Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream | Saturday, March 30, 2024

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RACE 1

3-THE JIG IS UP (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B-

•      Breezed well, then sold for $400,000 at the 2023 OBS March sale.  
•      Barn doesn’t win many with first timers, but work tab is healthy.
• Known element doesn’t impress, so let’s try a fresh face at 6-1.  

Others to consider: 5-Grog.


RACE 2

5-FLY THE W
Degree of confidence: B

•      Tapeta specialist (12 wins) just missed as the favorite vs. similar.
•      Consistently strong speed figures; employs an ideal stalking style.
•      Rarely misses a beat; rested for five weeks, should fire a big shot.  

Others to consider: 3-Spirit Animal.


RACE 3

8-SET
Degree of confidence:  B+

•      Demolished maidens at first asking over this course and distance.
•      Won as the controlling speed; likely to face more early heat today.
•      Earned a huge speed figure in victory like a very bright prospect.

Others to consider: 4-Tok Tok.


RACE 4

1-ROTTERDAM
Degree of confidence: C+

•      Lightly raced with room to improve and will benefit from inside draw.
•      Never worse than second in five starts; just earned career top figure.    
•      Concern: way since early February and has been scratched twice since.

Others to consider: 5-Just a Photo; 7-Meyer; 8-Fredo; 12-Sir London.


RACE 5

10-IDONEO
Degree of confidence:  B-

•      Debuting son of Uncle Mo shows three straight bullet workouts.
•      Homebred Godolphin sophomore colt lands a cozy outside post.
•      All of the previous runners in this field show lower than par figs.

Others to consider: 6-Mindframe; 9-One Sharp Cookie; 7-Ponce de Leon.  


RACE 6

2-KERTEZ (GB)
Degree of confidence: B+

•      Multiple group stakes placed; makes his U.S. debut for C. Clement.
•      Earned European Timeform ratings that make him a fit with these.  
•      First or second in six of seven starts at this marathon 12-furlong tip.

Others to consider: 6-Tawny Port; 8-Starting Over.  


RACE 7

5-TUMBARUMBA
Degree of confidence: B+

•      Nosed out in Gulfstream Mile but equaled his career top figure.
•      Effective around two turns and projects to employ pressing tactics.
•      Always genuine and consistent; first or second in eight of 13 starts.

Others to consider: 6-Steal Sunshine.


RACE 8

7-OZARA (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B

•      Was too close to a hot pace and paid for it when missing as the chalk.  
•      Switches to J. Rosario and is likely to receive the patient ride she needs.
•      Two time stakes winner over the local lawn seems set to make amends.

Others to consider: 9-Pharoah’s Wine.


RACE 9

6-OSCAR ECLIPSE
Degree of confidence:  B+

•      Launches a comeback showing two recent bullet works to have him ready.
•      Was fast on figures last summer and could easily be a better type now.
•      Has the perfect stalking/pressing style for this elongated sprint distance.

Others to consider: 3-Long Range Toddy.


RACE 10

1-LA MEHANA (FR)
Degree of confidence: B+

•      Quality mare from France was Group-1 placed before arriving stateside.  
•      Trained well for her U.S. debut and should be fit enough for a top effort.  
•      Lands the rail, has excellent tactical speed; will be prominent throughout.  

Others to consider: 4-Surprisingly; 6-McKulick.  


RACE 11

4-WAYS AND MEANS
Degree of confidence:  A-

•      Displayed immense talent in two starts last year; ready to resume her career.  
•      Can fire fresh (won her debut by 13 lengths); has trained like she is fit and ready.
•      Pedigree suggests two turns should be within her range; barn 24% with layoffs.  

Others to consider: none.


RACE 12

8-MARKETSEGMENTATION
Degree of confidence:  A-

•      Away since last summer but shows a healthy series of Payson Park works.
•      Can fire fresh (won her debut) and is a perfect 2-for-2 over the local lawn.  
•      Powerful numbers last year; Grade-1 winner should outclass her rivals.

Others to consider: none.  


RACE 13

5-NEVER SURPRISED
Degree of confidence: B

•      Lightly raced 6-year-old has finished first or second in 10 of 11 career races.  
•      Returned off a 15 month layoff to miss by a nose in a strong allowance race.
•      Multiple stakes winner faces tougher but is likely to produce a forward move.

Others to consider: 3-Ice Chocolat (BRZ); 4-Big Everest.


RACE 14

10-FIERCENESS
Degree of confidence:  B+

•      Never know what you’re going to get but his best effort handles this field.
•      Sparkling recent workouts; projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking journey.
•      Conquest Warrior is a colt with extreme potential and is the one to fear most.  

Others to consider: 9-Conquest Warrior.  

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