Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Ma France; 9-Velvet; 6-Peanut Butter Cup
Forecast: The opener is a wide-open maiden turf sprint for older fillies and mares offering several possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Ma France, second in her debut in Ireland earlier this year in an all-weather maiden sprint, makes her U.S. debut for top local grass trainer P. D’Amato following a series of decent workouts that should have her plenty fit. Due to various reasons (form, connections, etc.) she is certain to receive plenty of play and in fact is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite. We’ll put her on top but won’t single her. Velvet, off the track for almost 15 months, returns with a strong work tab that catches the eye for trainer R. Mandella, who shows superior stats (26%, massive ROI) with layoff runners. She’s four years old with only three prior outings but she has run well sprinting on grass in the past and figures to enjoy this extended sprint distance. Peanut Butter Cup displayed some talent last fall as a 2-year-old in decent local maiden grass races and could easily be a better type this time around. She returns as a first-time Lasix user and might be a late threat, so we’ll toss her in at 8-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Rebel Girl (May 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h). Grade: C+
Second best between horses down the lane with Whiskey Blue (5f, 1:01.4h) and O Brother (5f, 1:02.4h), never really asked much while coming the final quarter mile in ordinary :26 flat for L. Powell. Brought a ton of money ($285,000) at the 2021 OBS April sale, where she was impressive previewing a quarter mile in :10 flat but never made it to the post during her juvenile year and has been training locally for at least six months before finally making the entries. Doesn’t train like a sprinter but is bred for grass and may show a lot more when given a chance on the lawn.
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Quick Romance (June 10, Santa Anita, :49.2h TT)). Grade: B-
Broke off a length behind Barrister’s Ride (4f, :49.3h TT) in training track drill for S. Ruis and was a ridden a bit through the lane to finish about a head back at the wire, splits of :25.1 and :49.2, slow early but decent late. Has bit of run, probably not a sprinter, brought $500,000 as a yearling, likely a down-the-road type on grass.
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Wishing on a Star (June 4, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h). Grade: B-
Broke off slightly behind outside Empire Gal (5f, :59.4h) and hit the wire a head back while under mild urging (workmate going easily), final quarter mile :24.4. Been away since last October, looks about the same this time around. Probably needs turf.
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Ma France (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B-
Okay drill outside Rose Dawson (same time) slow early but workmanlike through the lane, final quarter mile :24.2 while being niggled at and chirped to, head-and-head at the wire. Ran well earlier this year (second of 14) in an all-weather maiden sprint in Ireland and should be a fit on this circuit, though she we doubt she’s a speed type. Bred to enjoy grass on both sides of her pedigree.
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Peanut Butter Cup (June 11, Santa Anita, 3f, :37hg). Grade: B-
A tad second best outside Havana Love (5f, 1:01.3hg) without being asked much in gate drill for R. Hess, Jr., splits of :23.4 and :35.1, much faster than given and looking fairly decent in the process. Displayed ability last summer at Del Mar going long on the grass and should return a bit better than she left. Pedigree suggests she’ll may be most comfortable over a distance of ground.
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Anacapa (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Worked alone on training track for Gaines and came the final three furlongs in :12 flat and :35.3, mild coaxing in the closing stages. Useful sort seems fit enough by now, probably not a real quick sort, perhaps more of a grinder.
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Anacapa (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade B
Solo gate work for C. Gaines, splits of :24.1, :35.4, :47.3 and 1:00 flat on our watches, never really asked much in steady drill, eased up at the wire in 1:14.4. Was $250,000 purchase at last year’s Fasig-Tipton Santa Anita sale but it’s taken a year to get her to the races. Route type?
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Jubilee Lake (June 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h TT). Grade: B
Solo training track drill for N. Drysdale, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.4, not really asked much through the lane. Away since November, didn’t show much at all in three juveniles starts but could be a bit better this time around.
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Velvet (June 8, Santa Anita, 4f, 1:14.1h). Grade: B
Fitness-building drill, ridden a bit through the lane while perhaps a tad second best at the wire inside Man Among Men (not really asked, up there), the continued out to seven furlong pole under some coaxing, splits of :22.4, :48 flat and 1:01.2 for the final five furlongs for R. Mandella. Been away for more than a year, seems to be coming back in good enough shape and may display improvement off the layoff. Form suggests she might be most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter.
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Charlotte Harbor (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :46.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, urged hard through the lane to record fast time while even outside Salta (same time) for K. Desormeaux, final three furlongs in :11.1 and :35.1. Okay work, perhaps not as good as final time might indicate.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Pequena Tormenta
Forecast: Pequena Tormenta was quite unlucky when a close third in a similar starter optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares last time out and a good case can be made that she was best when beaten. The daughter of Dialed In blew the start from the rail and was several lengths behind during the opening stages of the race, displayed sharpspeed to move up and be within striking range down the backstretch, went to climbing behind horses midway on the turn, angled widest of all entering the lane and then stayed on gamely through the lane. She shows a bullet half mile workout (:46 4/5, fastest of 79) since that race, and with just three outings on her resume she certainly has room for further improvement. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Violent Runner (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h). Grade: C
Solo main track drill for J. Sadler, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :38.3, very late changing leads despite being urged to do so. Crushed a soft maiden field by nine lengths last month but this move wasn’t very encouraging.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 4-Shut Up Michael; 2-Cowboy Charlie
Forecast: Shut Up Michael has established his preference as a late-running turf sprinter and gets a chance for a repeat score in this extended grass sprint for $75,000 sophomore claimers. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding has worked well since registering a career top victory over this course and distance last month despite a less-than-deal trip, so with clear sailing today he will have every chance for a repeat score. in time. Cowboy Charlie finished a close third behind our top pick last time out but removes blinkers and benefits from a significant seven point shift in the weights. As the projected controlling speed, the Stay Thirsty colt should have his chance to wire the field.
Notable Workouts:
Shut Up Michael (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a length in front inside Bolden (5f, 1:00.2h TT) and finished head-and-head with that one in solid work without undue pressure, splits of :24.2, :36.2 and 1:00.2 on our watches, nice drill while maintaining his form. Most effective as a late-running turf sprinter.
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Redline (May 28, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B-
Broke off far behind Forever Mo (5f, 1:02.3h) and collared that one late to prove clearly best by a length while being ridden through the lane, splits :24.2, :36.3 and 1:01.4 on our watches, a few tickets slower than given. Okay work, nothing great, may prefer one corner.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Corsica Flavor; 1-King Rob
Forecast: Corsica Flavor, purchased a year ago for $240,000, finished second in a maiden $50,000 affair in late February, returns almost four months later for $20,000 and clearly is being culled from the stable. The son of Mastery shows a bullet :59 4/5 drill (fastest of 24) 11 days ago, further illuminating the “for sale” sign. You have to use him under the assumption that he has at least one decent race left in him, though you can’t really be sure. King Rob, second in his last pair, lands the good rail and should inherit a good pace-prompting trip. He’s hit the board in five of eight career starts and should be in the fray once again. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play in a race that probably should otherwise be left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Miss O’Brien; 2-Iconic Sky; 3-Queen of Pompeii; 1-She’s a Joker
Forecast: The fifth race is a stronger-than-par allowance optional claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares. Miss O’Brien returned off a long layoff to handle a representative maiden field with authority over the local lawn last month and has looked noticeably sharp in the morning since. She is clearly a much better filly this year than last after joining the D. Blacker barn and with D. Van Dyke staying aboard she can be expected to produce a forward move and be dangerous despite the class hike. Iconic Sky earned a big figure winning an all-weather allowance sprint at Golden Gate Fields last month, and if she can duplicate that performance in her first try on turf the daughter of Vronsky will be a serious contender. Queen of Pompeii shows the route-to-sprint angle that we like and broke her maiden over this course and distance two races back with authority with a speed figures that makes her a major player. The daughter of Temple City projects to settle in mid-pack and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. She’s A Joker took advantage of an ideal rail-skimming trip to graduate over this grass course last month, and while she didn’t have a whole lot behind her and her number was soft, the daughter of Practical Joke seems likely to improve with added experience. Toss her in as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
Queen of Pompeii (June 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4h TT). Grade: B
Easy solo five furlong training track drill for C. Gaines, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37 flat, never really asked much. Maintains her edge.
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Miss O’Brien (4f, :49.4h) TT). Grade: B+
Stout restraint early and never asked through the lane, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.3, quite sharp. Comes off clever comeback win and should step forward again next time.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 4-Tamarando Coast; 6-Lucy L; 7-Lady Maryann
Forecast >: State-bred maiden fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fifth race, with the first-timer Tamarando Coast deserving of a reasonable chance at 6-1 on the morning line. The J. Bonde-trained filly looked fairly decent in a gate work May 30 (see below), and in a race in which the main players all have lower-than-par speed figures a fresh face may be the way to go. Lucy L is a another first-timer that qualifies as a “must use.” She has done some solid work leading up to her debut for trainer T. Yakteen, and with leading rider J. Hernandez taking the call the daughter of Informed should be very competitive first crack out of the box. Lady Maryann has the benefit of two prior races and is the most dangerous of the known element. A distant second in a fast race last month while more than six lengths clear of the rest, the daughter of Curlin to Mischief should be on or near the lead throughout, and if she can shake loose early without pressure she may be hard to run down.
Notable Workouts:
Tamarando Coast (May 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade: B
Went off slowly but really picked it up entering the far turn and finished under coaxing in strong fashion, splits of :25 flat, :36.1 and :47.3 for J. Bonde. Sophomore filly has enough ability to act with moderate state-bred maidens and seems fit enough. Worth a look in the right spot.
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Lucy L (June 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B
Slightly second but was not asked outside Armagnac (same time) looking pretty nice for an un-raced state-bred sophomore filly, splits of :23.1 and :47.4, a couple of ticks quicker than given. Definitely can run some and should be a live item in her debut.
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Sapadilla (May 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: C+
Broke off far in front of Eleuthera (5f, 1:00.3h) but was no match for that one in the final furlong while being ridden, two lengths back at the wire, splits of :23.3 :49 for the final half mile. Note that the official work tab has these two official times; Sapadilla should have received the slower final time
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RACE 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Macadamia
Forecast: Macadamia makes her U.S. debut for P. D’Amato, and as a two-time Group-1 winner from Brazil she seems likely to outclass this first-level allowance field. The local workouts have been especially impressive, so we’re expecting a major performance by this daughter of Hat Trick for a barn that always does well with foreign (mostly European) imports. The first-time Lasix user is listed at 5/2 on the morning line and at that price she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Carpe Vinum (June 6, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B
Always a good worker and was strictly on her own, splits of :12 flat and :36.4 for the final three furlongs, plenty left late. Maintains her form.
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Macadamia (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off just behind outside Gold Phoenix (same time) and proved slightly best approaching the wire, very slow early but strong in the final stages, splits of :26 flat, :38.4 and 1:02.3 on our watches. Import from Brazil looks like the real deal and is plenty fit for her local debut for P. D’Amato. Was multiple Group-1 winner in South America.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Law Abidin Citizen; 3-Apprehend
Forecast: Law Abidin Citizen won at this $50,000 allowance optional claiming level last month and was claimed by trainer Eddie Truman, who wheels him back for the same price. This barn can be aggressive with its new merchandise, so the lack of a class hike makes sense with a $69,000 purse being offered as an inducement to stay put. Apprehend, away since New Year’s Eve when he won a maiden special weight sprint at Oaklawn Park with a solid figure, sports an impressive series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit and ready. The son of Arrogate isn’t a quick type but at this six and one-half furlong distance he’ll have every chance to settle early and blast home late. We’ll give Law Abidin Citizen the edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts
Houndstooth (June 6, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h TT). Grade: B+
Came the final five furlongs in :23.4, :35.3 and :59 flat in solo training track drill for S. Miyadi, ridden hard and urged through the lane to finish all out. Excellent final time but was asked for her best. Form suggest she prefers the dirt.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Bolden
Forecast: Bolden returned better than he left when remaining unbeaten in two starts last month with a thoroughly convincing six length win in a state-bred allowance sprint that produced a speed figure better than par for this open allowance affair. The son of Square Eddie is plenty fast but can be content to stalk and pounce if the race flow dictates. Two bullet workouts since raced tell us he’s got plenty more to give, so even though this will be his first try on turf he should offer value in the win pool and in the various exotics at his morning line of 8/5, assuming you get can get it.
Notable Workouts:
Bolden (June 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, finished under a stout hold while stride-for-stride with Shut Up Michael (same time), final quarter in :24 flat, very nice. Unbeaten in two starts and should be tough to beat once again on the raise.
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Rocky Gibraltar (June 11, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: C+
Ridden and urged hard through the lane to be even but slightly second best with Little Rachel (same time), final half mile in :23.2 and :48.4. Recently gelded but looked about the same, probably would appreciate a class drop.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Winhappy
Forecast: Winhappy won a fast, highly-rated $20,000 claiming sprint at Del Mar last July and was haltered by trainer P. Aguirre in what appeared to be a timely claim. However, the new connections were unable to run him back, and finally, after 11 months of inactivity, the speedy 4-year-old gelding returns at that same level in a field he should be able to outrun. The fact that the son of Runhappy is waiver protected makes this placement quite logical. With a clean break from his rail post he projects as the controlling speed, and at anywhere near his morning line of 6-1 he will offer excellent wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:10 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Breakfast Ride; 2-Missed Call
Forecast: Breakfast Ride earned a strong number when easily dispatching an outclassed maiden $40,000 field on the main track last month and today, in a sign of confidence, he is protected against a starter allowance field that he should be able to handle if he can duplicate his dirt form on grass. Worth noting is a very impressive workout (see below) that gives strong indication that the son of Distorted Humor is ready to step forward again. Missed Call is the one to fear most. The Dialed In gelding scored at first asking over this course and distance earlier this month when, after a bit of slow start, he rallied from mid-pack to win going away like a nice sort. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a very slight preference on top to Breakfast Ride.
Notable Workouts:
Breakfast Ride (June 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Even but best outside Southern Horse (same time) for J. Sadler, final three furlongs in a solid :36.2 while breezing every step of the way (workmate asked). Got a confidence-building win with dropped into a maiden claimer and appears ready to produce significant forward move based on this drill.
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