Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Buzz of New York; 5-Takemebythehand
Forecast: 2-Buzz of New York wasted a perfect trip when failing to change leads the length of the lane and then just failing by a head to catch Summer Daisy in a similar maiden route affair for fillies and mares at Del Mar last month. Not much more will be needed to beat this field, though the loss of F. Prat (who is out of town) won’t help matters, Also, as an eight-race maiden, she’s probably not one to trust. Takemebythehand was given too much to do when a non-threatening fourth (beaten two and one-half lengths) in her U.S. debut at Del Mar in mid-July. The J. Mullins-trained English-bred sophomore gets an extra furlong to work with today, sports a healthy series of recent workouts, and should be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved with.
Notable Workouts
5-Takemebythehand (September 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h TT). Grade: B-
Easy solo training track breeze for J. Mullins, just galloping while coming the final three furlongs in :12.3 and :38.1. Long-winded English-bred maiden filly should improve as the distances increase and has a right to step forward following an okay U.S. debut in July at Del Mar.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Silver Moon Road; 5-Rookie Year
Forecast: Silver Moon Road has won two of his last three races with strong figures, the victories sandwiching a last place two-turn performance behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Ginobili routing at Del Mar in a race in which the T. Yakteen-trained gelding was fried on a blistering pace and was virtually eased late. A 12-length maiden claiming win over this track and distance in June charts extremely well in this $50,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds, and with good bug girl J. Pyfer riding him back the son of Secret Circle appears well-placed to continue his winning form. Rookie Year broke his maiden by more than nine lengths at this trip over this distance in early May and has two-turned in each of his four races since. Back sprinting, the P. Miller-trained gelding isn’t as fast on numbers as our top pick but projects to draft into a comfortable stalking/pressing position and then have his chance to produce a career top performance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Silver Moon Road.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B
Single: 9-Kazuhiko
Forecast: Kazuhiko was given a run in his U.S. debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar in early August, failing to change leads in the stretch (typical for him) but coming home strongly without being knocked about to wind up third, beaten just over a length, and then galloping out well while clearly finding the five furlong trip a bit too sharp. The son of Deep Impact should be much more serious today today while greatly appreciating today’s extra furlong, so from his outside nine-post draw we’re hoping the 4-year-old Australian-bred colt can produce the last run. In a race in which no attractive alternates exists and at 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Creative Peak; 6-Straight Up G
Forecast: Straight Up G is a first-timer from the R. Baltas barn with win-early breeding from a comfortable outside draw in a juvenile sprint that drew just six entrants. The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs jump off the page, so in a race that came up light the son of Straight Fire seems well-placed to score at first asking. Creative Peak was eliminated soon after the start as the even money favorite in a Los Alamitos maiden special weight sprint and today makes a positive barn change to V. Cerin. The son of Creative Cause, a respectable runner-up two races back in his debut at Santa Anita in a fairly fast race, is the best of the known element and is worth including in rolling exotic play either as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Let Freedom Rein; 8-Lucky Girl
Forecast: Let Freedom Rein gained valuable experience in her debut when winding up a willing third while on her own courage behind subsequent stakes winner Cairo Memories in a similar maiden turf miler for juvenile fillies and caught the eye galloping out full of run entering the clubhouse turn. R. Gonzalez got to known her in the race, stays aboard, and should have this $190,000 daughter of Constitution within range throughout and with every chance to produce a winning late kick. There’s excellent wagering value here at 4-1 on the morning line for a barn that has solid stats with the second-time starter angle. Lucky Girl displayed considerable promise when third of 14 in her debut in Ireland in July despite a very slow start and an extremely wide trip and gives every indication of being a well-meant European invader for R. Baltas following a strong series of workouts since arriving in California. She will be dangerous if she switches off behind horses and then produces a similar late run to the one she manufactured in her debut.
Notable Workouts:
Lucky Girl (October 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h TT). Grade: B
Even with Gold Dragon Queen (same time) for R. Baltas, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches in solid training track drill while gearing up for U.S. debut. Steady, grinding sort will need a distance of ground on this circuit to show her best stuff. Looks fit, should be a live item when facing maiden juvenile fillies on grass.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade:
Use: 4-Ka’nah; 5-Cunning Munnings
Forecast:This restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint doesn’t have a whole lot in it, so we’ll double the race using the two main contenders. Ka’nah ran quite well when runner-up at this level two runs back, finishing second while more than four lengths clear of the rest, and repeat of that effort today should be sufficient. The Gio Ponti gelding has run well over this main track in the past and projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Cunning Munnings, away since November but returning for a barn that has strong stats (20%) with layoff runners, has been given a solid foundation of workouts both at San Luis Rey Downs and at Santa Anita to be fit and ready. The M. Glatt-trained gelding has back numbers that are good enough to win at this level, though his lack of tactical speed is a bit concerning. We’ll prefer Ka’nah on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Ippodamia’s Girl
Forecast: Ippodamia’s Girl needs to be held up early and produced late and given that type of trip the veteran mare should regain her winning form in this year’s renewal of the Swingtime S. over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. A bullet half mile training track drill (:46 2/5, fastest of 16) eight days ago is significant, as is the switch to one of the barn’s “go-to” riders, M. Gutierrez, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’re going to play the daughter of Stormy Atlantic with confidence in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
4-Ippodamia’s Girl (October 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.2h TT). Grade: B+
Was let run through the lane and responded well with quick splits of :23 flat and :46.3, full stride late while appearing quite sharp. Has plenty of speed but form suggests she’s most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home. Happiest at a mile.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B--
Use: 4-Test Drive; 6-Honor Among Men; 9-Sometimes Always
Forecast: We’ll triple this low level restricted (nw-2) $16,000 sprint for older horses that offers three main players and a few others with a look as well. Sometimes Always is guaranteed a lovely stalking trip outside and should have dead aim on the leaders every step of the way. The route-to-sprint angle is in full effect for this son of Morning Line, who was a clever winner around one corner two races back with a similar type of journey that he’ll enjoy today. Quite popular at the claim box, he’s changed barns in five of his seven career starts and retains U. Rispoli for new trainer J. Gutierrez while showing a steady, healthy work tab for his first race since mid-August. Honor Among Men missed in a photo as the favorite vs. similar at Los Alamitos last month after stumbling at the start and then getting worn down close home despite digging in gamely. He’ll need to navigate an extra half-furlong today but with a clean start the son of Bayern appears the most dangerous of the front-runners. Test Drive, in his first start following a claim by J. Wong (33% with this angle), is lightly-raced with a closing kick that could make him dangerous if a pace meltdown materializes. He picks up the stable’s “go to” rider A. Cedillo (24% with a massive flat-bet profit) and is worth using somewhere on your ticket at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-I’ll Stand Taller; 2-Clem Labine; 4-Surplus
Forecast: I’ll Stand Taller is back sprinting where he’s always been most comfortable and at 6-1 on the morning line represents a reasonable gamble in this extended turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred older horses. The D. O’Neill-trained colt has rising speed figures, a strong recent training track drill to have him on edge, and a stalking style that should have give him every chance to tag the leaders close home. Surplus continued his improving pattern by graduating from California-bred company over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar in late August. The P. Miller-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure in victory and a similar performance today makes him dangerous right back. Ex-Dodger reliever and three time World Series champion Clem Labine is a deep closing sprinter trying grass for the first time. As a son of Grazen, the Northern California-based gelding should have no difficulty adapting to the change in surface, and with good racing luck and some help up front he could pose a serious threat once again in the late stages.
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