Jeff Siegel: Saratoga Analysis | Monday, September 6, 2021

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis - Monday, September 6, 2021

September 6, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).  For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:  Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play.  Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1:  Post:  12:35 ET Grade: C+
Use: 1-Equal Pay; 6-Big City Momma; 7-Someday Magic

Forecast: State-bred maiden fillies and mares kick off closing day with Equal Pay, beaten 33 lengths when favored in a similar affair in the mud in July, getting a  chance to make amends on fast ground (hopefully) while being listed at 2-1 on the morning line.  The daughter of Quality Road continues to train like a very fast filly for C. Brown, so if she leaves cleanly from the rail she’ll have no excuses.  Big City Momma was beaten double digits in her first two starts but hooked a monster (Bella Sofia) in her debut and then was a distant third in the mud in another highly-rated race last time out.  She’ll be running on late.  Someday Maybe has been training at Belmont Park for her debut and shows a bullet five furlong drill (1:00.2bg, fastest of seven) that indicates some ability.  She’s probably worth tossing in as a back-up.  
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RACE 2:  Post: 1:10 ET Grade:
Use: 4-Belarus; 7-Call Sign Charlie; 8-Kisses for Emily

Forecast: Here’s a highly-contentious abbreviated sprint for New York-bred juvenile fillies that presents the player with several unknowns and question marks.  We’ll go three-deep, but you should use as many as your feel comfortable with.  Kisses for Emily impressed at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale when she displayed good athleticism during the preview session (:10 2/5), and while her workouts at Belmont Park leading up to her debut are steady without jumping off the page the daughter of Union Jackson must be well regarded after bringing $125,000 at auction.  The outside draw is in her favor, so we suspect she’ll be able to show her best stuff.  Belarus has done some good work in the a.m. for H. DePaz and looks like a live item in an open fray.  She’s actually listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite, and it will be interesting to see if the bettors follow.  Call Sign Charlie hails from a barn that has superior stats with first-timers (25% with a massive ROI).  Youngsters trained by J. Abreu almost always run better than they work, so this daughter of Mission Impazible has to be included somewhere on your ticket.  
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RACE 3:  Post: 1:43 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-En Wye Cee; 3-L’Emperator

Forecast: L’Imperator and En Wye Cee finished one-three in a third-level allowance event last month but there are reasons to believe the latter may be able turn the tables in this year’s edition of the Bernard Baruch H.-G2 that drew just five entrants.  The lightly-raced 5-year-old (just eight career starts) was making his first start in 10 months and had a right to be a bit short, and he has a history of running better in his second start off a layoff, so we’re expecting the T. Pletcher-trained son of Declaration of War to step forward considerably.  L’Imperator has won four of six career starts and the former French allowance performer earned a giant speed figure when winning in his first outing in almost a year.  There’s no reason to believe he can’t do better as well.  In a tough call, we’ll give En Wye Cee a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4:  Post: 2:16 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-My Roxy Girl; 6-Frills

Forecast: Frills has been a hot item at the claim box lately, having changed hands in her last two starts and four of her last five.  She now goes for an outfit that hits at 21% with a strong ROI so we suspect the daughter of Candy Ride will maintain her strong recent form that has produced nine first or second place finishes from 18 career outings.  She’s double-jumped in class from $12,500 to $20,000 in a sign of confidence and is a strong fit on speed figures despite the class hike.  My Roxie Girl returns to her claim level after being pitched too high in a couple of recent allowance affairs.  This will be career start number 50 for the 6-year-old mare, was virtually eased last time out but has bounced back in the past off poor runs.  She has to be considered a major player at this level.  
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RACE 5:  Post: 2:47 ET Grade: B
Single: 4-Abaan

Forecast: Rebel of Law and American Law exit the same race and should receive the bulk of the wagering support in this middle distance straight maiden affair over the inner turf course.  But neither one is trustworthy.  Realm of Law has failed as the favorite in each of his four previous races, most recently when a no-excuse third vs. similar at 6/5.  He’s a one-paced grinding type that continues to get play due to his connections but in truth really isn’t all that much.  American Law failed at 70 cents on the dollar two runs back when a weak and distant third, and then most recently couldn’t muster a rally when second without mishap in his local debut.  A viable alternative is Abaan, even though he’s exiting a maiden claimer. In his first start on grass, the son of Will Take Charge had to overcome the extreme outside post to finish a good second while earning a career top speed figure, his fifth consecutive forward move based on numbers and one good enough to win today despite the apparent hike in class.  The T. Pletcher-trained gelding projects to draft into a stalking position and have every chance from there, so at 4-1 on the morning line let’s try him in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.  
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RACE 6:  Post: 3:22 ET Grade: B-
Use: 6-Ocean Air; 8-Linny Kate; 11-Perhaps Tonight

Forecast: Ocean Air has been nibbling in tougher starter’s allowance races lately and today drops into a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 trying to find her winning level.  The daughter of English Channel is solid in the speed figure department, switches to L. Saez, and though a bit of a grinder should find herself in a good second flight position and then have her chance to wear down the leaders late.  Linny Kate is the one to fear most, as the lightly-raced daughter of Tonalist shows up in a seller for the first time and picks up I. Ortiz, Jr.  She encountered plenty of self-caused early trouble (she was extremely rank) before finishing with interest to be a reasonable fourth in an allowance race at Monmouth Park in her most recent appearance in mid-July.  If she can settle early and produce a similar late kick, she’ll be hard to contain.  Perhaps Tonight shows the first-time-in-a-claimer angle with numbers that fit in this league.  The Delaware shipper has a good stalking style and has a reasonable look off her nice maiden score two runs back.
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RACE 7:  Post: 3:54 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Don’t Wait Up; 6-Drakon; 9-Torpedo Run; 10-Pine Valley

Forecast: Here’s another challenging maiden 2-year-old event, and while it may not contain a world beater there are several in here that have trained well enough the win.  Don’t Wait Up has the benefit of a prior outing, having been beaten a nose in his debut last month while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a race that earned a solid speed figure.  The A. Dutrow-trained son of Upstart switches to Johnny V. and seems the logical top pick.  Torpedo Run breezed a furlong in :10 2/5 while appearing a bit green at the Fasig-Tipton March sale at Gulfstream Park but still brought $450,000 and clearly is well-regarded, while Pine Valley, purchased at the same sale for $250,000, also breezed in :10 2/5, and as a son of Maclean’s Music certainly is bred to win early.  Drakon, a son of First Samurai, brought $200,000 at the OBS April sale, where he previewed in :10 flat, and with one of the barn’s “go-to” riders (M. Franco) in the saddle this colt has the look of a live one.  
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RACE 8:  Post: 4:29 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Consumere Spending; 7-Silvery Rill

Forecast: The two fillies listed above have a chance to be legitimate stakes performers in due time and make this maiden special weight middle distance turf event for juveniles a much stronger than par race, at least on paper.  Silvery Rill was worn down late after striking the front in mid-stretch in her debut in a promising run for C. Clement and then was entered back but scratched in the P. G. Johnson S. when the race came off the turf.  The daughter of War Front switches to L. Saez and will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home.  Consumer Speaking was given a somewhat easy run in her debut when a closing runner-up to stable mate McKulick last month and seems certain to step forward considerably with that bit of experience behind her.  The daughter of More Than Ready has trained steadily  in the interim  for a barn that hits at 25% with second-timers.  Whatever she has, she’ll most likely show it today.
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RACE 9:  Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Miss Jimmy; 6-Awesome Debate; 8-Honey Money

Forecast>: This state-bred allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares looks to have at least three main contenders, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  Miss Jimmy, away since February but always thoroughly genuine and consistent (first or second in 17 of 20  career starts), has trained well enough at Finger Lakes to be fit to fire off the bench and at this extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs the daughter of Colonel John will have her chance to settle early and (with good racing luck) produce a winning late kick.  She’s fairly priced at 6-1 on the morning line.  Awesome Debate looked very good winning the Union Avenue S. here last month over a sloppy track that she obviously enjoyed.  The veteran mare in Brown’s barn has traded punches with our top pick on a few occasions and should be in the thick of it from start to finish.  Honey Money is slightly slower on speed figures than her two main rivals, but she employs a good stalking that generally produces a trouble-free trip and at 6-1 on the morning line should at least get a piece of it.  
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RACE 10:  Post: 5:38 ET Grade: B+
Use: 6-Wit; 8-High Oak

Forecast: Very much like his highly promising young sire Practical Joke during his racing days, Wit has the makings of a devasting late-running sprinter and should employ that style again to great effectiveness in this year’s renewal of the Hopeful S.-G1.  Winner of his two previous outings by a combined 14 lengths, the T. Pletcher-trained colt  has been away since his easy romp in mid-July in the Sanford S.-G1 but has been kept on edge in the interim and should fire another monster shot today.  High Oak also in unblemished in two starts and just earned a 90 Beyer speed figure – identical the Wit’s career top – when drawing away with authority to capture the  Saratoga Special-G2 by more than four lengths.  Although he was sent off at 10-1, the victory by the son of Gormley was no fluke and like our top pick has every reason to enjoy today’s extra half-furlong.  Preference on top goes to Wit, but we’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics.  
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RACE 11:  Post: 6:10 ET Grade: B-
Use: 4-Ghost Giant; 6-Cold Hard Cash; 12-Klickitat

Forecast: This first-level allowance inner turf miler for New York-bred older horses drew a full field and is a messy affair with several possibilities.  Ghost Giant has been claimed in his last three starts and today goes for the R. Atras barn (a sensational 32% with this angle), so we expect the veteran gelding to run at least as good if not better than his recent form, which is pretty good to begin win.  Freshened since early July but protected off the bench in a sign of confidence, the son of Frost Giant shows a prior win over the Saratoga lawn, switches to one of the barn’s go-to riders R. Santana, Jr. and projects to settle into a good second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.  At 8-1 on the morning line he’s as good as any and better than most.  Cold Hard Cash us another thoroughly consistent performer (first or second in nine of 16 career outings) with solid speed figures for the level reunited with “win rider” J. Velasquez.  Klickitat actually defeated the two other main contenders two races back and is a solid threat once again, though his extreme outside 12-position is less than ideal.  
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RACE 12:  Post: 6:42 PT Grade: C+
Use: 4-Stella Mars; 5-Norman Queen; 6-New York Supreme; 7-Black Panda

Forecast: The season’s finale is a maiden claiming turf sprint for New York-bred fillies and mares.  Norman Queen is a first-timer for the W. Ward barn that doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, so for a trainer that hits at 32% with his debut runners and showing a bullet half mile gate drill (:47 3/5, fastest of 34) she may have found a proper spot at 3-1 on the morning line.  Black Panda, away since March but returning as a first-time Lasix user, showed some early speed in a pair of races at Aqueduct and could easily be a better type this time around for a low profile outfit.  She recorded a couple of bullet drills at Keeneland before vanning to the Spa, so we doubt she’s here to be given a race.  Stella Mars finished second in her last two starts when facing similar foes and won’t have to improve much to win, while New York Supreme earned a career top figure despite a less-than-ideal trip over this course and distance last time out and may be most effective if held up early and allowed to finish down the lane.  

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