Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races. It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: B
Use: (in order of preference): 11-Crosby Beach; 7-Lottery Pick; 12-Picota
Forecast: As this is penned, we are going to assume that the races will remain on turf (rain was expected in the area Thursday through Saturday). We’ll have an update Sunday morning if there are any surface switches. In a 2-year-old maiden mile grass event that projects to have moderate early fractions, Crosby Beach has a chance to inherit the role as the controlling speed, just has he did last month in a similar event at Del Mar. The juvenile son of Gormley set legitimate fractions, led the way into the lane but then was worn down late while earning a par speed figure for the level. We’re anticipating another forward move today and if the M. McCarthy-trained colt gets over from his outside draw without having to be sent hard (as our pace projection anticipates) he’ll have every chance to lead throughout. Smaller ticket payers can take a stand and use him as a rolling exotic single.
Among those that can be considered as back-ups or savers are Lottery Pick, a race-shape aided fourth in the Cecil B. DeMille S.-G3 last time out but a major player with the return to the maiden ranks, and the first-time gelding Picota, in the frame in all three starts since being imported from England but arguably a bit too one-paced to be completely trusted.
Notable Workouts:
Wellswort (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, broke off a length in front of Picota (5f, 1:02.2h TT) for P. D’Amato and was head-and-head with workmate at the wire, final three furlongs in :36.4, not really asked much, decent enough. May be a tad better than first two local races show, recently gelding, wouldn’t mind seeing him tried on dirt.
Sweet Savant (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT) Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Broke off about four lengths in front of Noble Hearted (5f, 1:00h TT) in training track drill for P. Eurton and held sway through the lane to finish a half-length in front at the wire, mild coaxing only in the closing stages, splits of :24.4, :36.4 and 1:00.3 on our watches, useful drill for juvenile son of Twirling Candy. Route-type has some ability, but barn has won with just two of its last 49 first-time starters. Probably a down-the-road type at this stage.
Blackadder (December 13, Santa Anita, 5f, :58h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In blinkers, training track team drill for B. Baffert inside Adare Manor (same time), splits of :23.1, :34.2 and :58 flat, both let run most of the way while being ridden along through the lane with Blackadder a neck back at the wire while appearing slightly second best. Fast time for sure but keep in mind the training track is a much quicker surface than the main track. May show more early speed after breaking slowly in his most recent start but not quite sold on him just yet.
Khantaro d’Oro (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, worked outside Godsend (5f, 1:01.2h), breaking off a length back and then finishing about a length clear at the wire, final half mile in :23.3 and :48.2 while under strong hand urging through the lane (galloped out far in front). Juvenile by Kantharos is unlike his sire who was very quick; this ridgeling is a one-paced grinding router and probably needs to be close to a moderate early pace to have his best chance.
Picota (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, broke off a length in front of Wellswort (5f, 1:02.3h TT) for P. D’Amato, and wound up head-and-head the wire, neither one asked much but looking solid, final three furlongs in :36.3. Lacks acceleration and his speed figures have stagnated, but at least he’s finished in the money in all three starts since being imported from England. Now a gelding, so that may help.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:33 PT Grade: X
Single (in order of preference): 1-Escape Route
Forecast: Escape Route (TOC=3/5; ML=7/5) has been stuck on seconds (three times) since winning a highly-rated starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar in early August but his numbers continue to rise and last time out (missed by a neck) the son of Hard Spun earned a career-top 97 Beyer fig, which is eight points better than par for this first-level allowance condition. With the switch to F. Prat (powerful 26% for this barn), the M. Glatt-trained colt shouldn’t have an issue with his rail draw in a small, six-runner field, projecting to settle in the second flight and then having his chance from the quarter pole home.
In the same race Escape Route exits, Sumo (TOC=9/1; ML=9/5 was knocked down to the 7/5 favorite from a cozy outside draw and has absolutely no excuse after enjoying an ideal, in-the-clear stalking trip. His runner-up effort to Triple Tap two runs back seemed decent at the time but we’re thinking it may have been something of a mirage. The analytics don’t like him, either, so for us he’s a play against as the 9/5 morning line second choice.
Notable Workouts:
Escape Route (December 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, solo main track drill for M. Glatt, splits of :24.1 and :48 flat, urged some through the lane, okay work, nothing great. Seems to save his best for the afternoon, never off the board in six starts with rising speed figures and still has all of his conditions.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Lava Lane; 6-Nazuna; 7-She’s Devoted; 4-Honor America
Forecast: This Hillside Turf Course sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares came up contentious and looks to be stronger than par for the level. Several will be trying it for the first time but have the proper style for the course, including our strong top value pick based on our analytics, Lava Lane (TOC=6/5; ML=6-1) . The daughter of Unusual Heat was visually quite impressive winning a state-bred affair at Del Mar last month, accelerating when room developed in mid-stretch to win going away with a turn of foot that makes her ideally suited for this unique layout. She’s trained well since, and with an extra furlong and a half to work with today she’s very likely to make some serious noise in the final furlong.
Nazuna (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) sprinted quite well overseas during her juvenile campaign but has two-turned in each of her last six starts. Armed with the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle, the Irish-bred filly picks up J. Ortiz and seems likely to make a run for it from well off the pace. A nice recent half mile breeze (see below) tells us she’s doing well.
The San Luis Rey Downs-based She’s Devoted (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) appeared to find five furlongs a bit too sharp when closing well but too late in a similar event at Del Mar last month. It was her first start in 10 months, so she’s likely to produce a forward move with that race behind her and today’s extra distance. She’s a strong fit on speed figures, and though sparingly raced with some issues she could develop for R. Baltas if she can stay sound and string together some races.
Price players may want to find room on their ticket for Honor America (TOC=15-1; ML=20-1) , an Into Mischief filly trying grass and removing blinkers for the first time. She looked nice in a recent breezing training track drill (see below) and may find herself loose on the lead during the early stages.
Notable Workouts:
Lava Lane (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
In company inside Prince Abama (same time) for P. D’Amato and was under mild coaxing through the lane to be even but a tad the best while earning a strong final time and finishing with something left. Loved her last win, most effective as a late-running turf sprinter and has the style to excel on the Hillside Course.
Noble Hearted (December 18, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Broke off four lengths behind Sweet Savant (5f, 1:00.3h TT) in training track drill for P. Eurton, engaged that one entering the lane but then finished about a half-length back at the wire while being ridden a bit through the lane, appearing slightly second best with yet-to-race maiden juvenile. Was hoping for a bit better, sort of a one-paced type.
Honor America (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h TT). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
No blinkers, breezing in solo training track drill for Ruis, ears up and just galloping through the lane, final three furlongs in :36.4. Probably can improve without blinkers but is still seeking her niche on the local circuit. Maiden win was nice but the other four starts, not so much.
Nazuna (December 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Solid half mile drill for turf specialist on the main track while even (and going the easier of the two) with Kazan (4f, :49.4h) for L. Powell. Maintains her form in maintenance drill; didn’t get the best of runs in local bow and has room for improvement. Form suggests she may prefer to sprint.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:37 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 5-Elector; 6-Shaaz
Forecast: Maiden races for 3-year-olds this time of the year don’t usually contain two first-time starters that appear to have major stakes potential but that’s the case with Elector and Shaaz in the field of six that also includes Beholder’s first foal, the Uncle Mo colt Q B One and B. Baffert’s “other” entrant Hopkins, a fast-working son of Quality Road colt that brought $900,000 as a yearling. Make no mistake, Hopkins can run, and if you'd like to include him in rolling exotic play. go right ahead. However, the first two mentioned above are the ones we'll give closest attention to.
Elector is a son of Constitution that was very impressive in a string of workouts last winter before being stopped on and has returned to pick up where he left off in his a.m. drills. The J. Sadler-trained sophomore appears to be loaded with quality, lands F. Prat, and a recent bullet six furlong workout in 1:13 flat (see below) should have him fit enough.
Shaaz, a $1.1 million purchase at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale in 2020, clearly has had some physical problems but there’s no denying his raw talent. In his most recent workout, the Uncle Mo colt was even but best with the undefeated Malibu S.-G1 entrant Triple Tap (see below), verifying the immense talent he displayed in previous drills. If there’s one concern, it’s that he’s shown a tendency to lug in on occasion and can be difficult to ride (by comparison, Elector is completely straightforward) so of the two we’ll give Elector the edge on top but include both in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Hopkins (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.3hg). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In blinkers, gate drill inside Uncle Magic (same time) for B. Baffert and looked very good although going a few ticks slower than given on our watches, splits of :23.1, :35 flat and :47.1, mild restraint most of the way, very nice drill while slightly in front when eased up. Seems fit, appears to have plenty of gate zip and is very likely to live and well-meant in his debut based on this drill and those before it.
Q B ONE (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Broke off a few lengths in front of Missy P. (7f, 1:25h) in a very tough match up for a first-time starter and proved no match for that talented filly in the final furlong, very late changing leads while continuing out to the 7/8 pole several lengths behind at the end under urging, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.3, 1:13 flat, tiring late, up in 1:27 flat. Uncle Mo colt from Beholder certainly doesn’t strike us as a win-early type.
Elector (December 18, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Caught him last month in this team drill with Run Snappy (same time), severe restraint early and never really asked much late while head-and-head at the wire, splits of :22.4 and :47.3 on our watches while getting geared up again (had trained very impressively last winter before being stopped on). Haven’t seen his last four drills on video but son of Constitution appears to have a ton of natural ability and should be plenty fit by now. It’ll likely take a very good colt to outrun him.
Shaaz (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:12.4h). Grade: A-
View Workout Video
Brought $1.1 million at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale in May of 2020 and looked the part in this drill while even but best outside undefeated (and Malibu S.-G1-bound) Triple Tap, splits of :34.4, :59.4 and 1:12.4 over deepish main track, strong restraint down the backstretch before finishing under a hold while wanting to lug in a bit through the lane, a head in front at the wire. Tons of talent but isn’t an easy ride; no telling what he might become if he can overcome his quirkiness in the p.m. Obviously has had problems but is plenty fit by now.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Hit the Road; 2-Friar’s Road; 6-Red Storm Risen
Forecast: Hit the Road (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5) was a vet scratch the morning of the Breeders’ Cup Mile and didn’t breeze again for three weeks, so while his recent tab has been steady (four properly-spaced drills) there’s a possibility that the D. Blacker-trained colt may be a race away. He’s also been a miler throughout his career and this race will be his first over nine furlongs. That said, the son of More Than Ready clearly is the class of this year’s edition of the San Gabriel S.-G1 and his form over the Santa Anita turf track (four wins in six starts) certainly qualifies him as a true “horse for course.” It’s difficult to judge his fitness, as he never been much of a worker on dirt (see below), but we’ll put him on top (but not single him) under the assumption that he’s reasonably fit and ready.
Friar’s Road (TOC=5-1; ML=5/2) is a lightly-raced four-turning-five (11 starts) and may still have some improvement in him. A respectable third in the marathon Hollywood Turf Cup-G2 last month, the son of Quality Road arguably ran his best race when third (beaten a head) in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 over the Santa Anita lawn two races back. The M. McCarthy-trained colt switches to J. Ortiz and hopefully won’t be given too much to do in a race that projects to have soft early splits.
Red Storm Risen (TOC=5-1, ML=4-1) primarily has performed in conditioned allowance races but he did finish an okay fourth against essentially this level of competition here in the City of Hope Mile-G2 during the fall season. He’ll either be on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position (behind Bob and Jackie) but in either scenario should have his chance to build on his career-top recent overnight win at Del Mar that earned him another chance to tackle graded stakes foes. Toss him in somewhere.
Notable Workouts:
Hit The Road (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In company outside Quick Finish (same time) for D. Blacker, breaking off a length behind and then finishing a long neck back at the wire while being niggled at (workmate breezing), splits of :24 flat, :35.2 and 1:00 flat. Okay work, nothing more, but is a gras specialist and has never looked like much when working on dirt. Was scratched out of the Breeders’ Cup Mile and then didn’t work for almost a month, so it’s hard to be sure how cranked up he is for his first start in nearly three months.
Red Storm Risen (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Broke off a few lengths behind Gregory’s Pride (5f, 1:00.1h TT) and was quite keen under stout restraint during the early stages, remained under a tight hold entering the lane but then came off the bridle ever so slightly in the closing stages to win up a neck back at the wire, splits of :24.1, :36 flat and :59.3 for P. D’Amato. Never an easy ride but is a versatile type than win on the lead or from off the pace. Moves into stakes company again in the Sam Gabriel S.-G2.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:40 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Hot Rod Charlie; 5-Eight Rings
Forecast: We gave Hot Rod Charlie (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) a real chance to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and while he was never going to beat Knicks Go, we’re convinced he could have finished second had he not been buried on the deep rail every step of the way. Since then, the high-class son of Oxbow has done everything asked of him in the morning (see below) while preparing for this race and then a subsequent trip to Dubai, so we’re anticipating no excuses with a pace-prompting/stalking trip in this year’s renewal of the San Antonio S.-G2 over a mile and one-sixteenth.
Eight Rings (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) had every chance when enjoying a soft trip in the Native Diver S.-G3 at Del Mar last month but came off the bridle when it mattered and weakened to wind up a disappointing third behind two others entered in this field, Azul Coast and Kiss Today Goodbye. We’re expecting better today. The son of Empire Maker shortens up a half-furlong, removes blinkers (broke his maiden easily in his debut without the hood) and continues to shine in the a.m., easily outworking Azul Coast (see below) just six days ago. The B. Baffert-trained colt, a Grade-1 winner over this track and distance as a 2-year-old, may be able to take this field a long way if not respected on the front end.
Notable Workouts:
Express Train (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Parnelli (5f, 1:00.2h) and went on by in the closing stages to be a neck in front at the wire without undue pressure, splits of :24 flat, :36.1 and 1:00.1 on our watches, solid drill as usual for J. Shirreffs. Not always dependable in the afternoon but seems in good shape at the present and should fire a good shot in the San Antonio S.-G2. Most effective when relatively close to a moderate pace, always has been kind of a grinder.
Hot Rod Charlie (December 19, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:27.2h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Deepish track, so the final time wasn’t fancy, but the D. O’Neill-trained colt appeared on top of his game in this team drill with Nothngoodcomseasy (5f, 1:02.2h), breaking off a few lengths behind and then inhaling that one inside the furlong pole before continuing out to the seven furlong pole and then easing up at the three-quarters, splits of :24.2, :36.3, 1:01.3, 1:13.4 and 1:27.2, mostly on his own. Got stuck on the deep rail in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and got mired down; certainly capable of better and is the one to beat in the San Antonio S.-G2.
Eight Rings (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Scheduled to remove blinkers in the San Antonio S.-G2 but wore them in this extra sharp five furlong main track drill for B. Baffert while clearly best inside Azul Coastt (5f, :59.2h), splits of :35 flat, :59 flat and 1:11.4 while continuing out to seven furlong pole under light coaxing only, extra sharp. Had no excuse in the Native Diver S.-G2 at Del Mar (perhaps found nine furlongs too far) but can bounce back, especially if he can establish the lead without undue pressure.
Azul Coast (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Outside Eight Rings (5f, :59h) to the top of the lane but then couldn’t stay with him and finished a couple of lengths behind at the wire despite being ridden out. Managed to defeat workmate in Native Diver S.-G2 at Del Mar last month but was no match here. Expected better, question mark, may not be at his best over the Santa Anita main track.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 8-Beyond Brilliant; 4-Zoffarelli
Forecast: Beyond Brilliant (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) is a perfect three-for-three when he’s able to establish the pace and zero-for-six when he can’t, so unless the talented but enigmatic son of Twirling Candy can get over from his outside draw and outrun the speedy Cane Creek Road before the field hits the clubhouse turn, he’ll be no sure thing to duplicate his Hollywood Derby-G1 10-1 upset victory under the conditions of today’s Santa Anita Mathis Mile. This one mile grass event restricted to 3-year-olds certainly will present quicker fractions than he got away at Del Mar but if he’s amicable to settling just off the pace and then kicking home, he could easily win again from a field that isn’t quite as strong as the one he just beat. The J. Shirreffs-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m. (see below), so we’ll put him on top.
For players seeking a price, Zoffarelli (TOC=8-1; ML=10-1) should be given a close look. The Irish-bred gelding has been victimized in most of his U.S. races by poor trips, traffic trouble, or race shapes that work against his closing style, so we’re willing to toss him in and hope he enjoys a clean journey. The J. Mullins-trained Irish-bred sophomore looked good in a recent training track breeze (see below) and has finished first or second in seven of 11 career starts, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth using on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Tarantino (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, worked inside Stilleto Boy (5f, :59.2h), breaking off about three lengths in front and then finishing head-and-head at the wire under some urging (workmate breezing), splits of :24.2, :35.4 and :59.3 on our watches. Not bad, but was hoping for better, perhaps he’s more comfortable on turf or synthetic.
Zoffarelli (December 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.3h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Solo training track drill for J. Mullins, easy early and then strong through the lane, final three furlongs in :13 flat and :36.3, never really asked much. Looks good, due for some luck in the afternoon after a series of less-than-ideal trips.
Beyond Brilliant (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Solo five furlong main track drill for Shirreffs, breezing throughout, final half mile in :24.3 and :49.1 while holding his edge. Most effective on the front end so far (all three of his win have been gate-to-wire) but is a developing type and may be able to stalk and pounce if the race flow demands.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:44 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Missy P., 4-Private Mission; 3-Kalypso; 7-Livingmybestlife
Forecast: This year’s edition of the La Brea S.-G1 may be the most challenging race to handicap on the 11-race card. The morning line favorite (8/5) Private Mission may be vulnerable, while comebackers Kalypso and Missy P. could easily be better types now than when last seen. The analytics give no love to Missy P. (TOC=10-1; ML=5/2), but we faith. According to a story by Jay Privman in DRF, she was sent to the sidelines last spring with a breathing problem and subsequently had tie-back surgery, so we’re hopeful she can duplicate the 90 Beyer speed figure that she earned when winning her debut last March. He recent workouts indicate she’s lost none of her speed, and the fact that trainer R. Mandella returns her in a Grade-1 event (even though she still has all of her conditions) is a very strong sign of confidence. There’s plenty of speed signed on, so we’re expecting she’ll enjoy a second flight trip with a legit chance to wear down the leaders in the final furlong.
Private Mission (TOC=2-1; ML=8/5) set suicidal splits in the B.C. Distaff-G1 and stopped to a walk but today against her own age group and backing up to seven furlongs the B. Baffert-trained filly could very well return to winning form. Her sprint numbers are solid but hardly make her a standout, so while we respect her and will use her, she doesn’t really have to win at what probably will be a shorter price than deserved.
Kalypso (TOC=10-1; ML=5-1 is another layoff runner being cold-watered by our analytics, but we’ll still give her a look. Always genuine and consistent when she’s kept around one corner, the so-called “other” Baffert is a two-time stakes winner over the Santa Anita main track and has worked well enough to be fit and ready.
Livingmybestlife (TOC=9/2; ML=5-1 lands the cozy outside post and gives regular jockey J. Hernandez the option to pop and go or stalk and pounce. However, the winner of four of seven career starts will need to produce a career best effort to beat a field of this quality.
Notable Workouts:
Kalypso (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Solo main tack drill for B. Baffert, :36 flat from the three furlong pole to the wire while working well off the rail and breezing throughout. Seems to have retains all of her speed, been away since April but seems pretty fit.
Private Mission (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.3h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Much best over Varda (5f, :59.2h), :24.3 to the wire and then galloping out to the seven furlong pole in :37.1. Looked fine though perhaps not as impressive as the blazing final time might indicate. Returns to sprinting in the La Brea S.-G1, wonder if she might be most comfortable over a route of ground.
Missy P. (December 19, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Broke off a couple of lengths behind maiden Q B One (6f, 1:13h), engaged that one quickly while in hand and then was much the best while traveling out to the seven furlong pole, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.2, 1:12.2 and 1:25.3 on our watches, a few ticks slower than given but strong, nonetheless. Been away since June but seems to be returning in good shape. Always trains really well.
Livingmybestlife (November 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Caught her about a month ago in this solo main track drill, final half mile in :23.1 and :48 flat, strictly on her own. Maintains her form, should get tested in graded stakes company next time out.
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RACE 9: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Ultimate Hy; 1-Fantail
Forecast: After perusing her past performance chart, we were surprised to learn that Ultimate Hy (TOC=5-1; ML=4-1) has never sprinted in eight career starts. She gets her chance today. Beaten a neck when second with a career top speed figure in her most recent start at Del Mar in early November, the B. Heap-trained filly prefers to settle early and blast home late and given the type of late kick she can produce over a distance of ground it seems reasonable to expect that her turn of foot will be even more effective down the hill. An easy, healthy series of recent workouts (see below) should have her primed for another forward move, so with regular pilot D. Van Dyke staying aboard we’re expecting this California-bred filly to be difficult to contain in the final furlong.
Fantail (TOC=8/5; ML=5/2) is a non-winner in six starts since being imported from England, though she certainly ran a winning race when nosed out in a turf sprint here over the flat course in late October. A strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs in the interim should have her primed for a major effort, and with the F. Prat/R. Baltas team hitting at a terrific 28% this year with a large sample size she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just these two, with preference on top to Ultimate Hy.
Notable Workouts:
Ultimate Hy (November 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Breezing through the lane in solo training track move late last month, final quarter mile in a sharp :23.3. Has never sprinted but has the turn of foot that should be quite effective shortening up. Would love to see her down the hill.
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RACE 10: Post: 3:49 PT Grade:
Single: 5-Flightline
Forecast: Flightline (TOC=4/5; ML=4/5), a runaway winner by a combined 26 lengths in his first two starts while earning speed figures in both races that would have easily won this year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1, moves into graded stakes company for the first time and is certain to be the odds-on favorite to take the class hike in stride. A strong, powerful, athletic and agile colt that already has shown the versatility to win on the lead or from a stalking position, the J. Sadler-trained colt has looked terrific as always in recent morning workouts and catches a field that should allow him to dictate the pace flow in any which way he desires. Though today’s seven-eighths trip will be a furlong farther than he’s yet to travel, the extra distance shouldn’t be any issue at all. Anything less than another epic performance will be something of a letdown.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint-G1 runner-up Dr. Schivel (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) should be able garner enough votes to win the Eclipse Award in the Sprint Division if he can upset the favorite. He’ll certainly deserve the title if he can, but as genuine and consistent as the M. Glatt-trained son of Violence has been, Flightline is a different kind of animal.
American Pharoah’s half-brother Triple Tap (TOC=10-1; ML=5-1), like Flightline a son of Tapit and unbeaten in two starts, has the proper style for seven furlongs but the analytics aren’t bullish on his chances. If he’s going to be a graded stakes type of colt, it’ll probably be down the road over a distance of ground.
Notable Workouts:
Dr. Schivel (December 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B
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Solo half mile main track drill, niggled at slightly through the lane but looked fine, splits of :12 flat, :23.3 and :47.4 on our watches. Lost a heartbreaker in the B.C. Sprint-G1; faces an arguably tougher assignment today.
Flightline (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: A-
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F. Prat up, a little late changing leads through the lane but was merely galloping every step of the way, effortlessly covering the ground with splits of :23.1, :35 flat and 1:00.1. Plenty fit and ready to resume his brief but spectacular career in the Malibu S.-G1.
Triple Tap (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.4h). Grade: B
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In blinkers, broke off a half-length in front inside highly-regarded yet-to-start maiden Shaaz (same time) for B. Baffert and was slightly second best at the wire while being ridden a bit in the closing stages (workmate under a hold while trying to drift in a bit), splits of :34.4, :59.4 and 1:12.4 while traveling out to the seven furlong pole under some late coaxing. Half-brother to American Pharoah is undefeated in two starts but the form really hasn’t quite held up. Needs to step forward in the Malibu S.-G2.
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RACE 11: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Going Global; 7-Burgoo Alley; 4-Nicest
Forecast: If she hadn’t been being blocked at a critical stage of the San Clemente S.-G2 in which she finished second, Going Global (TOC=4/5; ML=9/5 would be undefeated from seven starts since being purchased and imported from Ireland. Four of her wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course, and while today’s American Oaks-G1 will be her first try over 10 furlongs, the extra distance shouldn’t bother her in the least. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore continues to train in exceptional fashion so there’s no reason to believe she won’t fire another winning shot. She’s 9/5 on the morning line but we suspect will go at least a couple of points lower than that.
Her stable mate, Burgoo Alley (TOC=5/2; ML=6-1), is another that is unproven at this mile and one-quarter distance, but she’s certainly fond of the Santa Anita grass track, having won twice including the Autumn Miss S.-G3 during the fall season. Her speed figures have risen in every one of her six North American starts, and she’ll probably need another significant boost again today, but a series of impressive recent workouts indicate she hasn’t reached her peak just yet. She likely to be stalking or pressing the pace and we’ll find out if she can stay the trip when the pressure is turned on at the head of the lane.
At 8-1 on the morning line, the European Group-1 placed Nicest (TOC=15-1; ML=8-1 is worth including on your ticket as well. An excellent third vs. older fillies and mares in the mini-marathon Red Carpet H.-G3 at Del Mar last month, the daughter of American Pharoah is a tad shy in the speed figure department but is another that clearly has room for further improvement.
Notable Workouts:
Going Global (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: A-
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Broke off a long way behind Bacchanalia (5f, 1:02.2h TT) and then inhaled here workmate through the lane in very impressive fashion for P. D’Amato, splits of :24.4, :36.3 and 1:00.4, plenty left without being asked for anywhere near her best. Ready for another super effort.
Burgoo Alley (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Annaghlasa (5f, 1:01h TT) and finished a long neck in front at the wire while in hand throughout and with plenty left, splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:00.1 on our watches, faster than given and appearing sharp as a tack. Gets the acid test in the American Oaks-G2 and on paper has to beat her stable mate, Going Global.
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