NOTE: $60,770 Pick 6 Carryover Begins in Race 4
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Dr Ruben M; 5-Pavel’s Etoile.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Dr Ruben M is a first timer with a series of nice drills on her resume and looks very well-meant in this five turf dash for juveniles. The son of Vino Rosso is a smooth athlete with an easy way of traveling and has shown enough speed to be effective at this abbreviated trip despite his pedigree suggesting he should be more effective at longer trips. Interestingly, at 5/2, he’s not the morning line favorite; that honor goes to Pavel’s Etoile, (2-1), who likely was best in her debut facing fillies last month when she broke slowly, rallied with interest, but simply ran out of room when missing by a half-length as the public choice. She gets an extra half furlong to work with and has the pedigree to enjoy turf.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Ocasek
Backups/savers: 1-Thunder Ball; 4-This Is a Joke.
Forecast: Ocasek makes his first start since last summer at Saratoga for new trainer K. Mulhall in his first start in a maiden claimer and his first as a gelding. Well-backed on the tote in each of three Eastern races, he was disappointing in his final two starts against maiden special weight company when conditioned by C. Brown after initially impressing when second in his debut in a fast, highly rated race. He’s trained like he’s fit and ready and projects as the controlling speed in a field with very little of it, so we anticipate he takes control early and then says “Bye Bye Love” to his five rivals.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-Cane Creek Road; 2-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: 7-Proof He Rides
Forecast: Here’s an evenly matched group of starter allowance turf sprinters, and no result would surprise. Use as many as you can afford; small ticket players can concentrate on the three listed above. Cane Creek Road is a tough-as nails, genuine and consistent gelding who has finished first or second in five of 10 starts over the local lawn. He employs a good stalking style, and in a race that projects to have an easy early pace, the son of Bayern should be just where he wants to be every step of the way. Give Me the Lute has solid numbers and will to win (10-for-33 lifetime). His best effort will make him very tough.
____________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Luther Pass; 5-Citadino
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Luther Pass has hit the board in four of five career starts and is overdue to graduate in this bottom rung maiden claiming main track miler for older horses. He had no excuse in a similar affair last month, but this looks like an easier group, one that he should be able to handle from a stalking spot. Citadino removes blinkers (like that angle) after finishing a distant third at odds-on in the same race out top pick exits. Maybe he’ll improve for new trainer J. Periban following a $20,000 claim and with a clean start that could allow him to set the pace and perhaps get brave.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Iscereamuscream; 5-Rascality
Backups/savers: 6-Soho
Forecast: This is stakes-quality first level allowance turf sprint for sophomore fillies, and it will take a good one to win it. Iscreamuscream won her debut stylishly last fall over this course and distance and a strong number but then disappeared. She returns for P. D’Amato (strong stats with layoff runners) with a series of excellent breezing-type drills that should have her fit and ready. The daughter of Twirling Candy is a first time Lasix user and should be capable of coping with any type of race shape. Rascality finished a sharp runner-up in the Senorita Stakes over a mile last month and returns to distance of her impressive maiden score two runs back. She’s a solid fit on speed figures and projects to draft into a good pressing/stalking position and have dead aim and every chance from there.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: Nooni; Lee’s Baby Girl
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Nooni brought $1.8 million at the OBS March sale after a warp speed workout of :20 1/5 during the preview session over the trampoline-styled all weather strip and is the first B. Baffert-trained juvenile filly to make it to the post in this five furlong dash in which listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite. We’ve noticed her tendency to lean out a bit on the turn, but It may not matter. Lee’s Baby Girl was well-meant in her debut on grass last month and displayed ability when a solid runner-up in a fairly fast grass event. If she can duplicate that race on dirt, she’ll be competitive right back at the very least.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Yellow Sun Dress; 8-Head for Om
Backups/savers: 1-Pink Ace.
Forecast: Yellow Sun Dress seeks her third straight score over the local lawn in this starter allowance sprint for fillies and mares, and on pure numbers she looks capable of extending the streak. The M. Glatt-trained daughter of Karakontie has an ideal stalk, pounce, and go style that is effective regardless of pace flow, and with a nice, easy breeze since raced to tick her over she should fire another winning shot. Headed for Om is virtually identical to our top pick in the speed figure department and is another that prefers to settle behind the leaders and then blast home. She’s the one our top pick must worry about the most.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:42PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Bessie Coleman
Backups/savers: 3-Willow Cove; 2-Betty Pack
Forecast: Bessie Coleman completely blew the break in her debut, spotting the field 10 lengths and perhaps even more, then produced a miraculous rally to finish second, beaten less than a length, in a similar state-bred abbreviated dash for older state-bred fillies and mares. If she leave her field today, logic says she should graduate today, though you never can be sure what you’re going to get in a horse’s second start. Worth noting (and perhaps be concerned about) is the late scratch on May 29 and no works for eight days after that, though she did look fine (just galloping through the stretch) in a five furlong 1:05 flat move that was not much more than a two minute gallop.
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 8-Badda Bing (Fr); 7-The Rabbi
Backups/savers: 2-El Rey Rey; 10-Moonlight Sonata; 3-All That Glory.
Forecast: Badda Bing (Fr) was visually quite impressive in his debut win in Ireland in February, after which he was purchased privately and imported in what prove to be a good acquisition. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore quickened from off the pace to win with something left, so if he runs back to that performance in his new surroundings, the French-bred should be capable of being quite competitive. The race projects to have very quick early fractions and thus complimenting his late running style. The Rabbi was 41-1 in his debut sprinting over the local lawn but shouldn’t have been. The son of Hard Spun settled far off the pace and then uncorked a powerful late bit to win going away like a colt with a future. It’s possible he’ll eventually prove to be just a late-running sprinter, but maybe not. One things for sure, he’ll have all the help he needs up front.
.svg){kind=logo}
