Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Nell’s Legacy; 9-Musical Number; 7-Pavel Is Appealing.
Backups: 5-Press Your Luck
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a spread affair for first level allowance sophomore fillies sprinting on grass. Nell’s Legacy has burned money in her last pair but earned a career top number when settling for second over this course and distance last month. She’ll be running on late but may not be one to totally trust. Musical Number shortens from a two turn effort when pitched too high in the Cal Cup Oaks in her most recent start and seems likely to snap back to good form at this level at this trip. Her dirt numbers make her dangerous and there’s no reason she shouldn’t act on turf. Pavel Is Appealing also was overmatched in the Cal Cup Oaks but isn’t today. He sprint win two races back charts very well with these and she usually employs a lovely second flight, stalking trip that is ideally suited for this course and trip.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 4-Hakuhia; 7-Tiny Prancer.
Backups: 5-Noble Runner.
Forecast: Hakuhia drops to the bottom rung maiden $8,000 level and in this league appears to have found a field she can beat. She’s not a quick type but seems capable of grinding out a win in a race in which nothing would surprise us. Tiny Prancer is nicely drawn outside in her first start since the fall. She’s basically slow – they all are – but is another that may have found her friends. She’ll race without blinkers for the first time for whatever that’s worth and has back numbers that makes her a strong contender by default.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Covey (GB) ; 2-Dandy Man Shines (Ire); 6-Whatmakesammyrun.
Backups: 5-Game Time.
Forecast: Covey is hard to classify but in 2023 he was a decent sort of two-year-old in England and has trained nicely for M. McCarthy for his local debut, so we suspect he’ll fit with these. The English-bred son of Frankel used to be a front running type and in a race that lacks zip could have a strong pace presence. He’s likely to be a live item on the tote under J. Hernandez. Dandy Man Shines (Ire) is winless in eight starts over the Santa Anita lawn and has been away since August, but the J. Mullins-trained import has fired fresh in the past and is quite intriguing while shortening up in this Hillside dash. We suspect he’s always wanted to be a late running sprinter and today gets his chance to show it. On pure numbers, he’s a major player. Whatmakessammyrun is a course specialist moving way up in class seeking his third straight score and seems likely to fire another good shot for a barn that has a reputation for placing it’s stock properly. Frankie will have him rolling late.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Magic Wanderer; 3-Hot Jammies.
Backups: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a $5,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Magic Wanderer had a recent run over the local track when finishing an even fourth while earning her typical speed figure, which probably will be good enough if repeated today to win this restricted (nw-2) affair. Hot Jammies is the one to fear most based on the addition of blinkers and the class drop to her lowest level ever. She looks a bit quicker on paper than ‘Wanderer and has back figs that are more than good enough to win at this abbreviated sprint distance. Still, her recent form doesn’t inspire confidence. Tread lightly here.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Certitude (Fr); ; 2-Pink Whitney; 3-Upcharge.
Backups: 8-Lady Elizabethan.
Forecast: Certitude (Fr) is guaranteed an ideal trip from her favorable rail draw in this starter optional claimer on grass for fillies and mares and her recent solid form makes her the most reliable in the field. The barn is going through a tough stretch (three wins but 19 seconds and thirds at the current meeting) but this French import may help turn things turn around. Also, she’s reunited with her winning rider and her speed figures are solid for the level. Pink Whitney has a prior win over this course, retains Frankie, and is a one paced grinder who should draft into a good stalking position and have her chance from the quarter pole home. Upcharge got a confidence building recent win from maiden $50,000 foes over this course and distance during the fall season and her improving pattern could continue off the bench for the always dangerous P. D’Amato barn. She has rising numbers and a good late kick, retains her winning rider, and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line,
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Lady’s Sermon; 7-Twilight Empire
Backups: 2-Harney Lane.
Forecast: Lady’s Sermon vanned down from her Pleasanton home to score nicely in her first local outing last month facing a bit softer starter’s allowance/optional claiming field and if she can turn in two alike she’ll be tough right back. The D. Peterson-trained mare employs an effective second flight stalking style and gets an extra half furlong to work with today. Twilight Empire drops to her lowest level ever, lands the cozy outside post, and has numbers that fit. She shows a steady, healthy work pattern up north and is very likely to fit nicely at this level on this circuit. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two on the top line in rolling exotic play.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-True Quality; 7-Divin Propos (Fr).
Backups: 2-There Goes Harvard, 8-Easter (Fr).
Forecast: True Quality seeks his fourth straight score dating back to Thanksgiving weekend in the Hollywood Turf Cup-G1 and should be ready to pick up where he left off. A steady series of easy breezes during the past several weeks should have him fit and ready, and he’s fired fresh in the past for a barn that has solid stats with the layoff angle. Divin Propos (Fr), fifth with traffic trouble in the same race our top pick exits, has as reasonable look with better racing luck today. He’s a lightly raced gelding with room for further improvement and we suspect we haven’t seen his best quite yet.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:04 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: Seismic Beauty
Backups: none.
Forecast: Seismic Beauty may wind up going shorter on the tote than she should (we have her at 3/5 on the morning line) because her speed figures aren’t yet in the “can’t lose” territory, but with any kind of forward move the B. Baffert-trained filly shouldn’t have any difficulty winning again in her first start since August. The daughter of Uncle Mo demolished a maiden field at Del Mar, then was stopped on, but her comeback work pattern, containing slow and easy recent breezes, has a healthy look to it and so we expect her run back to her facile maiden score and then go on to bigger and better things. As if she needed the help, she draws the coveted outside draw, which will allow J. Hernandez to dictate his trip.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Soho; Lamporghini.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Soho must overcome the dreaded rail in this Hillside dash for first level allowance fillies and mares, but based on her recent form the task should not be too difficult to overcome. Most recently second over the local course with a career top number, the daughter of City of Light has enough speed to secure a favorable stalking position and then go on with it when called upon. Lamporghini looked much improved in a recent highly rated starter allowance victory over the flat course while earning a number that makes her quite competitive on the raise. We expect her to run just as well for J. Hernandez and she did for F. Prat. The winner most likely will be one of the two listed on our top line.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:04 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10-Andreadytorumble; 9-One Time Mark; 6-Cupid’s Crusader.
Backups: 2-Night Out.
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for restricted (nw-2) $25,00 claiming turf milers with plenty of possibilities. Use as many as your budget allows. Andyreadytorumble had a tough beat when going down by a neck at this level last month and a similar effort today might he good enough. This shortened trip to a mile shouldn’t have any effect on his performance. One Time Mark has beaten our top pick in the past and produced a couple of decent recent efforts facing a bit stronger starter allowance company. He projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance. Cupid’s Crusader makes the top line after finishing an okay third in the same race our top pick exits in early January. He’s a one paced grinder but usually gets at least a piece of it and may wind up being a playable number on the tote.
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