Jeff Siegel: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies | Monday, Oct. 11, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1:  Post:  1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Billy’s Bet; 2-Oubabe; 8-Vanisky; 9-Liberty Forever

Forecast: The Monday opener for state-bred maiden juveniles sprinting five furlongs on grass is a messy affair full of question marks. Best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Oubabe showed some ability in his debut at Los Alamitos when a close third in a similar Cal-bred dash that earned an okay speed figure. If he can repeat that type of race on the sod, he can win. Billy’s Bet has trained like he has a bit of ability for his debut and has a grass pedigree, so this newcomer from the A. Barba barn may be competitive if he leaves running from the rail. Liberty Forever represents stranger danger from the San Luis Rey Downs. The work tab isn’t fancy but the P. Miller barn can be clever with these newcomers so we’ll take an educated guess (emphasis on guess) that he can run some, while Vanisky, a son of good grass sire Vronsky, shows a modest series of workouts but is another who could be considerably better on turf.

Notable Workouts:
1-Billy’s Bet (September 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4hg). Grade: B-
Second best in a three-horse gate drill with Roses R Blue (same time) and Fluent (5f, 1:01.3hg), ridden along most of the way while a length behind ‘Blue when eased up after a half mile, splits of :23.4, :35.3 and :47.3 on our watches, not bad for maiden juvenile. Gelded son of Unusual Heatwave seems like a fair to moderate type on dirt but is bred for grass and may eventually due his best  on the lawn.
View Workout Video

5-Outta Hand (October 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: C+
In blinkers, in a three-horse gate drill outside with Loma Vista (5f, 1:01.1hg, slightly best) and Altruist (5f, 1:01.3hg) and was under some coaxing most of the way with steady splits :36 flat and :48.1. not particularly impressive. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

7-Synnin and Winnin (October 3, Santa Anita, $f, :49h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, broke off two lengths behind and was urged and ridden hard through the lane to be even to the wire with Quincey (4f, :49.2h) for P. D’Amato while gearing up for debut. Mr. Big gelding acts like a fair sort at best right now but may do better when given a chance on grass.
4f, :49.2h),
View Workout Video

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 2:  Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 4-Warrens Candy Man; 5-Funkenstein

Forecast: We’ll pass this race but for rolling exotic purposes include the two listed above on our ticket. Neither one is trustworthy, so tread lightly. Warrens Candy Man is a 13-race maiden but has numbers that can win this weak affair, so he’s sure to get plenty of play. Funkenstein ran well at this level earlier in his career before being raised to maiden special weight company in his last four starts. Against this bunch he’s a contender with anything close to his best race and he should be forwardly placed and have every chance.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 3:  Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sugary; 3-Star of Africa; 8-Over Attracted

Forecast: This is another open affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Star of Africa is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and drops to her proper level after facing considerably tougher foes in her last four starts. She’s most effective on the lead and if not pressured early could take this field gate-to-wire. Sugary is another with multiple wins over the Santa Anita lawn and projects to earn a good stalking, ground-saving trip. Over Attracted exits a much tougher event when overmatched and never a threat but her win two races back charts well against this group, so we’ll toss her in as well.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 4:  Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mr. Dougie Fresh; 5-Sayin Grace

Forecast: Mr. Dougie Fresh was a voided claim for $16,000 in late August at Del Mar and today returns to the bottom $10,000 level while retaining F. Prat. We have to think that whatever was bothering him has been taken care off. The P. Miller-trained veteran stretches out to a mile, which used to be his favorite trip, so we’ll put him on top in a lackluster affair. Sayin Grace won an $8,000 seller at Los Alamitos with  decent number, so if he can reproduce that form on the big track the J. Wong-trained gelding should be quite competitive right back. However, he’s always preferred to run second or third (18 times) rather than win (four times). We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 5:  Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ox Bridge; 6-Streak and Cheese

Forecast: Steak and Cheese was a voided claim for $32,000 when a good runner-up at this level on grass at Del Mar last time out, so he goes again for M. Maker barn while dropping a level and retaining U. Rispoli. If healthy, he’s the one to beat and has shown he can be effective on the front end or if held up early and allowed to run late. Given the pace projection of this turf miler, the son of Mizzen Mast probably will settle in the second flight and then launch his bid when called upon. Ox Bridge is most comfortable on the lead, so we’ll assume he’ll be sent from the bell to establish the running. His form over this grass course is quite good and he’s dropping out of tougher starter’s $50,000 allowance races to a level that should be much more agreeable to him. Preference on top goes to Steak and Cheese but we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 6:  Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B-
Single: 9-Rattrapante

Forecast:Let’s take a shot with the sprinter-stretching-out angle and put Rattrapante on top. This will be her first try around two turns, so we expect to see her on the lead as the controlling speed and given that type of trip in a race without effective closers she could get brave and keep on going. At 4-1 on the morning line she’s as good as any, and if it’s not her, it could be anybody.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 7:  Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cucina; 3-Little Juanito

Forecast: Cucina seems interesting in this first-level allowance optional claiming turf sprint for older horses. He’s a first-off-the-claim for J. Sadler, he’s backing up from a mile, and his best form seems to be as a late-running sprinter. A prior winner sprinting on grass and picking up U. Rispoli, he’s sure to receive the patient ride he prefers, so at 3-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top. Little Juanito shows up in a claimer for the first time after being pitched too high when unplaced in the Green Flash H.-G3 last time out. He’s won over this course in the past and should be dangerous while on or near the lead throughout.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 8:  Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C+
Single: 1-Dark Prince; 10-Defense Wins

Forecast: Defense Wins, drops a notch below his claim level and is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, so this M. Maker-trained gelding should regain his best form after failing to land a blow in a starter allowance dash at Los Alamitos last time out. He’s never been one to trust but if he can get some help up front the son of Flatter should be heard from late. Dark Prince will bust out from the rail and go and if he can shake loose early he could get brave late. The barn doesn’t win many, but this Cairo Prince gelding has numbers that fit and a win two races back at Del Mar that charts quite well with these.

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 9:  Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Solo Animo; 10-Rosenquist

Forecast: Solo Animo drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and seems sure to improve in his second start off a long layoff. The P. D’Amato barn is overdue for some winners and this lightly-raced son of Carpe Diem may have found his friends. He’s run well on grass in the past and earned a number in his only prior route try that is better than par for this level. Rosenquist makes his first start since June and this Midwest invader should be quite competitive on this circuit for this $50,000 maiden claiming price. He’s worked well in the a.m. for new trainer K. Mulhall and though poorly drawn this first-time gelding could be better than shown. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in somewhere.

Notable Workouts:
10-Rosenquist (October 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03h). Grade: B
In blinkers, breezing through the lane, never really asked at any stage, final half mile in :24.3 and :50.2. Looks fine off the bench for K. Mulhall; Midwest invader is a first-time gelding and appear to be a happy sort.
View Workout Video

______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________

RACE 10:  Post: 5:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-Moraz; 9-Velvet Slippers

Forecast: Velvet Slippers is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but the B. Baffert-trained filly has rising numbers and switches to F. Prat, so if she can navigate a decent trip the daughter of Quality Road should be hard to beat. She’s won on the lead but can stalk and pounce if asked, so at 2-1 on the morning line she deserves top billing. Moraz returns to dirt after just missing as the favorite at this level on grass at Del Mar last month. She earned a big figure when narrowly missing in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 over the local main track last winter and if she can repeat that performance today she’ll be major player. Preference on top goes to Velvet Slippers but both should be included on your rolling exotic ticket.

______________________________________________________________________________


continue reading