Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Hudson Ridge; 2-Kawazaki (Ire).
Backups: none.
Forecast: Back in the day Hudson Ridge was a stakes winner over this course, and while he’s slumming now facing restricted (nw-3) $30,000 claimers the B. Baffert-trained gelding, in his first start since last June, should be able to outclass this field. The work tab looks healthy and the alternatives in this one mile turf affair aren’t inspiring. Kawazaki (Ire) will have a strong look if our top pick fails to fire. His recent win over this course and distance against lesser foes earned a decent number and at age six with just 12 career starts he may have a bit of improvement in him.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3-Jerry’s Spirit; 4-Supernal.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Jerry’s Spirit crushed a restricted field for this price in mid-March and returns at the same $25,000 claiming level in his first start since being haltered by S. Knapp. This is not a healthy sign. Clearly, the son of Ghostzapper is good enough to win but we wonder if he’s the same horse now as he was five weeks ago. If not, the” other” Knapp, Supernal, will be dangerous. He’s almost as fast as ‘Spirit is as it is, and this class drop seems warranted. The concern is his lack of tactical speed; he’ll need some help up front to be effective.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1-Over Attracted; Unwritten Code
Backups: 6-She’s a Joker.
Forecast: Over Attracted seems solid at this level and should fire another good shot, though her lack of tactical speed from her rail draw may prove to be a bit dicey. The L. Powell-trained mare fits well on numbers but will need some help up front to have her best chance. Unwritten Code is a first-off-the-claim play for J. Mullins and that’s an automatic play in our book. She was nowhere in the same race our top pick just finished second in, so there’s work to be done, but the daughter of Desert Code almost assuredly with step forward and is a two-time winner over the local lawn, so there are reasons to be optimistic. She has enough early speed to be within range throughout in a race that could have soft early splits.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-My Love Caroline; 4-Tapatia Mia:
Backups: 6-Cara Rose; 8-Still Unwritten.
Forecast California-bred babies sprint four and one-half furlongs and five of the eight starters were bred by the same guy. Tread lightly. My Love Caroline hails from a barn that does well in these early juvenile dashes and her workout times look pretty good. We have to believe she’ll be a live item. Tapatia Mia was run up to $65,000 at auction so she’s probably a decent looking individual. The S. Knapp barn has excellent stats with debut runners, so we’ll assume she’s fit and ready. In what amounts to a guessing game, this race probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 3-Bob’s Blue Moon; 8-Don’t Swear Dave.
Backups: 5-Jetovator.
Forecast: Bob’s Blue Moon is fast in figures for this restricted $32,000 claiming level and is overdue for a win. The S. Sherman-trained gelding employs a good stalking style and should be just where he wants to be from the quarter pole to the wire. Don’t Swear Dave is a three-time winner over the local turf course and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, outside trip and have every chance from there. He ran well when second over this course and distance for this price two runs back and a repeat of that race today makes him a major player.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9-Approval Rating
Backups: 2-Tapatia Leah.
Forecast: Approval Rating stayed on willingly to be a distant fourth after some significant early trouble from the rail in a better-than-looked debut against a stronger group than she’s seeing today. With any kind of improvement and a trouble free trip, the daughter of Ride On Curlin should be able to earn her diploma in this restricted maiden special weight dash for older fillies and mares. Let’s take a stand and may her a win play and rolling exotic single while relegating the money burning 9/5 morning line favorite Tapatia Leah to a backup role.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8-Starship Sedona; 14-Charmed Dream
Backups: 12-Nephele.
Forecast: Starship Sedona plummets in class after being outfooted in maiden special weight grass company in her debut last month. Though she was always far back, the daughter of Sir Prancelot actually didn’t run horribly and earned a speed figure that if repeated on dirt should be enough to handle this modest maiden $12,500 assignment. Charmed Dream ran well when second for maiden $8,000 here two weeks ago and nothing much more than that probably will be needed despite the slight raise in class. She’ll have to work out a decent trip from the 14-hole but should be able to get over and secure a proper position by the time the field hits the turn.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 9-Princesa Del Tigre; 5-Nothing Is Forever.
Backups:8-Quantum Innergy.
Forecast: Princesa Del Tigre just missed in a brave effort in a similar turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares in her first outing since June and the T. McCanna barn has solid stats with the second off a layoff angle, so we’re expecting a similar effort today. She’s always been a genuine and consistent sort, and while she was on the lead before being worn down late last time out she might be a bit more effective if held up a bit today. Nothing is Forever might slightly prefer dirt to turf but in her present form the A. Mathis-trained daughter of Grazen must be considered a major player. She likes to settle early and produce a late kick and if the pace is legit she’ll very likely be heard from late.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Halo Rando
Backups: 1-Chasin Munny.
Forecast: Halo Rando has been away since January but returns protected by high percentage trainer D. Pederson in a sign of confidence and really should be too quick for these. He’s unbeaten in two starts over the Santa Anita main track and projects to lead gate to wire with anything close to his best race. The workout pattern is quite healthy despite the layoff, another strong plus. He’s 2-1 on the morning line and probably will go lower.
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