Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Current Mood; 2-Funny Feline
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a better-than-par first-level allowance extended sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Current Mood (TOC=7/2; ML=7/2) was a visually pleasing winner over this course and distance when breaking her maiden in her second career start and gives the impression that she has plenty of further improvement in her. The N. Drysdale-trained daughter of Flintshire was a bit green through the lane but drew clear with authority and without being asked for her best. Funny Feline (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and should return to the form that saw her easily dispose of maidens sprinting over the local lawn two races back. She will take them on the lead for as far as she can. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Current Mood.
Notable Workouts:
Funny Feline (May 14, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, ridden a bit through the lane while coming the final quarter mile in a solid :24.1. Failed to stay a mile last time out and should improve when shortened back to a sprint.
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Current Mood (May 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
Maintenance drill for N. Drysdale-trained filly in solo training track drill without being asked, very slow early but solid through the lane, splits of :25.4, :37.4 and 1:02.3 on our watches. Has room to improve with experience and distance.
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Ko Olina (May 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade: C+
No blinkers, fair-to-moderate solo gate work for L. Mendez, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat and :47.4 on our watches, ridden most of the way. Looks about the same as she did last year as a 2-year-old.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Fun to Dream
Forecast: This state-bred main track sprint for older fillies and mares came up unusually soft, save for the first-timer Fun to Dream, who appears to have some ability. The daughter of Arrogate has worked well enough (see below) to handle this modest group, and while we doubt she’s a quick type and a true sprinter, the S. McCarthy-trained sophomore should be able to find a way to handle this assignment. At or near her morning line price of 9/5, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single almost by default.
Notable Workouts:
Lady Maryann (May 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
Useful work, never really asked while tying in with Eddie’s New Dream (4f, :38h) and finishing down the lane inside of that one, final half mile on our watches in :23.2 and :48.2. Probably has a bit of improvement in her.
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Fun to Dream (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Even but perhaps a tad second best in company with Spooky Lady (same time) for S. McCarthy, splits of :12.1, :24.1, :48.2 and 1:00.3 on our watches from half mile pole to the seven furlong pole, mild coaxing only before galloping out well. Hard to say how quick she is; daughter of Arrogate seems like a one-paced type and most likely will do her best eventually over a distance of ground. Eligible to debut in a very soft spot vs. Cal-bred competition.
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Tracy Di Vicenzo (May 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: C+
Ridden pretty good through the lane to be doing her best, final half mile in :24.1 and :49.3. Was hoping to see a bit stronger finish. Seems about the same.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Carmelita’s Man
Forecast: Carmelita’s Man (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) returns to state-bred competition for the first time since last fall and catches a pace flow that projects to compliment his late running style. The veteran gelding finished an excellent second in a second-level allowance affair earlier this month while earning a career top speed figure, and a repeat of that performance today should allow the D. Pederson-trained son of Mucho Macho Man to wear down the leaders late in a race that should have quick early fractions. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s worth a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 5-Good With People; 4-Tigre Di Slugo; 2-Desmond Dess
Forecast: We’ll spread the fourth race, the Thor’s Echo S. for older sprinters, while preferring Good With People (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) on top and pressing with that in the various rolling exotics. Away since last August, the speedy son of Curlin to Mischief has been burning up the track at San Luis Rey Downs in recent workouts and having won his debut has proven he can fire a winning shot fresh. Drawn comfortably outside as the projected controlling speed, the R. Alvarado-trained colt is a fit on speed figures and should take command early and prove hard to catch. However, there are two others in the field that have winning credentials, as well. Tigre Di Slugo (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) finished second (in a field of four) behind Brickyard Ride in the Kona Gold S.-G3 in his first start in more than a year while earning a speed figure that is tops in the field. He lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late and will be the one to fear most in the final furlong. Desmond Doss (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) has a history of firing fresh and projects to be in a good stalking position behind the likely leader. He’s a little light in the speed figure department but has never been worse than second in four starts over the local main track and his trainer (S. Miyadi) has superior stats with layoff runners.
Notable Workouts:
Desmond Doss (May 21, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.4hg). Grade: B
Ridden aggressively through the lane and did well enough on the comeback trail for S. Miyadi while much the best over Catalon (5f, 1:02.3hg), splits of :24.4, :36.2, :48.2 and 1:13.4, a full second faster than given and looking decent enough. Generally runs better than he works and always has like the Santa Anita main track. Been away since last fall but has a history of running well fresh.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Smuggler’s Run
Forecast: Smuggler’s Run (TOC=3-1; ML=2-1) stretches out for the first time, and if he’s ever going to handle this nine furlong trip it’ll likely be in his first attempt. Making his first start since being transferred to the J. Sadler barn, the son of Straight Fire has Kitten’s Joy on the bottom side of his pedigree and therefore has the pedigree to handle two turns. Furthermore, he trains like a colt that will handle the added ground, so at 2-1 on the morning line and fresh from a sharp sprint score in the Echo Eddie S. he looks well-placed as a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Smuggler’s Run (May 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
Mildly ridden through the lane and then was asked out an extra furlong into the clubhouse turn, final half mile in :24.2 and :47.3, sharp late for new trainer J. Sadler. Should be capable of handling a distance of ground based on this drill. Has further improvement in him and can handle any surface.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:43 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Six Feet; 9-Bag’s Gold
Forecast: Six Feet has trained like a win-early type for R. Hanson and debuts in a modest maiden $50,000 state-bred claiming sprint that is begging to be won by a fresh face. The son of Dads Cap has been given a sufficient foundation to be fit and ready, with a recent gate work (see below) that was quicker than given especially catching the eye. Bag’s Gold had a fairly promising run in his debut last month, finishing with interest to be fourth, beaten less than three lengths after a rugged start. Subsequently scratched on May 1 and recording no works until two weeks ago, the son of Vronsky may have a condition question but he’s a first-time Lasix user with E. Maldonado riding him back, so we’ll make him a contender and include him in our rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Six Feet (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1hg). Grade: B
Went a couple of ticks faster than given and looked decent for a maiden-claiming type, splits of :23.2, :34.4 and :46.4 on our watches, ridden early and then under mild coaxing late to be a tad the best over Pass Interference (same time) for R. Hanson. Dads Cap gelding seems fit and deserves a close look in a modest affair.
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Disko Tribute (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade: C+
Ridden throughout inside Park City (same time) for D. Blacker and appeared a tad second best (workmate not asked much), in training track drill, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35.4., doing his best to the end. May improve but needs maiden claimers.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 4-Minister Shane; 7-Forgiving Spirit
Forecast: 4-Minister Shane exits a legitimate race for the level, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, and may be along in time if his improving pattern continues. A lightly-raced gelding from the C. Gaines barn, the son of Ministers Wild Cat projects to settle in the second flight and then have every chance to tag the speed from the quarter pole home. Forgiving Speed M graduated from the rail sprinting on turf last time out and did so with a good number. It was just his second career start, and his first since August, so the R. Alvarado-trained son of Shaman Ghost seems likely to produce a forward move and be tough right back. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Minister Shane.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Big Switch; 1-Rose Maddox
Forecast: Big Switch followed two very impressive victories to begin her career with a pair of substandard efforts, but she continues to impress in a.m. workouts so we’re expecting the J. Sadler-trained filly to regain her best form in her first try around two turns. The daughter of Mr. Big certainly is bred to handle the extra ground, so there should be no excuses today. On pure form, her morning line of 8/5 is justified. Rose Maddox missed at 40 cents on the dollar when trying to steal a purse up north two weeks ago but on her best day she is a major player against this group. Proven routing and with numbers that fit, the daughter of Grazen looks like the most dangerous of the late runners. We’ll prefer Big Switch on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Big Switch (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B
Much best outside Perfect Ice Storm (5f, 1:01.4h), splits of :11.4, :23.2, :48.1 and 1:01 flat on our watches while working from the three-eighths to the seven-eighths, mild coaxing only and looking good for J. Sadler. Was below her best from in her last two starts but appears ready to bounce back. Acts like she’ll enjoy a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Alice Marble; 6-Self Isolation
Forecast: Alice Marble is listed as the 4/5 favorite in today’s nightcap and looks it on paper after finishing a sharp runner-up in open company in the Monrovia S.-G2 down the Hillside Course last month. Versatile and genuine, the daughter of Grazen stretches out to a mile but should have no difficulty with the added distance. It’s possible she inherits the role as the controlling speed if that’s the strategy, but more likely she’ll settle into a stalking position and have every chance from there. For protection, you may want to include Self Isolation as a back-up or a saver. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the Square Eddie doesn’t quite match our top pick on pure numbers but if she can clear the field in the opening furlong with undue pressure she may get brave and never look back.
Notable Workouts:
Alice Marble (May 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B
Went a couple of ticks slower than given on our watches but looked quite nice for P. D’Amato, breaking off several lengths behind Ice Cold Gold (5f, 1:01.4h) and cruising on by approaching the wire while well in hand, splits of :12.2, :24.2, :36.2 and 1:01.2 before continuing out to the seven furlong pole in 1:14.2. Dead fit, looks good, can handle any surface and should be just as capable around two turns as she is sprinting.
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