Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 11:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Shapoval; 7-Lord Dunmore.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Lord Dunmore looks logical on paper in a weak race for maiden special weight sophomore grass sprinters. However, his numbers are far below par for the level, making him vulnerable to a first timer that might be better than the workout times indicate. Falling into that category is the J. Mullins-trained Shapoval, a gelding bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree and displaying sneaky ability on video in dirt drills leading up to this race. This barn’s first timers often run better they breeze, and in a race begging to be won by a newcomer this son of Vronsky fits the bill. ‘Dunmore is clearly the best of those that have raced and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play but his price on the tote probably will be lower than it should be.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 11:58 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8-P Twentytwo; 4-Shake the Dust.
Backups: none.
Forecast: P Twentytwo earned speed figures in his first two races up north that would bury this modest maiden $12,500 claiming field written for Pleasanton-based California-bred sophomores, but he then turned in a clunker as the favorite, so he’s really not one to trust. Perhaps the addition of Lasix will help. In a race in which he’ll be favorite by default, the S. Miyadi-trained son of Grazen could win or run nowhere. Shake the Dust flashed improvement in his second career outing when rallying late to be a decent third in a similar affair in November. With another forward move today, the son of Sir Prancealot could be hard to contain. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in a race that should be treated with care.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 12:28 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 2-Mayacama
Backups: none.
Forecast: Mayacama is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite in this state-bred maiden $50,000 main track sprint for sophomore fillies. Her numbers have risen in each of her three starts and her most recent outing, a runner-up performance while almost six clear of the rest, was much faster than par for this level and makes her a stick out.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 12:58 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Big City Lights (pictured)
Backups: none.
Forecast: Here’s another very short price favorite that is highly likely to win. Big City Lights trounced a similar California-bred field at Del Mar by more than eight lengths when last seen in early November in the Cary Grant Stakes and he’s 2/5 on the morning line to do the same thing today. A winner of four of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Mr. Big has looked fit and ready in his morning trials to pick up where he left off in this year’s edition of the Cal Cup Sprint that drew just four challengers, all of whom look outclassed. In a race that offers no wagering value, the R. Mandella-trained veteran is a rolling exotic single in a pass race.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Miles Finch; 3-Cullen J
Backups: none.
Forecast: This maiden turf sprint for state-bred sophomores looks like a blackboard race, with Cullen J. cutting out the early fractions and then being worn down late by Miles Finch. The latter, back sprinting where he’s probably most comfortable, has rising speed figures and gets Lasix and F. Prat, so we’re expecting the money to show. Both should be used in rolling exotic play. It’s possible Cullen J. gets loose on the lead and never looks back, but it’s more likely that ‘Finch capitalizes on a dream trip and earns his diploma close home. Nobody else should matter.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 1:58 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Lonesome Slew; 5-Our Bucky Charm.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Lonesome Slew is very fast on speed figures and projects as the best of the pace pressers in this entry level allowance dirt sprint for California-bred older horses. A genuine and versatile son of Grazen, he’s effective on any surface and doesn’t need the lead to win, though in this race he’ll most likely dish out more pressure than he’ll get. The “X” factor in the field is the versatile comebacker Our Bucky Charm, who won both of his starts last year convincingly, one over the local dirt track and the other in a downhill grass dash. He’s a little shy in the speed figure department compared to our top pick but could easily be a better type this time around based on comeback breezes that have been highly impressive. The winner most likely will be one or the other.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 2:28 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 7-Stay and Scam.
Backups: 8-Safa.
Forecast: Stay and Scam has never finished off the board in nine career starts over the Santa Anita turf course and has been especially effective coming down the tricky Hillside course. She went a tad stale after a series of hard races during the fall but after a nearly three month vacation the genuine and consistent daughter of Square Eddie seems highly likely to bounce back with her best performance in this year’s renewal of the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint. She’ll be a short price as usual and is a logical rolling exotic single, though you may find the need to protect on a backup ticket or two with the always reliable late runner Safa.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 2:58 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10-Oscar’s Mark; 3-The Gypsy Cowboy; 6-Western Freedom
Backups: 12-Santa Barbarian; 11-Marc the Money Man
Forecast: Here’s a messy state-bred maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for sophomores that demands as much coverage as you can afford. The Gypsy Cowboy is the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite because he’s exiting a series of California-bred stakes races and today is facing considerably softer foes with back numbers that make him the one to beat. However, the son of Stay Thirsty lacks early speed and probably will take considerable dirt along the way. Perhaps offering a better gamble is the first timer Oscar’s Mark, from the C. Lewis barn. The son of Oscar Nominated looks to have his share of speed based on video we’ve seen, and in a field that appears to lack zip he could easily be a major player from gate to wire. The presence of J. Hernandez in the saddle makes him a live item in an open fray. Longshot players should consider Western Freedom. He’s a decent looking son of American Freedom (good race horse, failure at stud) who appears to have enough ability to act at this level at 12-1 on the morning line.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 3:28 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Old Pal; 1-On the Whim; 7-Aligato.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Old Pal has won three of seven career starts over the Santa Anita lawn, and while he lacks tactical speed and requires some degree of racing luck the son of Grazen is a likeable sort who always lays his body down. Freshened since mid-November, the M. Glatt-trained gelding is strong on figures and should have enough help up front to compliment his style in this year’s edition of the Unusual Heat Turf Classic. On the Whim is guaranteed an ideal ground saving trip from his rail draw and has beaten our top pick in the past. He’s won three of five over the Santa Anita lawn and seems certain to fire another big shot today. Aligato, off since last April, lands F. Prat and has run well fresh in the past. The son of Kitten’s Joy needs help up front but if a normal pace materializes he should at least get a piece of it.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 3:58 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Shea Brennan; 6-R Heisman; 2-I’m a Bad Boy.
Backups: 3-Style Cat.
Forecast: This group of state-bred sophomores is evenly matched and difficult to separate. Shea Brennan just won a cavalry charge against basically the same bunch in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos, and from his favorable rail draw he should fire a similar shot while either on the lead or from a ground-saving, pace-pressing position. R Heisman was a beaten choice in that race when finishing a close third (missing by a half-length) and figures in the battle once again. However, we wonder if he might be a tad better around one turn. I’m a Bad Boy, nosed out by our top pick in King Glorious, was forced to take the overland route in that race and it cost him the win. He’ll very likely be in thick of things once again. It’s a spread race, for sure.
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Santa Anita Race 11: Post: 4:28 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 10-Hey Jessie; 6-Take Another Card.
Backups: 2-Tequilaandtherapy; 9-Grateful My Love; 11-Pavel Is Appealing.
Forecast: Hey Jessie is developing with each start and with another forward move today the daughter of Grazen can duplicate her clever tally in the Soviet Problem Stakes at Los Alamitos last month in this year’s renewal of the California Cup Oaks. The switch to grass won’t be an issue; she handled the sod just fine when breaking her maiden two runs back at Del Mar. Regular rider P. Frey knows her well and should have the S. McCarthy-trained filly along in time. Take Another Card broke her maiden at first asking despite a slow start start in a grass sprint here last month. This is a much tougher group and the leap to two turns should be challenging, but this could be a fairly decent filly for trainer S. Callaghan.
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