Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-She’s a Joker; 8-Queen of Pompeii
Forecast: She’s a Joker has done all of her preparatory work at San Luis Rey Downs, so she has avoided the xbtv.com camera but we did catch a glimpse of her a year ago at the OBS April Sale, where she breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds and looked quite good doing it. Purchase through the ring for $110,000, the daughter of Practical Joke out of a half-sister to multiple champion sprinter Roy H makes her debut in a moderate California-bred maiden turf sprint for fillies and mares and appears well-spotted for a major effort for a barn that has superior stats (with a small sample) with first-time starters. At 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Queen of Pompeii may be the best of those that have raced. Away since last summer, the daughter of Temple City hit the board in both of her prior outings over the local lawn when rallying from off the pace and should appreciate today’s extended sprint trip. She has the blinkers off angle that we like and retains J. Hernandez, who was aboard in all three of her previous outings. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to She’s a Joker.
Notable Workouts:
Baker Kait (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01hg). Grade: B-
Did okay without being asked for her best while even but slightly best with Classic Dr Al (same time) for D. O’Neill, splits of :25 flat, :36.4, :48.2 and 1:01 flat, not fast early but decent late, though failing to change leads after straightening for home. Has some run, may be worth some consideration vs. moderate state-bred foes in her debut.
View Workout Video
Margot’s Girl (April 7, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: B-
Much best over Norah’s Princess (same time) for C. Lewis in team gate drill, able to go faster if permitted but never being asked for speed, splits of :24.3, :36.1 and :48.4 on our watches, slower than given but not bad from a visual standpoint. Seems fair fit, seeking a soft state-bred sprint.
View Workout Video
Summer Lake (March 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: C+
Solo gate work for B. Heap, stumbled at the start but got into stride and went under mild urging while much slower than given on our watches, splits of :24.4, :36.1, :48.1 and 1:01.2, fair to moderate while very late changing leads. Let’s see one first.
View Workout Video
Queen of Pompeii (April 1, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B
No blinkers, clearly best over Team Concept (5f, 1:00.4hg) in gate drill for C. Gaines, coasting throughout while earning splits of :24.2, :36 flat, :48 flat and 1:00.2, plenty left late. Away since last summer but is coming back well, seems fit.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-There Goes Harvard
Forecast: There Goes Harvard is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite in this five-runner first-level allowance optional claiming main track router and probably will win, though at the price he won’t be offering any real wagering value. He has one win from nine career starts to go along with seven seconds/thirds, so the son of Will Take Charge, who has failed to deliver the goods the three times he left as the public choice, may not be one to trust. That said, a repeat of his last outing – a runner-up effort while nearly five lengths clear of the rest – should be more than good enough to handle this modest task. You can use him as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Worse Read Sanchez
Forecast: In a race loaded with front-running or pace-pressing types, Worse Read Sanchez should have every opportunity to produce the last run in this California-bred first-level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. With a distinct edge in the speed figure department and a prior win over the course, ‘Sanchez seems likely to go lower than his morning line of 5/2, though we suggest you take it if you can get it. The D. O’Neill-trained colt will get the patient ride he requires from regular pilot M. Gutierrez, and with fractions that are sure to compliment his style the son of Square Eddie should be along in time as a logical rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 7-Union Train; 3-Q B One
Forecast: Union Train was on the verge of developing into a real nice colt last fall before he had to be stopped on, and if returns as well as he left this promising sophomore should be a major player in this competitive two-turn main track maiden event. An excellent second in a strong dirt miler at Del Mar last November, the J. Shirreffs-trained colt has trained well enough to be fit and ready and returns with Lasix for a barn that has solid stats with layoff runners. He’ll have to avoid being forced wide from his outside draw, but if he can get over and secure a good stalking spot, the son of Union Rags should have every chance. Q B One might be coming around now that he’s been gelded. A willing but non-threatening third in a tougher maiden heat last month, the son of Uncle Mo from champion mare Beholder lacks tactical speed but should be running on late, and with a projected pace flow that should be faster than par he could make some noise close home at 8-1 on the morning line. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Union Train.
Notable Workouts:
Got Thunder (April 9, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, second best in a three-runner team drill with Ce Ce (5f, :58h, tons best) and Queen Goddess (5f, 1:00.3h), ridden through the lane to finish three lengths behind after the trio broke off head-and-head, splits for the Arrogate colt in :22.3, :33.4 and :58.3, extremely fast time but appearing to lose some of his punch late. Always has trained like a good colt but has been a major disappointment in the afternoon. Might show more speed with the addition of the hood but we’re not convinced the equipment change will otherwise provide all that much improvement.
View Workout Video
Union Train (April 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Just coasting through the lane to be even but slightly best over Angel of Freedom (same time), final three furlongs in :37 flat, able to go much faster if asked. Coming back very well for Shirreffs, has a chance to make a decent sort of 3-year-old.
View Workout Video
_____________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Unfaithful Ways; 8-Spring Spinning
Forecast: Unfaithful Ways missed by a neck in a similar turf miler last time out when benefitting from a race shape (fast early, slow late) that complimented her style. A similar effort today might be good enough, especially with a pace flow that once again should promote her closing style. She switches to J. Bravo, one of the stable’s “go to” riders, so at 5/2 on the morning line the daughter of Street Boss seems fairly logical. Spring Spinning was victimized by a disastrous start when a distant third sprinting on grass in her debut last month and seem sure to improve today with a race under her belt and today’s added distance. The daughter of Hard Spun makes a positive trainer switch to D. O’Neill and picks up J. Hernandez, plus she shows a bullet five furlong training track drill (:59 2/5) two weeks ago that catches the eye. Unfaithful Ways gets top billing but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 9-Take a Leap; 7-Bossy Soul
Forecast: Here’s a race that should be approached with some caution. Take A Leap, dropping to the bottom off a J. Wong claim after rallying too late as the favorite when second in a $12,500 sprint last month, stretches out again but must leave from the extreme outside post in this dirt miler for fillies and mares. Never worse than second in four career outings over the local main track, the seven-year-old mare can handle this assignment with anything close to her best effort but must avoid getting packed wide early. At 8/5 on the morning line, there really isn’t much wagering value to be found. Rolling exotic players should also find room on their ticket for Bossy Soul. Overmatched in state-bred allowance company last time out on turf, the S. Knapp-trained filly returns to her claim level and has a look off her strong third place effort behind Take a Leap over this track and distance two runs back.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Heathers Grey ; 5-New Heat
Forecast: Heathers Grey has been away since last July but she has looked quite good in morning workouts for trainer S. McCarthy and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip from her favorable rail draw – or perhaps even on the lead - in a race that projects to have soft early splits. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the veteran mare gets a break in the weights under bug boy D. Herrera and offers good wagering value at or near her morning line of 8-1. New Heat is a three-time winner over the local lawn and just earned a career top speed figure when closing against the grain to be willing second behind loose-on-the-lead winner Park Avenue. If she can get some help up front at this shorter one mile trip, the daughter of Unusual Heat will be heard from late.
Notable Workouts:
Heathers Grey (March 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B
Hard held most of the way while appearing quite sharp in solo half mile main track breeze for S. McCarthy, final three furlongs in :36.1. Freshened since last July and appears to be returning in fine fettle.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 8-Scary Fast Smile; 2-Gerlach’s
Forecast: Scary Fast Smile earned a career top number when trouncing similar state-bred first-level allowance optional claiming foes two races back but then bounced to the moon when a dull fourth at 6/5 in his most recent start against optional $50,000 claimers last month. Back at his winning level today, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding switches to bug boy D. Herrera to get a bit of a weight break, and if given the patient ride he prefers at this extended seven furlong sprint trip the son of Smiling Tiger should be capable of regaining his winning form. At 5/2 on the morning line, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Scary Fast Smile (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
Very easy early and breezing through the lane, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.3, quite nice for D. O’Neill. Disappointed last time out but appears ready to bounce back in a big way.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Dialing Scotty
Forecast: Dialing Scotty has done some excellent work in the morning leading up to her debut for C. Gaines and in this below average maiden turf sprint for California-bred fillies and mares the daughter of Dialed In looks ready to win at first asking. Though her workout times don’t jump off the page, she has done everything asked of her in the a.m. while always appearing to have plenty more to give if required. At an enticing 6-1 on the morning line, we’ll use here in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Dialing Scotty (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a couple of lengths behind Candybox (5f, 1:01.3h TT) and was under restraint through the lane to finish head-and-head, never asked at any stage, very nice while coming the final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.4. Looks fit, seems to have a good late turn of foot and should be live at first asking vs. state-bred foes.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
.svg){kind=logo}
