Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Orange Thunder; 4-Lady Mendelssohn
Backups: 2-Sasafran.
Forecast: Orange Thunder stretches out again and based on the company she’s been chasing appears to have found a much easier spot, one that should allow her to earn her diploma. Her numbers are considerably lower than par for the level but so is everybody else’s. The daughter of Clubhouse Ride projects to settle in the second flight and then have her chance to produce a winning kick from the quarter pole to the wire. Lady Mendelssohn was well backed in her sprint debut before subsequent stakes winner Take Another Card and there is nothing even remotely that good in here. Though a non-threatening seventh in that race, the C. Gaines-trained filly ran a bit better than the line will show and shows the blinkers off, Lasix-on angles that often produces a significant forward move. She may have upside that most of the others don’t.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Rosie Tinkerbell; 7-Autism Inspiration; 6-Care for Autism.
Backups: none.
Forecast: This abbreviated dash for $12,500 Northern California-based sophomore fillies has three recent maiden claiming winners in it and seems fairly competitive for the level. Rosie Tinkerbell improved her Beyer speed figure by 15 points when crushing soft rivals by five lengths in early November and returns in what essentially is a nw-2 affair (though not written as such) that could allow her to once again could inherit the roll as the controlling speed. Give that type of trip, there should be no reason she can’t come right back and win again. Two nice recent workouts up north in the interim should have her on edge. Autism Inspiration is drawn nicely outside and fits on numbers, though we’d prefer her to display more gate speed than she’s been showing. With some help up front, the daughter of Dads Caps should be heard from late. Care for Autism has a number two runs back that puts her squarely in the hunt. She was pitched too high last time and faded after stalking the pace but against this group she’s likely to stick around a lot longer.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Majestic Palisades; 5-Excel Calculator; 7-Malibu Rocks.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Majestic Palisades was 13 lengths clear of the rest when running a winning race at about this level at Los Alamitos in December in his first try around two turns. He’s strong in the speed figure department and a repeat of that trace, or even the two before that in maiden special weight state bred company, should be good enough against this bunch. Excel Calculator is a 13-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, especially after finishing fourth of six as the 6/5 favorite last time out. He does have several back numbers that would handle this field easily but he’s also a one-paced grinder who tends to flatten out close home. One of these days he may find a field he can beat. Malibu Rocks shows up in a seller for the first time and removes blinkers, two of our favorite angles. He also returns to dirt, arguably is preferred surface, and recent sharp workouts indicate improvement is possible.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5-Run Baba Run; 2-Majestic Cotton.
Backups: 7-Candy’s Wildcat.
Forecast: Here’s a tough race for Northern California-based bottom rung ($5,000) restricted (nw-2) sellers. We’ll got three deep in our rolling exotics and hope that’s enough while otherwise passing the race. Run Baba Run takes a class drop and has produced a forward move on speed figures in each of his four career starts, so on paper looks pretty solid for a high percentage outfit. On the other hand, he lacks tactical speed, missed at 70 cents on the dollar in his last start without mishap, and will be ridden by his fifth different jockey in five starts. Majestic Cotton also has numbers that fit but is a one-paced grinder who needs to be in the fray from the start to have any kind of real chance. Against this group, he should be close enough early to be a factor throughout. Tread lightly here.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Big Whoosh; Maria Tallchief; 7-Guiltyofhavingfun.
Backups: 5-How About Pavel.
Forecast: We’d prefer the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle rather than just one, but Big Whoosh is bred to run long (Mr. Big) and should step forward in just her second career start after a fairly promising debut effort going short in this state bred maiden sophomore fillies grass miler. She was allowed to settle to the top of the lane before taking hold and finishing with purpose to wind up fifth before galloping out in front in her debut last month and second timers from the L. Powell barn usually improve. Maria Tallchief is the likely choice and one to beat. With two tighteners under her belt and a significant forward move on speed figures between her first two race, the daughter of Om fits the bill and projects to folder over into an ideal stalking position with dead aim and every chance. The likely pacesetter – also going long after a pair of decent sprint outings – is Guiltyofhavingfun, who was more than four lengths clear of the rest when second at Del Mar with a speed figure that is tops in the field. On pure form, she’s as good as her two chief rivals and maybe even better.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: Spotted Haze
Backups: none.
Forecast: Spotted Haze, a useful sort of Calbred 3-year-old filly based on we’ve seen on video in her morning trials, could not have handpicked an easier spot in this maiden $50,000 sprint. Nothing in this race has shown any kind of winning ability so she’ll be a heavy favorite pretty much by default. Late last month she breezed from the gate in company with stablemate Shapoval, more than held her own, and then was flattered with that colt finished a promising third in his debut facing straight maiden company last week in a race he might have won with a better break. Drawn ideally outside, the daughter of Stanford can pop and go or stalk and pounce and then go on with it as a short price rolling exotic single for a barn that has superb recent stats with the first time starter angle.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Queen Maxima; 5-Normandy Queen
Backups: 1-Shuangxi (Ire)
Forecast: Queen Maxima is a genuine, consistent, and improving filly moving up a notch on the class rung after three successive sharp turf sprints, most recently when rallying late in a solid win over the flat grass track late last month. She tries the Hill again today and arguably ran a career best race when second to high class Toupie in the Unzip Me Stakes over this course and distance during the fall meeting. She employs a second flight, stalking style and is therefore ideally suited for this slalom event. Chief rival Normandy Queen is unproven on grass and needs a significant amount of improvement in the speed figure department to worry our top pick. However, a bullet recent gate workout for her high percentage connections provides strong evidence that she’s headed in the right direction.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:03 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Nene Diamond; 5-Big Pop
Backups: none.
Forecast: This main track first level allowance sprint for fillies and mares basically boils down to the two listed above and they’re hard to separate. Nene Diamond would appear to be the quicker of the two and most likely won’t have to deal with the same type of pace pressure that did her in when they met in an extended dash at this level last month. The daughter of Stanford paid the price late but should stick better at this shorter trip in a field of just five runners. A bullet four furlong breeze over the training track (:46.3h) since raced in another positive factor. Big Pop, third in that race while more than four clear of ‘Diamond, is drawn sweetly outside and seems certain to enjoy a pristine pace stalking trip. Also, this will be just her third career start, so there’s more room for improvement.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:33 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Oscar Joy; 3-Handsome Ticket; 2-Schwarzmeir
Backups: 6-Bolt Supremacy.
Forecast: Oscar Joy drops into a starter allowance/$50,000 claimer for the first time and appears to have found his proper level based on speed figures. A prototype late running sprinter, he should receive the patient ride he needs with the switch to F. Alvarado, and in a race that appears to have sufficient early speed to compliment his style we’ll go with the P. Miller-trained gelding in what projects to be a cavalry charge. Handsome Ticket is a “must use” as well. A strong runner-up in his last two starts, both at this level last spring, he returns for the M. Glatt barn (smart stats with layoff runners), has trained like he’s fit and ready, and should appreciate this shorter trip. He’s likely to be on or near the lead throughout. Schwarzmeir has dirt numbers that fit, so if he can transfer his main track races to grass he’ll be right there.
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