Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Lone Scout; 4-Flintmore
Forecast: Lone Scout has been away since October but if he returns as well as he left he can beat this modest maiden field. The Tonalist gelding is strong on speed figures and has worked well enough to be fit for a major effort off the bench. As an eight-race maiden, he can’t be called trustworthy, but this is the easiest bunch on turf he’s ever faced. Flintmore is one of six exiting the same race (won by Beef Winslow) and finished ahead of the others when winding up second. He’s a one-paced type that should produce a forward move in his first try at nine furlongs.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Catbernay; 2-Rantanen; 6-Big Scott Daddy
Forecast: Catbernay makes his first start since August after being a voided claim and then being turned out. A perfect one-for-one sprinting over the Santa Anita main track, the G. Stute-trained gelding has plenty of zip and, assuming he still has most of his old speed, should be able to clear the field from his rail post position. The work tab looks promising and should have him plenty fit. Rantanen, a willing runner-up in his first start in 18 months, drops sharply in class off that promising run in an indication that his connections don’t view him as a long-term prospect. If he has one good one left, the R. B. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding will be hard to beat, but that may be a big if. Big Scott Daddy, a first-off-the-claim play for J. Wong (26%), is re-equipped with blinkers and could be the most dangerous of the late threats. We’ll try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play in a race that should be handled with care.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Big Beauty; 3-All Dialed In
Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. Big Beauty has been away for nearly a year and returns for new trainer J. Sadler with a series of Los Alamitos workouts that should have her fit enough. Effective sprinting or routing and with a prior win over the local turf course, the daughter of Mr. Big picks up the barn’s main guy J. J. Hernandez and goes for a trainer that boasts superior stats with layoff runners. She’s clearly the top pick. All Dialed In tries grass for the first time and if she can duplicate her dirt form on the lawn she’ll will be quite dangerous. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, the S. McCarthy-trained filly has finished in the money in all five starts and should at least get a piece of it again today.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Settecento
Forecast: Settecento has very little to beat in this bottom-rung maiden claiming middle distance main track event and if it’s not him, it could be anybody, so let’s take a stand and make the lightly-raced gelding a win play and rolling exotic single. Runner-up in his debut at this level but then raised in class in his next two outings, the son of Congrats returns to the main track and beats this group with a repeat of any of his three career outings. On pure numbers, he’s a stick out.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-With This Vow
Forecast: Here’s the second logical single on the program. With This Vow earned a career top number when an excellent runner-up against a similar group at this distance on the main track. Today she switches back to the lawn, and both of her grass outings were solid, so we doubt the surface switch will matter and in fact it might help. In a race lacking in closers, the daughter of Broken Vow should be forwardly placed throughout and then be able to kick home when called upon.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Manitowish
Forecast: Manitowish won a waiver protected $16,000 claiming sprint in late March in strong fashion while earning a speed figure that is considerably stronger than par and one that is good enough to beat this tougher restricted (nw-3) $20,000 field. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has a good stalking style and the ability to produce a second move when set down, so with J. Hernandez riding him back and a bullet workout (:46.4h) at San Luis Rey Downs since raced the son of Carpe Diem looks solid. He’s our third consecutive win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 11-Split the Double; 8-Red Diamond
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the seventh race, a slalom event for first-level allowance fillies and mares. Split the Double looks intriguing. She shows the always-popular route-to-sprint angle and a preference for sprint races, so we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained filly to settle in the second flight outside and then explode crossing the dirt track. The English-bred filly is strong in the speed figure department, shows a healthy work tab for her first outing since mid-March, and catches a pace flow that should allow J. J. Hernandez to pick a preferred position during the early stages. Red Diamond is a tad slower on numbers than Split the Double but is improving with experience and appears set to produce another forward move after finishing a solid second in a similar affair over the flat course. The bulk of our action will go to Split the Double, but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 10-Dick Best; 5-Bag’s Gold
Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for California-bred runners looks borderline inscrutable, so the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. For small ticket players, you can try to survive and advance using just the two listed above. Dick Best Bag’s Gold didn’t run badly in his debut when a willing third at this level last month. He adds Lasix and can be expected to be fitter and stronger with that race behind him. Look for him to be doing his best work from off the pace.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 9-Eddie’s New Dream; 5-Keyflower; 3-Canoodling
Forecast: Eddie’s New Dream has made a lucrative living cleaning up on state-bred competition but she’s good enough to act with open company as well, and in her present form the daughter of Square Eddie rates a big look in this year’s edition of the Wilshire S.-G3 for fillies and mares over a mile on grass. Equally effective sprinting or routing, the B. Cecil-trained filly was an extra game winner over previously unbeaten Becca Taylor in the Irish O’Brien S. down the Hill last time out and a similar effort today should be good enough. Keyflower shortens to a mile, exits the tougher Santa Ana S.-G3, and will be dangerous from off the pace. She tends to find trouble but with clear sailing today the French-bred filly will pose a serious threat in the final furlong. Canoodling has races that put her in the hunt, including her win in the listed Megahertz S. over this course and distance two races back. She is capable of being a strong pace presence if allowed to show her natural speed.
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