Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Smokin Cheena; 5-Vegas Magic
Forecast: Let’s focus on the filly with a good race over the track, Smokin Cheena, in this five-furlong dash for 2-year-olds. A strong runner-up in a fairly quick race last month, the state-bred daughter of Smokem has every reason to step forward for a barn that has decent stats with the second-time starter angle, so unless there is a good thing among the newcomers, she seems fairly solid. Vegas Magic has trained the best of the debut runners and is worth including in rolling exotic play. The daughter of Good Magic probably won’t show her best stuff until the distances increase, but the D. O’Neill-trained filly could make some noise from off the pace. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Lt’s Choice (June 4, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: C+
Ridden most of the way in team gate drill inside for K. Desormeaux while second best with Bear Mountain (same time, a length in front when eased up after five furlongs) and Honey’s Hope (5f, 1:03.4hg), splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48.2 and 1:01.2 on our watches, moderate drill under the circumstances. Let’s see one first.
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She’s So Fancy (June 1, Santa Anita, 3f, :35.2hg). Grade: C+
Walked out of the gate, then rushed up to blow past an unidentified break-and-easer while displaying good zip for a juvenile, splits of :25.1, :37 flat and :49.3 for a full half mile on our watches, much slower than given (clockers didn’t account for slow break, most likely picked her up at the 5/8ths pole and tagged on :13 seconds). Stanford filly has talent but needs to leave with her field and that may be problematic in her upcoming debut.
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Vegas Magic (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Went slower than given but looked okay for D. O’Neill while much best over Roenick (5f, 1:02.1hg, off slowly, three lengths back when eased up), splits of :26 flat, :38 flat, :50 flat and 1:02.2 on our watches before galloping out to the wire in 1:15.4. Wasn’t asked at all early and picked up with some energy when let run in the final stages. Good Magic filly probably will be a distance type down the road.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-With This Vow
Forecast: With This Vow (TOC=3/5; ML=9/5) should beat this field but there is a question about her ability to step up and handle this nine-furlong distance. The pace projects to be soft, so if she can establish the running without pressure she might be able to hang on. We’ll put her on top in this five-runner affair but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she probably won’t be offering much wagering value.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Priano
Forecast: Priano (TOC=95; ML=5/2) was eased in a turf sprint in January and hasn’t been out since, so we’ll assume there was a reason for the poor performance. The son of Tiznow lands the cozy outside post, shows a healthy, steady series of workouts, and will be tough if he can repeat his Los Alamitos debut win from last December. The M. Glatt-trained colt is reunited with A. Cedillo and projects to be on or near the lead throughout, so at 5/2 on the morning line he’s a gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 8-Angelcents; 2-Dancing Crane
Forecast: Angelcents (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) specializes in these five-furlong turf sprints (she’s four-for-seven). Away since November, the daughter of Goldencents can fire fresh and if she’s anywhere close to her best she’ll most likely daylight this field. Dancing Cane (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) can stalk and pounce if necessary and that’s the likely strategy for the M. Glatt-trained daughter of Tapiture, who just won a first-level race over the local lawn last month with a gate-to-wire trip. She’s the one the analytics prefer. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Angelcents.
Notable Workouts:
Angelcents (April 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h). Grade: B
Haven’t seen her in the a.m. for a couple of months but back in April she appeared to have all of her speed, tearing off from the pole and then finishing on her own courage, final three furlongs in :11.1 and :36.2 while leaving Joe Don Looney (4f, :50.2h) far behind. Five-furlong specialist is very tough to catch when she’s on her game.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Gerlach’s; 4-Big Hand; 2-Gold Rush County
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this extended main track sprint for state-bred first-level allowance older horses. Gerlach’s (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) seems properly spotted to extend his winning streak to three. He has the ideal second flight, stalking style for this six and one-half furlong distance, and while his numbers are just average he is a genuine and consistent sort and likely to fire another big shot. Big Hand (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) gets off the rail and is better than his last race shows. A repeat of his clever maiden win two races back puts him right there. Gold Rush Candy (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) has trained well for his comeback, and while he’s tackling older today he may have upside that the others don’t. The lightly raced son of Danzing Candy returns with Lasix and always has been fairly well regarded.
Notable Workouts:
Gold Rush Candy (May 26, Santa Anita, 5f, :59hg). Grade: B
Decent gate drill for S. McCarthy while even but slightly best with Mastering (same time), splits of :24.1, :35.2, :47 flat and :59.3 on our watches, a few ticks slower than given but without need of undue urging. Seems to be coming back well after breaking his maiden in his second start last summer at Del Mar before being stopped on. Eligible to state-bred non-winners of two.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Connie Swingle; 1-Rose Dawson
Forecast: Connie Swingle (TOC=4/5; ML=5/2) was a thoroughly convincing winner over this course and distance last month and seems likely to score right back in this open allowance sprint for sophomore fillies. She has excellent tactical speed, can quicken when set down, and is likely to go lower than her morning line of 5/2. Her Phil D’Amato-trained stable mate, Rose Dawson (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1), is undefeated in two starts but hasn’t been out since winning the Cal Cup Oaks in January, so it’s possible she’s using this race as a tightener for a stretch-out. She did win sprinting in her debut, so she has to be respected. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Connie Swingle the logical top pick.
Notable Workouts: 5
Rose Dawson (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, late changing leads but did okay inside Ma France (same time), slow early, decent late without being asked much, final quarter mile in :24.2. Deep-closing daughter of Grazen is unbeaten in two starts including the Cal Cup Oaks in January, has never really been much of a worker.
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Blushing (June 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: C+
Pulled early and was getting out on the turn, then was quite erratic through the lane while being asked, splits of :24 flat and :49 flat to the wire before being allowed to gallop out to the seven-furlong pole in 1:02 and change. Was unbeaten in two starts in the French provinces last year but probably needs racing and experience on this much circuit.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Hooper; 3-High Connection
Forecast: We’ll zero in on the two S. McCarthy entrants in this year’s edition of the Affirmed S.-G3, with preference on top to recent maiden winner Hooper (TOC=4-1; ML=4-1. A fast, highly rated sprint winner last month, the son of Declaration of War should not have any difficultly with the stretch-out around two turns and we suspect he’ll have his best chance if sent from the rail to establish the running. We’re going to assume that leading rider J. Hernandez had his pick, and it may be significant that he jumps off Hooper to pilot High Connection (TOC=5/2; ML=2-1). Though disappointing as the 3/5 favorite in a first-level allowance miler last time out (a slow break cost him), the son of Connect continues to impress in the a.m. and should be given a chance to make amends.
Notable Workouts:
Hopper (June 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B-
Solo five furlong move, breezing to the top in :24 flat and :36 flat, was mostly in hand through the lane although nudged just a little late to finish up in 1:01 flat on our watches, slower than given but decent enough (always has been more willing when in company). Dam was a world class 12-furlong performer in her day (preferred the lead) so we suspect this colt will handle a distance of ground just fine using pace-pressing tactics.
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Doppelganger (June 4, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
In company with Newgrange (5f, :59.4h) and left that one five lengths behind in the final furlong, drawing away in sharp style while being ridden through the lane, splits of :23.3, :35 flat and :59 flat, quite not while flashing improvement over recent disappointing races. May be ready to perk up a bit, workmate was disappointing while losing his steam noticeably in the closing stages.
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High Connection (June 4, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
In blinkers, nice work without being asked much, final half mile in :23.3 and :47.3 for S. McCarthy. Disappointed at 3/5 in first-level allowance race after a runaway maiden sprint win. Probably will improve but needs to verify his initial (very favorable) impression next time out.
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Newgrange (June 4, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: C+
See Doppelganger, above,
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Fenestra; 3-Barristan The Bold
Forecast: Front-running Fenestra (TOC=7/5; ML=4-1) lost a toughie when nosed out in a similar turf sprint for starter allowance company and today he’ll have to negotiate an extra half furlong, but the V. Cerin-trained colt projects as the controlling speed once again and should be tough to catch with even the slightest amount of improvement. In the frame in six of seven career stats, the lightly raced six-year-old gelding is solid on numbers and the preferred pick on top. Barristan The Bold (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1) is a course specialist (three wins) and is the most dangerous of the closers. Fourth when beaten less than a length in the same race Fenestra exits, the English-bred gelding will be bearing down late, and with clear sailing could be tough to contain. Both should be used in rolling exotics play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Fenestra on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Affable; 5-Bold Endeavor; 2-Arkaan
Forecast: Here’s a spread affair for second-level allowance middle distance performers on dirt. Affable (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) was in too steep in the Shear Mile behind Royal Ship but even being beaten almost eight lengths the son of Flatter earned a career top speed figure. The M. Glatt-trained colt projects to enjoy a pace-stalking trip and have every chance from there. Glatt’s other starter, Bold Endeavor (TOC=7/2; ML=5-1), was rusty in his comeback when a distant fourth behind Defunded, who came out of the race to finish an excellent second in the Santa Anita Handicap-F1. He should be tighter and sharper today, so a forward move can be expected. b>Arkaan (TOC=4-1; ML=4-1) stretches out after a couple of sprints on grass and seems sure to employ front-running strategy. It’s questionable whether he really wants to run this far, but if not policed he could get brave.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-True Patriot
Forecast: True Patriot turned in a pleasing performance when second over this turf course in a similar maiden state-bred sprint for fillies and mares last month. She had a dream run from off the pace but kept to her task while grinding away to the wire, and with that race under her belt and today’s extra half-furlong to work with the daughter of Clubhouse Ride appears ready to win. Let’s take a stand and make her a straight play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 4-1.
Notable Workouts:
I’ll Take the Soup (May 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4hg). Grade: C+
Went slower than given and wasn’t impressive while proving best over Seven Exes (5f, 1:02hg), splits of :24.3, :36.2, :48.1 and 1:02 flat, rough changing leads entering the lane and losing his steam while winding up a couple of lengths clear of workmate. Square Eddie filly is a down the road through we suspect she can do a bit better on grass.
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