Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For added commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pistachio Princess; 7-Go Greta
Forecast: The Friday opener is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares that has a strong potential for a chaotic result. Go Greta takes a significant drop in class and has numbers that are better than par for this level, but she’s winless in the U.S., with her only prior victory earned over an all-weather surface in England. At 9/5 on the morning line, she’s the one to beat but perhaps not one to trust. Pistachio Princess has a few angles in her chart that make her intriguing at 15-1 on the morning line. She’s stretching out from the rail, removes blinkers, switches to J. Hernandez, and shows a strong, healthy series of workouts that should have her cranked up for a major effort off a seven week vacation. She’s also dropping to her lowest level ever and projects as the controlling speed, though her ability to get the trip is unknown. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play; if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
Notable Workouts:
1-Pistachio Princess (September 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B-
No blinkers, okay drill for moderate claiming sophomore filly in the J. Periban barn, responding to some urging through the lane to finish reasonably well, final half mile in :23.2 and :48.3. Bred for turf and should improve when realistically spotted.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 1-Rowangoestohollywood
Forecast: Here’s another restricted claimer, this one for $16,000 (nw-3) fillies and mares over a mile on the main track. Rowangoestohollywood moves up a notch for new trainer A. Sherman after missing by a neck when well-clear of the rest at Los Alamitos last month. A similar effort today should be good enough over a track that has played quite kindly to her pace-setting/forcing style so far this meeting. Additionally, she gets a break in the weights with the switch to promising bug boy D. Herrera, so at 7/2 morning line the daughter of Bayern is our top pick and rolling exotic single in a race that doesn’t appear to offer a viable alternative.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Liar Liar; 5-Best Chance; 6-Bee Catcher
Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a starter’s allowance turf miler that projects to have a faster-than-par early pace. Best Chance likes to lag early and then finish late and will get the patient ride he needs from J. Bravo. The J. Sadler-trained colt has two career victories – both over the Santa Anita turf course - and after narrowly missing in a similar starter’s allowance race at Del Mar last time out with a career top number the son of Quality Road shows a healthy series of recent workouts to have him primed for a major effort. Liar Liar never really has been our kind of horse – he’s been a beaten favorite a number of times – but this will be his first start since being gelded so improvement is possible. The switch to F. Prat always must be considered a positive and from the rail the Irish-bred in P. Miller’s barn should settle into an ideal mid-pack ground-saving trip and then have every chance to tag the speed. Bee Catcher, away after being claimed out of a winning effort in a restricted (nw-2) $35,000 seller at Gulfstream Park in January, returns protected in a sign of confidence by new trainer D. Blacker, and given the likelihood of a fast pace he should be heard from late. These are the three we’ll be including in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Best Chance.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Perfect Ice Storm; 5-Lady O’Prado; 10-Chollima
Forecast: Bottom-rung $10,000 claiming fillies and mares occupy the first leg of the Pick-6, a contentious main track miler that requires some coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Perfect Ice Storm returns to her winning level, switches to F. Prat, lands a good inside post position, and can improve at Santa Anita, where she’s a two-time winner with speed figures good enough to beat this field. At 4-1 on the morning line she may offer some wagering value. Chollima is the one to fear most. Her outside post does her no favors, but she’s always been genuine and consistent, having finished first or second in nine of 12 career outings. Also, she finished well ahead of our top pick when they met at Los Alamitos two weeks ago and. Lady O’Prado crushed a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 field at Del Mar in early September in a career top performance and is realistically lowered to this $10,000 open affair. She projects to settle in the second flight and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Viazar; 5-Shizaam; 6-Deise Delight
Forecast: Shizaam strikes us as a progressive filly, and while she’ll need to step forward again following a win over a maiden $50,000 filed at Del Mar in early August the J. Sadler-trained import is lightly-raced with upside that most of the others in here don’t have. This starter allowance/optional claiming turf miler should within her scope so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll give her top billing. Deise Delight was out-footed in a recent turf sprint vs. tougher but stretches out to a distance she can handle, is reunited with F. Prat, and shows the blinkers off angle that we always like. If not pressured up front, the D. O’Neill-trained filly could take this group a long way. Viazar didn’t get the best of runs when runner-up at 40 cents on the dollar vs. similar at Del Mar in August and certainly is capable of better. She’s won over this course and distance in the past and projects to be running on strongly late.
Notable Workouts:
5-Shizaam (October 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade B-
Solo training track drill while under mild coaxing through the lane, final three furlongs in :36.4, useful move though failing to change leads through the lane. Been away for two months following a maiden claiming turf win at Del Mar but seems fit enough and should have another forward move in her.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-I Know Cash Flow; 7-Sauls Call
Forecast: After winning a similar starter’s allowance sprint at Los Alamitos as an odds-on favorite, Sauls Call is wheeled back on short rest in this six furlong main track dash that likely will see him leave at lower than his morning line of 8/5, The only concern is the quick turnaround for a colt that was a voided claim out of an easy maiden claiming win two runs back. On the plus side, he’s being protected, so let’s assume he will fire another good shot while seeking his third straight score. I Know Cash Flow finished eight lengths behind our top pick when third in his debut at Del Mar in mid-August but then added blinkers and improved to break his maiden with a 15 point Beyer speed figure increase in his most recent outing at Los Alamitos. He’ll likely settle in the second flight and then have his chance to pick up the leaders under F. Prat. Preference on top goes to Sauls Call but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gidgetta; 3-Bruja Escarlata; 4-Beautiful Ballad
Forecast: Bruja Escarlata had her unbeaten streak snapped in the Daisycutter H. at Del Mar in a race in which her far outside 10-hole post position proved too much to overcome. Better drawn today in post three and facing an easier second-level allowance field, the daughter of Street Boss is a perfect one-for-one over this course and distance, can fire fresh, and should regain her best form in her first outing since late July. Gidgetta has a prior win over this course and distance and has looked good in recent drills, so we’re expecting a major effort from this prototype late-running turf sprinter. F. Prat, who has won on her in the past, stays aboard, knows her well, and will produce the R. Baltas-trained mare when the field straightens for home. The versatile Beautiful Ballad has two very good recent races following a long layoff and clearly has found her niche as a turf sprinter. An excellent $32,000 claim by P. Aguirre two runs back, the daughter Maclean’s Music won on the lead the day she was haltered and then rallied wide from the back of the field to just miss by a neck in the same race Gidgetta exits. Perhaps most effective when held up early, the 5-year-old mare gets an extra furlong to work with today, switches to J. Hernandez, and looked fine in an easy recent training track drill to have her set for another big effort.
Notable Workouts:
1-Gidgetta (October 2, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h TT). Grade: B
Solo training track drill for R. Baltas, in hand through the lane, final quarter mile in a smart :23.2 while holding her sharp, consistent form. She’s most effective as a late-running turf sprinter and has second-level allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
3-Bruja Escarlata (October 3, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: B-
Team drill for J. Sadler outside Five Pics Please (same time), breaking off a length behind and then though late changing leads finishing head-and-head at the wire under a nice hold, splits of :23.2 and :48 flat. Handles any surface.
View Workout Video
4-Beautiful Ballad (September 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, breezing throughout finishing with plenty left, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :36.4 while ticking over for P. Aguirre. Versatile sort can be tough on the front end or from off the pace and seems set for another good effort vs. second-level allowance/optional claiming fillies and mares.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-I Got a Gal; 8-Aqua Julie
Forecast: Juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in an open affair dominated by several first-time starters that have trained well enough to be considered contenders. That said, I Got a Gal has the benefit of a prior run and displayed enough quickness in her debut last month at Del Mar to make her the one to catch and perhaps the one to beat. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile was inside behind a wall of horses when full of run entering the lane and then lost her steam in the final furlong to wind up fifth, beaten seven lengths, but with that bit of experience behind her the P. Eurton-trained filly should be able to step forward considerably for a stable that sports superior stats (26%, massive ROI) with the second-time starter angle. Aqua Julia represents stranger danger from the R. Baltas barn. The daughter of Exaggerator worked half in a bullet 47 1/5 seconds at San Luis Rey Downs six days ago and attracts F. Prat, so at 4-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll sink or swim using just these two while trying to beat the B. Baffert-trained morning line favorite Brocade, a $750,000 debuting daughter of Into Mischief who has trained just okay leading up to her debut.
Notable Workouts:
2-So It Would Seem (October 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: B-
A tad the best in gate drill with Phenom (same time) for P. D’Amato, hustled a bit early before finishing under mild coaxing, a long neck in front when eased up after five furlongs, early splits of :24.1 and :48 flat. Has bit of run but doesn’t seem to be particularly quick based on this drill.
View Workout Video
9-Brocade (September 24, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: B-
In company from gate with unnamed B. Baffert-trained stablemate (Brooklynsway, dam’s name) and finished almost a length in front after spotting her mate a few lengths at the break following a slow start. It must be noted that in previous gate drills she seemed to break just fine. Into Mischief filly was an expensive ($750,000) yearling purchase but probably isn’t one of the barn’s top prospects and may not be one to trust coming out of the gate.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Badger Kitten; 4-Floral Essence; 5-Quinevere
Forecast: The three listed above look pretty similar and are hard to separate in this maiden claiming $50,000 turf miler for fillies and mares, so we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while otherwise sitting out the race. Floral Essence makes the always-significant class drop from maiden special weight company and has numbers that are slightly above the other contenders. The C. Sise-trained filly is a one-paced type but should draft into a comfortable stalking position and have every chance to grind out a win.. Quinevere and Badger Kitten were two-three finishers in a similar affair at Del Mar at Del Mar in August and neither has to improve much to win today.
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