Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Distractedprincess; 7-Angel of Freedom
Forecast: 3-Distractedprincess has trained fairly well for her debut and lands a modest spot for older maiden fillies and mares. She should find herself on or near a modest early pace and given that type of trip should be a major factor throughout. Angel of Freedom is a six race maiden and not really getting any better, but she’s drawn nicely outside and is a guaranteed a soft stalking trip. The route to sprint angle and she’s hit the board in four of her five career starts.
Notable Workouts:
Distractedprincess (December 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
View Workout Video
In company and slightly second best with Wharton (same time, entered in today’s 6th race) for B. Baffert, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :47.4 and 1:00.1 on our watches, ridden most of the way but not bad for yet-to-start maiden. Has some ability and should be reasonably live in a field with older fillies and mares.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-King Apollo; 4-Town Boy; 3-Fowler Blue
Forecast: King Apollo (TOC=4/5; ML=2-1) graduated nicely at Los Alamitos in his second start since being claimed by K. Mulhall for $50,000 and earned vastly improved speed figure in the process. Based on pedigree this stretch out to a mile shouldn’t be an issue, so we’re expecting the son of Palace Malice to be tough right back in this starter optional claimer for juveniles. Town Boy (TOC=6-1; M:=6-1) is much slower on speed figures than King Apollo, but he’s trained quite well since graduating for $32,000 at Del Mar last time out and can be expected to produce a strong forward move for new trainer P. Eurton. He should be on or near the lead throughout. Fowler Blue (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) is another that has looked pretty nice in the a.m. of late and exiting a much tougher race (the King Glorious S. at Los Alamitos). He projects to earn at least a minor share and is worth including on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
Notable Workouts:
Town Boy (December 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Nice and easy for recently claimed colt for P. Eurton, breezing through the lane while looking sharp and eager. We’re expecting to see improvement based on this drill. Nicely-bred, is coming around, and should prove to be a useful claim.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Feeling Grazeful; 2-Self Isolation; 3-All Dialed In
Forecast: This maiden state-bred sprint for older fillies and mares came up softer than par and doesn’t really offer much to work with. Feeling Grazeful returns to dirt and a repeat of here runner-up effort two races back probably should be good enough. In a race lacking in early speed, the daughter of Grazen should find herself on or near the lead through soft early fractions. Self Isolation and All Dialed In, two-three finishers in a similar affair at Los Alamitos earlier this month, should be included on your ticket as well. The former earned a career top number when missing by a neck, and not much more will be needed today, while the latter was making her debut, closed with interest, and has every right to improve today.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Godsend; 2-McLaren Vale; 5-Top Secret
Forecast: Godsend ran well to be third in a tough raced at Del Mar and a repeat of that race today should be good enough. He was disappointing in his most recent workout, though, so we’re not entirely sure which version of this Midshipman colt we’ll see today. McLaren Vale, listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, has worked okay for B. Baffert, and while we suspect he can’t beat a really good maiden, there may not be one in here. Top Secret, a first-timer by Uncle Mo, has trained like a route type for R. Mandella. You can toss him in as a saver or a back-up, but we believe he’s a down-the-road type.
Notable Workouts:
Godsend (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Outworked by Khantaro D’Oro (5f, 1:01h) while under pressure late and weakening in the final stages to wind up more than a length behind at the wire. Was hoping for better after a promising run vs. tough maidens at Del Mar last time out.
McLaren Vale (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Best in a team gate drill with Kerouac (5f, 1:01.3hg) while being ridden some throughout, steady splits, decent enough but nothing more. Has some run, seems fit, probably can’t beat a real good maiden at this time for B. Baffert. Was $625,000 yearling by Gun Runner.
Top Secret (December 12, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
May have been a tad the best working inside Q B One (same time), splits of :24.3, :36.3, 1:01.1 and 1:13.4 from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole. Has some ability but isn’t a win-early sprint type. May need some racing and a distance of ground before showing his best stuff.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 4-California Street; 2-Italiano
Forecast: Just five runners showed up for this $32,000 extended sprint, with California Street (TOC=2/5; ML=6/5) the logical top pick even though the class drop following a $40,000 isn’t a confidence-building move. However, if the veteran gelding now in T. Yakteen’s barn shows up with anything close to his best stuff he’ll regain his winning form. This seven furlong distance is perfect for his style. Bay Area shipper Italiano, TOC=9/2; ML=9/5) takes a significant class drop but remains above his claim level and appears extremely well-meant. He’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and has won or placed in five of his last six starts.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Got Thunder
Forecast: After finishing an excellent runner-up in a strong maiden sprint at Del Mar and working very well since that race, Got Thunder should be a heavy choice to graduate in this maiden dash for juveniles. The son of Arrogate was used hard on the rail in that outing last month and today lands the cozy outside post while retaining F. Prat. Simply stated, he’s the surest winner on the program.
Notable Workouts:
Got Thunder (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Easily disposed of Delta Wind (5f, 101.4h) for Sadler, stalking that one outside and going by when ready in the final furlong without being asked, final quarter mile in a sharp :23.4. Ran quite well in debut, seems certain to improve with experience and distance and remains a very bright prospect.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Moment of Peace; 6-Flying Drummer
Forecast: Moment of Peace (TOC=5/2; ML=5/2) finished steadily to be fourth in his debut and seems certain to step forward in a big way with that bit of experience behind him. The son of Tapit should love today’s two-turn mile trip, has trained well since his debut, and rates the edge over the other main contender, Flying Drummer (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5). The latter showed good promise when second in his first two outings, was most recently overmatched in the American Pharoah S.-G1 during the fall meeting, but returns facing maidens, has trained solidly for his return, and could find himself as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip, he could take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Moment of Peace (December 11, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Worked inside Dream Princess (4f, :48.2h) and was noticeably best for Sadler, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :36.2. Have to think this Tapit colt will improve with distance and experience. Useful type, at the very least.
Flying Drummer (December 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Inside Montebello (same time) for B. Baffert while working from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole and proving best under some late urging, splits of :24.3, :49.2 and 1:02 flat. Looks okay after being freshened since the fall, has a chance to improve when returned to the maiden ranks.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Took Charge
Forecast: Took Charge (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) earned a career top speed figure when winning a first-level allowance sprint at Del Mar last month and has trained in spectacular fashion since. The R. Baltas-trained gelding looks more than capable of repeating on the raise, especially in a race that lacks his kind of early speed. A repeat of his last figure beats these, so let’s make him a good play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Took Charge (December 17, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: A-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, razor sharp solo main track drill for R. Baltas, strong through the lane while finishing with a ton left. Earned career top speed figure last time out and looks equally sharp if not better now.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: C
Use: 6-Careless Kitten; 7-Irresistibly Sexy; 1-Settecento
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Anything goes, and nothing would surprise us. Careless Kitten actually finished first in a race two runs back but was disqualified, so there’s that. He’s also removing blinkers, a good angle for us. We’ll put him on top but have little to no confidence in the selection. Irresistibly Sexy removes blinkers and has closed well on occasion. That’s more than most of these can say. The first-timer Settecento has some decent workout times on his resume. The one time we saw him in the morning (last summer) he didn’t look like much, but he’s probably no worse than the majority in the field. Throw him in, in fact, throw them all in.
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