Santa Anita 1st Race – Post: 1:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Prime Gamble: 4-Acquitted
Other Contenders: 1-Comeback Girl; 5-What About Q; 8-Donttellourwives
Forecast: The first timers look okay (not great) in this wide open maiden juvenile grass dash, so perhaps a filly with a bit of prior experience will have an edge. Acquitted always has trained like a decent prospect but she’s been disappointing in her first two outings, so she may be hard to trust. Still, the daughter of Into Mischief continues to look like a decent type in the morning – most recently in a solo training track breeze in (5f, 1:00.3h TT) over the Tapeta surface – so there’s a reasonable expectation that she’ll be effective on grass. The R. Mandella-trained filly lands top rider J. Hernandez, so we’re willing to give her one more chance under the assumption that she’ll show her best stuff in her first outing on the lawn. Her morning line (4-1) reflects the race’s lack of depth, so we’ll make her a reasonable play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
______________________________________________________________________________
Santa Anita – 7th race - Post: 4:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Prime Gamble: 7-Uncle Happy.
Other Contenders: 6-Curlin’s Kaos.
Forecast: The most logical winner in this first level allowance affair is Curlin’s Kaos, fresh from a runaway big figure score in the state-bred Real Good Deal Stakes at Del Mar in early August. That race was sprinting on dirt while today’s assignment is a two-turn miler on grass, but if he can handle the change in surface and distance, the son of Clubhouse Ride can justify his short price. However, from a gambling standpoint, Uncle Happy has a solid chance at much better odds, so we’ll make the progressive son of Runhappy a play in the straight pool and the main push in the various rolling exotics. His Beyer speed figures have risen dramatically since arriving from Texas and joining the P. D’Amato stable, and in a race that projects to have modest early fractions he could become the controlling speed and never look back. Second in his local debut after leading until deep stretch, the sophomore gelding has trained well in the interim and is likely to produce another forward move, so the strategy is to double the race on our ticket and then press aggressively with Uncle Happy on top.
.svg){kind=logo}
