Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Fore Flag; 3-Just About Enough; 5-Cool Acclaim
Forecast: The Saturday opener is an inscrutable California-bred maiden race over nine furlongs on grass. Most of these have been thoroughly exposed, so anything goes. Fore Flag is a one-paced grinder with seven previous outings and speed figures that are, well, what they are. He does strike us as a gelding that will appreciate this nine furlong trip, so by process of elimination he gets top billing at 4-1 on the morning line. Additionally, he gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera, and that may make the winning difference. Just About Enough, in the money in three of his last four outings, might appreciate patient tactics and given that type of trip he should fire his best shot. On pure numbers, he’s a major player but he’s also an eight-race maiden. Cool Action was extremely rank early and then faded out of the picture when well-beaten in a similar affair last month. His best chance is to inherit the role as the controlling speed, and if such a trip materializes he could get brave and be tough to catch. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Elector; 2-McLaren Vale
Forecast: The two main players in this first-level allowance extended sprint are drawn inside, with big figure maiden winner Elector and the first-time Lasix user McLaren Vale certain to get the bulk of the play. Elector (TOC=6-1; ML=8/5) stumbled badly at the start and was eliminated when well-meant in his debut but then showed his true from with a fast, highly-rated, and thoroughly convincing maiden victory in a race that produced next out wins from the second and third place finishers. In a race that projects to have soft early fractions, the son of Constitution should be quick enough to preserve the rail as the controlling speed and then be tough catch from there. McLaren Vale (TOC=6/5; ML=9/5) , a respectable third in the San Vicente S.-G2 after a moderate maiden debut win earlier this meeting, returns off a 10 week vacation and clearly is the one to fear most. Now in the S. McCarthy barn after being transferred from the B. Baffert stable, the son of Gun Runner should secure a stalking position and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main punch going to Elector.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Lookin So Lucky; 1-Song of Fire
Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Lookin So Lucky (TOC=9/2; ML=4/2) has a prior win over the local lawn and speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. The class drop to her lowest level ever is warranted based on her recent form and against this group the daughter of Lookin At Lucky appears to have found her friends. Song of Fire (TOC=6/5; ML=3-1), a first-off-the-claim for low profile trainer S. Morfin (good stats with this angle), lands the rail and might find herself as the controlling speed if she’s aggressively handled leaving the gate. She was disappointing as the favorite when fading to fourth after pressing the pace but seems capable of rebounding if given her preferred trip. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Lookin So Lucky.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 4-Houndstooth; 6-Happy Runner
Forecast: Houndstooth has much going for him in this maiden $62,500 sprint for older horses. The five-year-old with just two prior starts produced a significant forward move when fourth in a much stronger straight maiden sprint last time out, and with the addition of blinkers, the son of Uncle Mo is the likely controlling speed. Also, the figure he earned last time out far exceeds par for this level, and with the addition of Lasix the R. Mandella-trained gelding seems set to graduate. Happy Runner can be used as a back-up or a saver on a ticket or two. He shows the route-to-sprint angle, lands the cozy outside post, and projects to inherit a soft stalking position. He’ll need to produce a forward move to beat our top pick, though.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 1-Doitforandrew; 3-Barsabas
Forecast: Doitforandrew (TOC=5-1; ML=7/2) has been victimized by a pair of rough trips in his first two U.S. outings but he continues to very impressive in the a.m. so we’re going to give the P. D’Amato-trained import one more chance in this first-level allowance turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds. The English-bred gelding is assured a ground-saving trip from his rail post and seems likely to display improved tactical speed in a race that projects to have easy early fractions. At 7/2 on the morning line, the son of Ribchester offers a reasonable gamble. Barsabas (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) pressed the pace before weakening late when fifth in the Pasadena S. over this course and distance in mid-February. Freshened and showing just three workouts in the two month interim, the son of Tale of the Cat may have a condition question but off his best race he’s right there with these. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Doitforandrew getting strong preference on top.
Notable Workouts:
Doitforandrew (April 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h TT). Grade: A-
Full of run through the lane in solo training track drill, final quarter mile in :22.4, never asked, sharp as a tack. Hasn’t shown his best yet in the p.m. but with a trouble-free trip next time he should produce a significant amount of improvement.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Sweet California 10-Alex’s Girl
Forecast: California Girl has burned money as the favorite in her last two starts, most recently finishing off the board as the even money favorite in a similar maiden $50,000 claiming sprint here last month. However, with blinkers being added and at this shortened this five and one-half furlong distance, the daughter of Danzing Candy deserves one more chance. Among the newcomers, the D. Hofmans-trained Alex’s Girl looks intriguing. Bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree (Idiot Proof x Tribal Rule) and training a bit better than the workout times might indicate, she certainly won’t have to be a world beater to act at this level, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll include her in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Alex’s Girl (March 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h). Grade: B-
Breezing early and looking okay late, as maiden-claiming type was much best over Justin’s Lady (5f, 1:03.4h), splits of :24.4, :36.2 and 1:03 flat on our watches. Obviously no world beater but seems like a trier and should be competitive with soft foes.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Irish Heatwave; 1-Fly the Sky; 6-Liberal
Forecast: Five of the nine entrants in this starter’s allowance ($25,000) nine furlong grass grab bag exit the same March 19 race. A similar blanket finish can be expected today, especially in a race that projects to have easy early fractions. Irish Heatwave (TOC=3-1; ML=3-1), a close third in the aforementioned race won by Liberal, is drawn nicely inside and could find himself in a favorable pace-pressing/forcing position if allowed to utilize his tactical speed. He’s a former stakes winner who has won gate-to-wire in the past, so we suggest his connections strongly consider employing that strategy. Fly the Sky (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) can parlay his rail draw into a ground-saving trip, and with a repeat of his race-before-last the son of Boisterous will have a legitimate chance to regain his winning form. He’s a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and a perfect one-for-one over at this nine furlong distance. Liberal (TOC=7/2; ML=7/2) managed to win that March 19 cavalry charge with a strong late kick, and although he’s picking up two lbs. off that win the veteran Irish-bred gelding could be capable of winning right back with good racing luck. The concern is that he’s winless in five starts (with just one third place finish) at this nine furlong distance.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:42 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 10-Smoothlikebuttah; 8-Smilin Evie; 4-Respectfully
Forecast: This California-bred first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares has many possibilities but nothing to trust, so best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Smoothlikebuttah (TOC=8/5; ML=5-1) has solid recent form and removes blinkers (like that angle) but she is 1-for-26 during her career with 13 seconds and thirds. Obviously, she’s suspect under pressure in the final furlong but with clear sailing outside she just might fall into a win. Smilin’ Evie (TOC=5-1; ML=6-1) sports the always-dangerous route to sprint angle, and while she’s slower on speed figures than we’d prefer her to be, the R. Baltas-trained filly is lightly-raced with plenty of room to improve. A recent bullet five furlong training track drill (1:00h, fastest of eight) catches the eye. Respectfully (TOC=5-1; ML=10-1) has run quite well over this main track in the past, and although she was beaten at even money in a mixed breed affair at Los Alamitos two weeks ago the daughter of Smiling Tiger has races that put her squarely in the fray at this level. At 10-1 on the morning line, she’s worth tossing in.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:13 PT Grade:
Use (in order of preference): 3-Cash Equity; 4-Hong Kong Harry; 7-Comradery
Forecast: Trainer P. D’Amato has two major contenders in this second-level allowance turf miler, with recent U.S. debut winner Hong Kong Harry (TOC=7/2; ML=2-1) and multiple French stakes-placed import Cash Equity (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) having the credentials to win. ‘Harry had little behind him when scoring at 50 cents on the dollar last month in a softer spot but did it stylishly and should be quite competitive right back despite the class hike. However, on pure form, Cash Equity is the better of the two and actually appeared slightly best in a team drill (see below) just six days ago. The son of Toronado shows a work tab that should have him plenty fit, so as a first-time Lasix user with a history running well fresh he’ll get the edge on top. Also worth including on your ticket is Comradery (TOC=3-1; ML=10-1), making his third start off a layoff and likely to produce another forward move. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the J. Sadler-trained horse should be doing his best work from off the pace and with help up front seems likely to outrun his 10-1 morning line odds. The analytics give him a real good look.
Notable Workouts:
Cash Equity (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front of Hong Kong Harry (5f, 1:00h TT) and held that one at bay through the lane, finishing about a neck in front with neither really being asked at any stage, splits of :24.2 and :59.4 on our watches, very sharp drill. French invader was a stakes-quality performer overseas and has been given a sufficient foundation to be fit for a major effort in his U.S. debut. Workmate went well, too, but was about a neck back at the wire and the same galloping out.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 5:44 PT Grade: B+
Use (In order of preference): 10-Hero Status; 3-Special Ride
Forecast: Hero Status, a $270,000 2021 OBS March sale purchase, finally makes it to the races more than a year later and has trained like he’s ready to verify the promise he displayed when he smoked a quarter of a mile during the preview session in :21 flat. Recent workouts have been equally impressive, so with a clean break and a clear trip from his outside draw this M. Glatt-trained son of Flatter should be hard to beat at first asking. Additionally, the barn has strong stats with the first-time starter angle (19% with a powerful ROI). Special Ride may have been best when finishing second in a $150,000 claimer in his debut last month. The son of Candy Ride found his best stride too late when rallying to miss by a neck and today he’ll get an extra half furlong to work with. This straight maiden field is tougher but the speed figure he earned in his first start is close to today’s par, so he should fit nicely.
Notable Workouts:
Hero Status (April 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B+
Solo gate work for M. Glatt, splits of :24.1, :36.1, :47.1 and 1:00.1 before easing up to the wire in 1:13.3, extremely sharp while preparing for debut. Looks the part of a quality colt and appears plenty fit and ready.
View Workout Video
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