Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Cocktail Princess; 2-Ceiling Crusher
Forecast: Cocktail Princess received strong support on the tote (4/5) in her debut but after cutting out the fractions weakened late to finish second wile more than five lengths clear of the rest in a fast race for babies in late April. With the benefit of that bit of experience behind her, the daughter of Stay Thirsty should be hard to beat today unless one of the first-timers pops up. Ceiling Crusher could be that one. The daughter of Mr. Big was fairly impressive in a recent gate work (see below) to indicate she’s fit and ready for L. Mendez, who always is dangerous with first-time starting juveniles. With leading rider J. Hernandez taking the call, she has the look of a live item.
Notable Workouts:
Ceiling Crusher (May 28, Santa Anita, 3f, :35hg). Grade: B+
Went quicker than given and looked rather nice without being asked much, splits of :23.2 and :34.3 before coasting out a half in :46.4 while clearly best over Rose Girl (same time, a half-length back when eased up). Daughter of Mr. Big looks like a decent type of Cal-bred prospect for L. Mendez and should be live at first asking.
View Workout Video
One Smokin’ Rita (May 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4hg). Grade: C+
Much best over Westerberg (4f, :49.4hg) while being ridden along most of the way, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and :48.4, okay drill, nothing great. May want to see one first.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Comradery; 7-Doncic; 5-Explosive
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass this starter allowance six furlong turf sprint for older horses. Comradery (TOC=5/2; ML=6-1), first-off-the-claim for S. Knapp, shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and moves to a restricted (nw-3) starter’s allowance affair, which is softer than the straight $50,000 seller that he exits. A two time winner over the local lawn, he retains top rider J. Hernandez and should be doing his best work late. Doncic (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2), second in his last pair with solid numbers, hasn’t always been generous under pressure in the final furlong but projects to enjoy another ideal stalking trip and should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Explosive (TOC=8-1; ML=3-1) lacked room in the lane and really couldn’t be ridden vs. similar two races back and then stretched out to a mile while being brought back in 13 days and finished second behind an easy pace-setting winner. He is being brought back on short rest again (two weeks) while dropping back to a sprint, and we actually prefer him at this one-turn trip, so in an open affair the D. O’Neill-trained gelding is worth tossing in.
Notable Workouts:
Doncic (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B+
Went off quickly and finished under a hold in sharp half mile breeze for V. Cerin, final three furlongs in :11.1 and :35.1. Maintains his edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 3-Maxim Moment; 4-Amadmadworld
Forecast: Maxim Moment was more than six lengths clear of the rest when runner-up in a better-than-par maiden-claiming sprint two weeks ago and stretches out today for a barn than has very strong stats (20%) with this angle. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding may find himself as the controlling speed in a race without much zip, so in his third start off a layoff the son of Hard Spun looks ready to graduate. Amadmadworld is improving with racing, shortens to a mile and returns to dirt. He should be on your ticket somewhere, at least as a back-up.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 3-Sai Con; 1-Uptown Warrior
Forecast: Sai Con is an eight-race maiden that has failed to deliver the goods at odds of less than 2-1 in each of his last three outings, so he’s certainly not one to trust. The Kingman gelding will get plenty of play again in this maiden claiming grass sprint, and in a field without much speed signed on he should have every chance on the front end in his first start since being transferred to the hot G. Papaprodromou barn. Uptown Warrior is an intriguing newcomer and may be the one to fear most. The C. Gaines-trained gelding shows a decent series of works on the training track that should have him fit enough, and if he leaves cleanly from the rail the sophomore gelding projects to be prominent throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Uptown Warrior (May 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Light coaxing only inside After Midnight (5f, 1:00.2h), breaking off in front and then finishing a half length best at the wire (workmate asked), final half mile in :23.2 and :47.4 for C. Gaines. Looks to have some run and should be more than fit enough by now. Fits with maiden claiming types.
View Workout Video
Pass Interference (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: C+
Ridden aggressively throughout inside Six Feet (same time) for Hanson while going a couple of ticks faster on our watches than given, splits of :23.3, :34.4 and :46.4 while appearing slightly second best (workmate subsequently ran second in debut vs. maiden claimers). Has bit of run but needs moderate foes
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Sai Con (May 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h TT). Grade: B-
Went off slowly under a hold and then finished quite well without being asked, splits of :25.3 and :49.3 on our watches. Usually weakens under pressure close home and remains a maiden after eight starts but this was a step in the right direction for a red hot barn,
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Pepperman (May 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.2hg). Grade: C+
Wasn’t really asked much but didn’t show a whole lot in three-horse gate drill with Barnfield (4f, :49.1hg) and Ten Thousand Steps (5f, 1:03.2hg), splits of :25 flat, :37.2 and :49.2. Bred to run long, so let’s see one first.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 6-Liberalism; 2-Red Panty Night
Forecast: Liberalism (TOC=6/5; ML=8/5) and Red Panty Night (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) finished two-three when they squared off in a restricted $16,000 sprint last month and they should get the bulk of the play in this below standard six-runner non-winners of two $25,000 abbreviated dash. The former lands the cozy outside draw and can pop and go or stalk and pounce, while the latter surely will be sent from the bell and could get brave if not pressured early. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that should otherwise be left alone.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Flint Stroll; 1-Spirit Maker
Forecast: Flint Stroll (TOC=2-1; ML=9/5) remains a maiden even though he was disqualified from a victory vs. maiden $50,000 foes two races back. Subsequently a solid runner-up at this starter’s allowance/$50,000 claiming level over a mile, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding bypasses maidens again while stretching out to nine furlongs and is the one to beat with a repeat of either one of his last two outings. Spirit Maker (TOC=9/5; ML=3-1) has been facing considerably stronger first-level allowance company without any real success but he is strong in the speed figure department and should be very competitive while dropping in for a tag for the first time. He’s a one-paced grinder with no real style but projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from his rail draw while switching to leading jockey J. Hernandez, so we have to use him.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 4-Redline; 2-Americaredwhiteblu; 5-Allaboutthemoney
Forecast: Three of the five entrants in this starter allowance main track miler have a legitimate look and are tough to separate, so we’ll pass the race while including all three in our rolling exotics. Redline (TOC=5/2; ML=9/5) and Americaredwhileblue (TOC=6/5; ML=8/5) were more than 11 lengths clear of the rest when finishing one-two in a similar affair over seven furlongs last month and both should run just as well if not better stretching out to two-turns. Redline bravely fought off his rival in that race while showing some quality, but the latter hadn’t been out for 11 months and may have come up a bit short. Meanwhile, Allaboutthemoney (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1), a good runner-up in a fast, highly rated restricted (nw-3) $20,000 sprint two weeks ago, is wheeled back and protected by new trainer V. Cerin (excellent stats with the first-off-the-claim angle), who employs bug boy A. Alsagoor to get a significant 10 pound break in the weights. The son of Into Mischief can handle the extra distance and if he can shake loose early he may get brave late.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Big Attraction; 6-Claddagh Cure
Forecast: The nightcap is a state-bred maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. Big Attraction was given an easy run when a non-threatening seventh in her debut over this course and distance in mid-April, settling off the pace and then finishing without undue pressure before galloping out with some interest. She should be much more serious today, so in a field in which most of the others have been exposed, let’s go with this daughter of Mr. Big, who seems certain to produce a forward move. The same can be said for the second-timer Claddagh Cure, a willingly fourth in a sprint prep in her debut in a productive race without being knocked about. D. Van Dyke stays aboard and should have this daughter of Shaman Ghost doing her best work from off the pace.
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