mile affairs. Limited Liability hits hard in these marathons but if there’s one concern is that he tends to finish second or third (11 times) rather than win (four times). He’ll fire his usual shot and if it’s good enough, he’ll win, and if it isn’t, he won’t. Anglophile, like our top pick, has been more of a nibbler than a winner but is worth tossing in somewhere.
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Saratoga Race 11: Post: 5:46 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Good Cheer; 4-Shred the Gnar.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Good Cheer has never impressed the Beyer boys but it’s hard to find fault with a perfect seven-for-seven. There’s no reason to expect anything less than her best today. Shred the Gnar actually is a bit faster than the favorite purely on speed figures, but she’s never won anything better than a first level allowance race and she’s facing other speed types that will challenge her early. She might be the goods; today we’ll find out.
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Saratoga Race 12: Post: 6:25 ET Grade: A-
Min Ticket: 8-She Feels Pretty
Backups: none.
Forecast: She Feels Pretty has been untouchable in her last three wins since adding blinkers, all against top class company. She’s 3/5 on the morning line and on pure form looks every bit of that or even shorter. We’ll make her a rolling exotic single but otherwise watch and admire.
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Saratoga Race 13: Post: 7:04 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 8-Excellent Truth.
Backups: 9-Chiusya (GB).
Forecast: Excellent Truth (Ire) was a tad unlucky when forced to alter course in mid-stretch and then just failing to catch Choisya (GB) close home in the Jenny Wiley S.-G1 at Keeneland in her U.S. debut last month, but with better luck today the Irish-bred filly can make amends. She was a high class performer overseas and will be at that same level on this side of the pond.
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Saratoga Race 14: Post: 7:43 ET Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Keepinitreal; 12-Counter Move.
Backups: 6-Hit the Post.
Forecast: Keepinbitreal, in the frame in both of his juvenile outings last fall, shows up as a first-time Lasix user in this extended sprint for state-bred maidens and if he returns as well as he left the son of City of Light should be ready to graduate. The C. Brown barn is 23% with layoff runners so we expect this colt to be fit and ready. Counter Move is plenty quick and will take them as far as he can. The son of Spun to Run shortens up a furlong and may stick better, but in three starts so far he’s never really displayed any intention of digging down deep under pressure close home.
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